Friday, August 10, 2007

A break from the extreme heat...

The weekend will bring a break from the extreme heat across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Temperatures here in Central Virginia should average in the upper 80s each afternoon, with lower levels of humidity. Dew points, which have been in the 70s much of this week, are forecast in the mid 60s Saturday and the lower 60s Sunday.

Temperatures should reach the lower 90s early next week, with a thunderstorm or two popping up each afternoon Monday and Tuesday.

Will the extreme heat return?

There are signs that the upper ridge that brought the extreme heat and will shift west over the weekend, could return the extreme heat to Virginia by Wednesday and Thursday. This means temperatures could soar into the mid and upper 90s. However, most of our longer range computer data suggests that a more powerful front will arrive later Thursday. This should "cool" us down again by the end of the new work week.

The latest on the tropics...

There's still very little going on in the tropics. We're watching a disorganized area of showers along a broad surface trough in the western Caribbean. Any development would be very slow. Otherwise, we can't find anything significant across the Atlantic. NOAA came out with an updated seasonal forecast this week, and it still shows above average activity. We're actually a bit ahead of schedule, with three named storms so far. The average date for the third named storm in the Atlantic is August 21st.

Wednesday, August 8, 2007

A day for the record books...

Wow, what a scorcher Wednesday was across Virginia and the Mid-Atlantic! The temperature at Richmond International Airport reached 104 degrees, breaking a record for the date and tying for fourth on the all-time list. It was the hottest day in 30 years and the hottest August day since 1918! The heat index reached between 110 and 115 across the region and many record temperatures were broken from the Carolinas north to Baltimore. The temperature at 11:00 at night was still 93 degrees in Richmond, with a heat index of 100!

The following are the hottest days on record in Richmond:
1) 107 degrees on August 6, 1918
2) 106 degrees on August 7, 1918
3) 105 degrees on July 6, 1977
4) 104 degrees on August 8, 2007, as well as August 26, 1952, July 10, 1936 and July 21, 1930

Some other selected record highs across the region included:
Norfolk, VA 100
Roanoke, VA 100
National Airport 102
BWI Airport 102
Dulles Airport 101
Danville, VA 101
Blacksburg, VA 94
Bluefield, WV 91
New Bern, NC 99
Florence, SC 106
Greenville, SC 104
Columbia, SC 105
Augusta, GA 103
Atlantic City, NJ 101

More extreme heat is in the forecast through the end of the work week. The records at RIC are 101 degrees for Thursday, set in 1930, and 100 degrees on Friday, set in 1900.

There is some relief on the way this weekend. A "cool" front sliding into the area from the northwest will likely trigger a few thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening, and temperatures will average in the upper 80s to around 90 Saturday and Sunday.

In the longer term...

The upper ridge responsible for this extreme heat will shift back west to the Plains states for the time being, but our temperatures are still likely to be 90+ much of next week. We'll have to wait and see if the ridge slides back east down the road, which could bring more extreme heat to the East Coast. Meanwhile, the tropics are extremely quiet. At this point, there are no tropical waves that bear watching...but that too could always change, so stay tuned...