More action in the tropics...

The cluster of thunderstorms in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico became Tropical Storm Humberto today. This storm will make landfall overnight on the Upper Texas coast and then move inland over Louisiana and Mississippi, bringing significant rainfall amounting to 5 to 10 inches there. The abundant moisture may be some good news here in Virginia, as an approaching cold front will hopefully draw this moisture north into our area on Friday. The front is scheduled to arrive Friday night and I expect some showers and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon and continue into the night. Potentially this could be some beneficial rain, considering the lack of rain we've had over the last two and a half weeks. By Saturday morning, the front will be exiting our area, with more dry and pleasant weather behind it for the weekend.

Meanwhile, way out in the Atlantic, the other tropical wave we've been watching very closely has become Tropical Depression #8. I expect this to become Tropical Storm Ingrid as it moves west-northwest over the next 24-48 hours. By the way, if you're wondering where the name Ingrid came from, it replaced Iris, which was retired in 2001. In fact, the "I" names were retired in the Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf four years in a row from 2001-2004. The retired names were Iris (2001), Isidore (2002), Isabel (2003) and Ivan (2004).

The heat gives way...

The cold front that moved through Central Virginia didn't produce a whole lot of rain. In fact, here at CBS 6, we only received .05" from the late afternoon showers. The front will move southward into the Carolinas, and we have some very nice weather to enjoy the next couple of days, with lower humidity and afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s.

Next front arrives Friday night...

The next cold front will approach the region Friday evening. It could spark a few scattered showers and thunderstorms, although I don't expect any significant problems for Friday night high school football games. Behind this front, another "cool" and dry air mass will settle over the area for the weekend. I expect temperatures by Sunday to average in the 70s by day and the 50s by night. A few upper 40s are possible in the coolest rural communities!

The longer range and the tropics...

The longer range data is not showing the additional cool-down I was mentioning yesterday. In fact, temperatures should be at or above average later next week (Sept. 20-23), although that may depend on a potential coastal system showing up in the computer projections.

The cluster of showers and thunderstorms that is a little over 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands is showing some good organization tonight and I wouldn't be surprised if it is declared a tropical depression on Wednesday.

A change in the weather on the way...

While we're still dealing with the heat and humidity, change is on the way. A cold front will slide through Virginia on Tuesday and a pleasant air mass with lower humidity will build over the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday and Thursday. Then another front will come through late Friday night and early Saturday. This will bring a taste of fall for the weekend, with afternoon highs in the upper 70s and overnight lows in the 50s Sunday and Monday.

Maybe another surge of cool air later next week...

The trend is definitely toward cooler weather. Our longer range data suggests another cool air mass sliding into the East next Thursday and Friday, with a digging upper trough. However, there are signs that the flow could quickly flatten again by the following weekend (September 22-23).

More action in the tropics?

While we are saying goodbye to Gabrielle, a rather large area of showers and thunderstorms located midway between the Windward Islands and the Cape Verde Islands is being watched closely for development. It is getting better organized and could become a tropical depression within the next couple of days as it moves to the west-northwest. One other area over the western Gulf of Mexico has some potential for development as it moves to the west.

Gabrielle moving northwest toward North Carolina

Gabrielle remains a Subtropical Storm this afternoon and continues on a track toward North Carolina. Tropical storm warnings are now in effect as of Saturday afternoon from Surf City, NC north to the North Carolina/Virginia border.

The hurricane model data continues to show a track around the periphery of a ridge to the northeast of the storm. This would keep the center from moving inland. However, it is likely to skirt the Outer Banks of NC Sunday evening. Any significant impacts are still expected to be confined to coastal communities, particularly in eastern North Carolina.

While the storm remains "subtropical" due to its wide spread of maximum winds (which are at 45 mph), it could become tropical over the next 24 hours with some stregthening a possibility. After Gabrielle flirts with North Carolina, it should recurve out into the Atlantic.

If there are any significant changes to the storm over the weekend, I will post again. Otherwise, enjoy the rest of the weekend!

It's now Gabrielle!

As of late Friday night, the developing Atlantic storm is now Subtropical Storm Gabrielle. The hurricane hunters could not find a well-defined circulation, but satellite images during the evening showed some organization and the National Hurricane Center went ahead and designated it a subtropical storm. It does not have true tropical characteristics at this point, and therefore the designation of "subtropical." The maximum sustained winds are at 45 mph and some strengthening is possible. However, there are a couple of factors working against the storm, one being very dry air to the south and west in the upper levels and some vertical wind shear. Even so, Gabrielle could very well become tropical in nature before making a run at the East Coast. Tropical storm watches are up from Edisto Beach, SC north to Oregon Inlet, NC. The hurricane model suite continues to favor a track to the Outer Banks of North Carolina and then recurvature around a building ridge to the east of the storm. This would keep any significant impact confined to coastal communities.

Still waiting on the Atlantic system...

News from the Atlantic today...the system off the Southeast coast has become more organized. However, the hurricane hunters could not find a well-defined circulation. Upper level winds are becoming more favorable for development. It remains very possible that this system becomes a tropical or subtropical storm at any time. At this point, based on all the forecast guidance, it looks like any significant impact would be limited to the immediate coastal communities. If there is any change later this evening, I will post an update.

Still no change in the Atlantic...

Another day has gone by, with no development from the system we are watching well out in the Atlantic. In fact, it is more disorganized than it was about 24 hours ago. However, upper level winds may become a bit more favorable for development over the next 24-48 hours, so there is still a possibility that it becomes a tropical storm. All of our computer data continues to suggest a movement to the northwest beginning Friday morning.

Assuming this indeed becomes a player, we turn our attention to the potential track. Looking at the very latest hurricane model data, the trend continues to bring the storm relatively close to the Mid-Atlantic coast, but staying offshore. This would keep any significant impact confined to coastal communities. While the track is obviously still in question (since the system has not even developed yet), there is very good consensus amongst the guidance. I'll post another update Friday afternoon, and maybe there will be something new to report...

No changes in the Atlantic system today...

We continue to watch the disturbance that is located well off the Southeast coast and about 375 miles west-southwest of Bermuda as of late afternoon. There is a concentration of showers and thunderstorms to the east of the center, along with near gale force winds reported by the hurricane hunters. However, the system has not taken on any tropical or subtropical characteristics as of yet. Upper level winds are somewhat unfavorable for development right now, but are expected to become more favorable over the next couple of days. So don't be surprised if this is a tropical or subtropical storm by the end of the week. If it is named, it would be Gabrielle.

In terms of impact on Central Virginia and the Mid-Atlantic, it all depends on the storm track. Most of the significant rain would likely be on the east side of the center and right now, the forecast track from most of our computer model data takes it right along the Mid-Atlantic coast from the eastern Carolinas up along the Virginia coast and then northeast. As a front approaches our area from the west, it could draw some of the moisture farther inland, so I do expect some showers and thunderstorms on Sunday, with the potential for some rain as early as Saturday evening, mainly east of Richmond. It looks like the whole weather pattern will be evolving very slowly, and the threat for showers and thunderstorms will linger Monday and Tuesday.

Stay tuned for more updates on this developing weather situation...

The tropics are active...

For the first time in recorded history, a hurricane from the Atlantic and one from the Pacific made landfall on the same day. Hurricane Henriette made landfall on the Baja California coast and Hurricane Felix made landfall in Nicaragua. Felix is the Atlantic storm that struck as a Category 5 storm and then rapidly weakened throughout the day. However, it remains a major rainmaker and could cause catastropic flash flooding and mudslides across parts of Central America. The very heavy rain is expected to impact much of Honduras and Guatemala.

Meanwhile, back home we're keeping a close eye on a disturbance off the Southeast coast. This system is becoming a bit more organized and despite the fact conditions are only marginal for development, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring the situation, as it could become a tropical or subtropical cyclone over the next couple of days. Even though the disturbance has been drifting east today, our computer model data suggests that it will turn back west-northwest and could impact the East Coast of the U.S. over the upcoming weekend. Right now, the favored track takes the storm along the Outer Banks of North Carolina by Sunday and then north along the coast. The exact track will determine what effects we see here in Central Virginia, but beware that this could be a significant rain and even wind maker later in the weekend. Obviously a lot of eyes are on the forecast for Saturday night, with the Chevy Rock & Roll 400 taking place at RIR. At this point, we're hopeful any rain would hold off in the Metro Richmond area until after the race.

Check back for updates on the developing situation off the Atlantic coast. In the mean time, we'll enjoy some very nice late summer weather the next couple of days, with ample sunshine and afternoon highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.