More surges of cold air over the next several days...

Could winter be in the air early next week? Many of you have been asking about my winter outlook. Due to personal reasons, it's been delayed but you'll be able to find it on my web site in the next week or so. Either bookmark the site, or you can e-mail me at mikegoldberg2@gmail.com. More discussions of weather patterns will continue here on this blog.

The upcoming weekend...

More cool air is on tap for the upcoming weekend. I expect plenty of sunshine to start, with clouds increasing by Sunday. The next storm will head north into the Great Lakes, but its trailing cold front will likely produce a bit of rain here Sunday night.

A real cold blast on the way...

Behind this front, the coldest air of the season will settle over the Mid-Atlantic Monday night and Tuesday. Daytime highs will be in the 40s Tuesday and Wednesday, with overnight lows in the 20s.

More precipitation chances?

Our chances for precipitation are getting better, as we see a few systems impacting the area in the longer term. The next front will bring some rain Thursday into Friday (Dec. 6-7), with another potential system arriving later the following weekend (Dec. 9-10). Definitely some things to watch for, so stay tuned...

Quick temperature changes coming...

My apologies for the lack of a post the last couple of weeks. Many of you know the unfortunate news of personal note. I expect to get back to blogging and my winter outlook will be coming soon, so make sure you bookmark this page and come back. OK, now on to the coming weather...

Temperatures will be going up and down the next several days, with the next cold front scheduled to arrive on Thursday. After a brief cool down on Wednesday, we'll jump back into the 60s ahead of the front on Thursday. This front probably won't produce much if any rain (if we're lucky, we'll squeeze out a passing shower or two). Behind the front, temperatures will be a bit below average Friday through Sunday. We'll enjoy plenty of sunshine both Friday and Saturday, but the next system will bring clouds and eventually some rain chances on Sunday.

The coldest air of the season coming...

The next storm will drive well northwest of our area on Monday. Its associated cold front will bring some rain, followed by the coldest air of the season thus far. High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will likely average in the low to mid 40s, so get ready now!

Another storm later next week...

Our longer range computer models are showing the potential for another storm late next week (Dec. 7-8). The storm track would likely favor rain, but it looks like a rather chilly scenario. This certainly shows that we're getting into the cold season. Stay tuned...

The chill sticks around...

The cool weather is here to stay through the upcoming weekend. Afternoon temperatures will be in the 50s, with overnight lows mainly in the 30s. While we may see a couple of showers pop up later Friday and Friday night, the rain chances will remain somewhat low until the middle of next week. I expect a bit of rain on Wednesday with a cold front moving through. However, what earlier looked to be a shot of decent rain may not pan out. Our long range computer data was showing a storm passing over the Mid-Atlantic, but has now shifted the track well north of us. Nonetheless, we'll hope for some rain during the mid-week period. Ahead of the front, temperatures will be on the rise into the 60s, with more chilly air poised to move into the lower 48 from Canada behind the front. More below average temperatures are likely on the way heading into the week leading up to Thanksgiving.

La Nina...

It's time to start talking about La Nina as we get close to the presentation of my 7th Annual Winter Outlook. La Nina is probably the main feature most forecasters are focusing on heading into this upcoming winter. So you ask, what is La Nina? It is defined as cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean that affect pressure and weather patterns around the globe. It is the opposite of the familiar El Nino. Some typical impacts in La Nina seasons include wet and cool weather in the Northwest and milder than average in the Southeast. However, I caution that those are generalizations. Every situation is different and the strength and timing of the La Nina episode can have varying effects. Most climate model data shows a weak to moderate La Nina continuing over the next few months, but potentially weaking in the latter portion of the winter. A milder than average forecast would certainly be in line with the recent outlook issued by NOAA, as pictured here.

The coolest air of the season...

A strong cold front is moving through Virginia (during the early morning hours of Tuesday), bringing with it a few showers, but more importantly, the coolest air of the season behind it. It will take some time for the chilly air to settle in, and afternoon temperatures will still rise into the low 60s in many places. But the next few mornings will be on the cold side, averaging close to 32 degrees for overnight lows in the city, with 20s in rural communities. Daytime highs will be in the 50s, a little bit below average for this time of the year.

The upcoming weekend...

Another system will dive southeast from the Great Lakes on Friday, redeveloping off the coast by Saturday morning. We will probably miss out on most of the precipitation, but a couple of showers may pass over the region later Friday and Friday night. The weekend looks like it will provide ample sunshine, with seasonably cool air over us.

And beyond...

Temperatures will likely moderate early next week, reaching the 60s on Monday and Tuesday. The next front will approach on Tuesday and our longer range computer data now advertises a pretty decent rain (and possibly chilly rain) developing for the mid-week period. Of course, I mentioned last week that the model data had initially hinted at something like this for this coming weekend, so we'll have to see how the situation plays out over the next couple of days. Stay tuned...

La Nina...

In my next post, I'll talk a little bit about La Nina, what it is and how it could impact our weather for the upcoming winter.

The dry November continues...

OK, so we're only a couple of days into November, but the dry spell is certainly back. Rain chances will remain quite low over the next week or so...the exception coming on Tuesday, when we may squeeze out a couple of showers as a strong cold front moves through. We're certainly enjoying a beautiful weekend, with seasonable temperatures that will be on the rise for the beginning of the new work week.

The coolest air of the season on the way...

Speaking of the new week, we'll start out with above average temperatures, but a blast of chilly air is on the way behind this next front. Expect afternoon highs Wednesday through Friday to average in the 50s, with overnight lows in the 30s and even 20s in rural communities! Readings will moderate a bit next weekend (Nov. 10-11) with some upper level ridging over the East.

Looking beyond...

The potential "storm" that several models showed for Nov. 9-10 earlier this week is basically gone from all computer output. Our next rain chances look to come from another front later next weekend (Sunday into Monday, Nov. 11-12). Behind that front, more cool weather is to follow and the trend may very well be for more below average temperatures heading toward Thanksgiving.