Monday, December 31, 2007

Happy New Year!

A quick weather update...2008 will start on a sunny note, with cold air poised to move into the area on Wednesday. We may see some snow showers or flurries as the core of the cold air mass settles in. The coldest day will probably be Thursday, with afternoon highs in the 30s and overnight lows in the teens to near 20. Moderation will occur over the weekend, and temperatures could soar into the 60s early next week, as an upper level ridge rebuilds over the southeastern U.S.

Best wishes to all for a very happy, healthy and successful 2008! See you in the new year...

Friday, December 28, 2007

Mild start, chilly finish this weekend...

A split-look weekend is on the way, with temperatures likely reaching the lower 60s on Saturday, but cooling to the low and mid 40s on Sunday. A cold front will slide through central Virginia, settling to the south and east of the Metro Richmond area later Saturday night. Low pressure will ride northeast along the front Sunday, producing another round of rain from Sunday afternoon through very early Monday morning. Locations to the north, from D.C. to Philadelphia, may see some snow due to somewhat colder air in place. That all depends on the exact storm track.

Finishing 2007 and starting 2008...

The year will end on a somewhat "mild" note on Monday, with temperatures in the 50s under partly sunny skies. However, colder air will gradually build into the Mid-Atlantic by the middle of the week, so it will get progressively colder during the start of 2008. New Year's Eve should be dry, with temperatures at midnight probably in the upper 30s, so plan to dress appropriately if you're heading out.

Flurries mid-week?

As the colder air settles in from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, some upper level energy moving over the region Wednesday may trigger some snow flurries. More substanial snow showers are possible in the mountains to the west. The coldest day will likely be Thursday, when afternoon temperatures may not get out of the 30s. Morning lows will average in the lower 20s in the city, with teens in rural communities.

Looking beyond...

An upper ridge is likely to build back east by the weekend of January 5/6, quickly easing the chill and moderating our temperatures. Our longer range computer models don't show our next weather-maker affecting us until at least Monday the 7th or Tuesday the 8th. By that time, it should be quite mild, so don't expect any snow possibilities. In fact, remember that my Winter Outlook calls for a mild January (with an interlude of cold air mid-month), so this might just a sign of the developing pattern for the following week or two.

Friday, December 21, 2007

A milder weekend, then cooler for Christmas...

The weekend looks like a rather cloudy one, but it will be turning milder...especially on Sunday. A cold front approaching from the west will be the next main weather-maker, producing showers to finish the weekend. Ahead of the front, temperatures could jump above 60. Then cooler air heads into the Mid-Atlantic, arriving in time for Christmas Eve.

The storm for Christmas is off...

The potential storm that was showing up on various models has undergone some changes on the data over the last few runs. It still appears an area of low pressure will develop along the coast late Tuesday into early Wednesday, but move quickly out to sea...with its only impact being felt in extreme eastern North Carolina and possibly the tip of southeastern Virginia. So Metro Richmond and all of central Virginia should enjoy sunshine for the holiday, with temperatures mainly in the 40s.

Unsettled weather later next week, but when exactly?

All indications are there will be some unsettled weather later in the week, but exactly when is still in question. The computer models are having a hard time ejecting energy out of an upper level trough in the Southwest and the timing is key. The GFS (American) model threatens our area with rain on Thursday, with a second wave getting suppressed to our south...followed by a more significant system on Sunday 12/30. The European model holds off most of the deep moisture until Friday, with another wave coming in Saturday afternoon. It certainly appears that moisture may come in several waves and based on the upper level pattern, I wouldn't be surprised to see some arrive late Wednesday into Thursday. That may be followed by a break, with another shot at precipitation over the weekend.

How does the New Year come in?

Again, there is some disagreement amongst the longer range models, with the GFS briefly bringing in some cooler air to finish 2007, then warming us up on the 1st. The European is much milder the last couple of days of the year, and agrees with building the ridge over the Southeast to keep us rather warm to wring in the new year. We shall see...

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Cool and dry...

Tuesday ended up being quite chilly over central Virginia, as the high at Richmond International was only 42 and the low was 20! More cool, dry weather is expected in a rather quiet weather pattern the next couple of days. Temperatures will moderate to just above 50 degrees on Wednesday, with quite a few clouds around. A cold front will slide through the state at night, swinging the wind around to the north on Thursday.

Any rain Friday through the weekend?...

Originally we thought a storm may impact the area for the end of the work week, but the latest model data continues the trend of pushing the storm well south of us, therefore bringing no precipitation. Over the weekend, temperatures will be on the rise, well into the 50s. The next storm will head through the Great Lakes, way to our north and west...but swing a cold front through the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. This will bring our next chances for rain. I don't think it will be the soaking we saw this past weekend, as the storm track is much different and very far to our north and west. However, numerous showers are likely Sunday afternoon and night.

The Christmas outlook and beyond...

It looks like Christmas 2007 will be a cold one...but dry. High pressure should dominate the region for the holiday, with a very cold air mass settling along the East Coast. It won't stick around all that long though. All signs point to a change in the pattern to finish the month, bringing much milder air to Virginia.

Saturday, December 15, 2007

Saturday afternoon update...

The storm is right on target. Low pressure over northern Arkansas will move quickly northeast, with a secondary low developing just inland over NC & VA later tonight. The two will merge into a strong storm over New England on Sunday.

Those wishing for a snowstorm are out of luck. High pressure located over northern NY and southern Ontario, Canada is strong enough, but not in a good position for snow here. An onshore flow will flood the area with milder air tonight, meaning RAIN for Richmond and much of the region. The only places that will see some winter precipitation are the favored spots well north and west of Richmond up into the mountains. Here's more on what to expect:

Metro Richmond and all points south and east: A light rain developing between 4 P.M. and 7 P.M., becoming steadier and heavier overnight
Louisa/Caroline north and west to Fredericksburg and Charlottesville: A mix of sleet and rain, some icy accumulation possible before a changeover to rain
Farther north and west, Harrisonburg, Staunton and the I-81 corridor: A mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain, at the start, then becoming primarily liquid (rain/freezing rain, depending on surface temperatures)...some ice accumulation likely

As the storm departs the area Sunday, the wind will really pick up and skies will begin to clear as substanial drying takes place. Winds in the Richmond area will average between 20 and 25 mph, with gusts over 30 mph at times. Wind gusts along the coast are likely to reach 45-50 mph.

Friday, December 14, 2007

Weekend storm brings good rain to Richmond, winter weather in the mountains and up north...

Here's the Friday evening update: The weekend storm remains on target. High pressure will build to our north tonight and tomorrow. While it is a pretty strong high, it will be a bit too far north to keep cold air funneling into Virginia, which we would need for a decent winter storm. An onshore flow will quickly bring milder air into the mix, and we expect a RAIN event for Richmond and much of Central Virginia. However, the colder air will hold tight a bit longer over higher elevations to the north and west, as well as north of Fredericksburg up to DC...so some winter precipitation is likely. Here's the breakdown:
Metro Richmond and all points south and east: Rain (with some ice pellets possibly mixed in at the start)
Louisa/Caroline north and west to Fredericksburg and Charlottesville: A mix of sleet and rain, some icy accumulation possible before a changeover to rain
Farther north and west, Harrisonburg, Staunton and the I-81 corridor: A mix of snow, sleet and rain, with some accumulation...eventually temps will rise enough that there could be a change to rain

For those travelling north this weekend, be aware that this will be a big storm for the Northeast. The storm track will likely bring mild air pretty far inland, meaning coastal areas will see a lot of rain. But west of the I-95 corridor, there could be some good snows, from PA north to New England.

Thursday, December 13, 2007

Thursday evening update on the weekend storm...

After looking at the latest model suite, I don't have any different thoughts on the weekend storm. Those hoping for winter precipitation will be quite disappointed in Central Virginia. This is a rainmaker for us, not snow. That being said, there may be some sleet mixed in at the very start Saturday afternoon, especially north and west of Richmond. However, warmer air will overtake the region, leading to some significant rain Saturday night. The models still have good consensus on the storm track up until the transfer of energy to near the coast. What happens after that plays a big role in whether the folks up north get significant snow. It still appears possible for a big snow inland from PA up through New England.

Reasons for rain as opposed to winter weather...

There are a few big factors working against us here. I'd like to see a stronger area of high pressure area to our north and its location is just too far north for us...a different story for New England. A few things some forecasters tend to forget when faced with a situation like this...it's still early in the season and climatology just doesn't favor a good snow this far south. That doesn't mean it can't happen, but things would be different under the same circumstances if this was January or February. Also, the water temperatures are still a bit on the high side, so any fetch off the water will fill the atmosphere with milder air. One last thing, the storm track really needs to be to our south, with significant development occurring to the south and east. The current forecast allows much milder air to invade the region. Then once the storm really takes shape along the coast, it's too far north for winter weather here. That's why the folks up north will be watching this situation very closely.

Beyond the storm...

After the storm departs, high winds will usher in very cold air Sunday afternoon despite a return to sunshine. The chilly air will stick around early next week, with some moderation by Wednesday. The next potential storm could affect the area by next weekend. Stay tuned...

Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Weekend storm will bring rain, not snow

** Richmond set another record high Wednesday afternoon, with a high of 77 degrees! **

The new model data today is in very good agreement regarding the weekend storm, at least here in Virginia. There are some questions as to rain vs. snow up north from PA to New England, but here we'll be dealing with rain later Saturday into early Sunday morning.

Storm #1 Thursday...

A smaller storm will affect the area Thursday, moving along a cold front sliding through the Mid-Atlantic. This will bring a bit of rain, and be followed by a pleasant day on Friday (with temperatures a bit above average). Then the fun begins...

Weekend storm update...

I still feel strongly about the weekend storm. The track is NOT favorable for any winter precip. in our area. There may be some snow mixed in up in the mountains, but that's probably it. Warmer air should surge into the region on an east-southeast flow, especially a few thousand feet above the surface. That will guarantee wet weather for us. The various models are coming into good agreement with the storm track:

EUROPEAN: Northern Louisiana Saturday morning through the Ohio Valley, then splitting energy and giving way to a new low over Central and Eastern Virginia Sunday morning, which then moves up to Northern Maine early Monday morning.

GFS (Global Forecast System--American): Northern Mississippi early Saturday morning transferring energy to the coast Saturday night, with the new low over Long Island Sunday morning.

UK: Northern Mississippi early Saturday morning...then splitting energy over the mountains late Saturday night, with a new low off the Virginia coast Sunday morning.

That's a taste of what the model data has shown today. The big questions are up in New England, as right now there will likely be enough warm air along the coast to bring mostly liquid precipitation, but it is too early to tell how far inland the warmer air will get, meaning there is the potential for decent snows from this storm up north.

The longer term...

Very cold air will move in behind the storm and stay with us early next week. Any system mid-week would be very weak and the model data is not impressive at all. So next week looks pretty quiet.

White Christmas?...

Of course I've already been asked about a white Christmas. The odds here are so low to begin with and the long range data doesn't offer any hope. Right now, upon first glimpse...we may be relatively mild the last week in December. Right now, the GFS has a storm affecting the East Coast on Christmas...but it's a rainmaker...and it's too far in the future to be relied on anyway. Stay tuned...

Tuesday, December 11, 2007

Weekend storm coming!

Our weather will be changing rather quickly over the next couple of days, with a big storm projected to affect the region over the weekend. We'll start with possible record warmth again tomorrow, as temperatures soar into the mid 70s (the record high at RIC Airport is 76 degrees, set in 1931). A cold front will then slide through the area by evening. This will cool us off quite a bit on Thursday, and an area of low pressure moving along the front will bring some rain.

The storm comes in Saturday...

Friday looks like a pleasant mid-December day, but then the clouds will increase and thicken on Saturday as a significant storm moves into the Mid-Atlantic. High pressure will slide off the New England coast allowing an east-southeast flow to scour out any substanial cold air. The most likely track of the storm is from the lower Mississippi Valley Saturday morning to the Commonwealth by Sunday morning. The current forecast track is also not favorable for winter precipitation in the Metro Richmond area, so snow lovers should not get excited. In fact, the storm could draw much warmer air aloft well west of the metro, although I think the mountains will probably get some snow. Of course, we're still a couple of days away, so stay tuned for any updates. It's possible the storm track could shift farther north and west, as that certainly has been the trend on the GFS (American) model the last couple of days.

Looking ahead to next week...

A surge of very chilly air will head into town early next week. Some questions arise in the middle of the week, as the European model has a small storm tracking through the region with enough cold air building in from the north to possibly bring some winter precipitation. The GFS, however, is much different. It's still way too early to speculate, and there's just not enough evidence to be concerned at this point. More to come in the next few days...

Wednesday, December 5, 2007

The first snow of the season...

The first snow of the season materialized across Central and Northern Virginia earlier today. The Metro Richmond area saw a dusting in places, with no accumulation to the south and more to the north. Some tallies included 1 inch in Harrisonburg and Lovingston (Nelson Co.), a little over 2 inches in Madison and Page Counties, to up to 4 inches in Fairfax and Arlington Counties up near D.C. Any flurries will quickly taper off, but the chill will remain the next couple of days. Temperatures will be well below average Thursday, near 40 degrees...then rise to near 50 on Friday.

The warm-up begins this weekend...

As warmer air surges north toward us, we'll be dealing with more clouds Friday and Saturday, and possibly a few showers (mainly to the west of the Metro Richmond area). Temperatures will be on the rise, and we should see readings surpass 60 degrees on Sunday.

Very warm at least half of next week...

We could flirt with record highs Monday and Tuesday, with readings at least close to 70 degrees. A cold front will lurk to the northwest and the amount of cloud cover will determine how high we get on the thermometer. This front probably won't sink through Central Virginia until at least Wednesday. It should bring some showers, followed by cooler air next Thursday and Friday (daytime temps in the low 50s).

For the record...

Record highs at RIC early next week include:
Monday 12/10 75 degrees, set in 1966
Tuesday 12/11 72 degrees, set in 1971
Wednesday 12/12 76 degrees, set in 1931

My 7th Annual Winter Outlook IS coming...

This looks to be a winter dominated by La Nina, which could provide some very mild weather in January...but don't count out snow chances. My winter outlook will be posted on my main web page, http://www.mike-goldberg.com/, later Friday. I also provide regular forecast updates on the page, so check it out.

Tuesday, December 4, 2007

A few flakes on the way for some...

This evening's update doesn't really have any new information. The forecast is pretty much on track. The air over us is very dry and it will take some time to moisten up as a fast moving Alberta Clipper approaches the area. I expect the clouds to roll in and thicken up overnight. Some snow flurries or showers are possible to the northwest of Richmond by morning. As the system tracks across the Commonwealth, I expect a mix of rain and snow showers, as our low level temperatures will warm up during the daylight hours. So while we may see the first flakes of the season, it won't be a big deal. As I've been saying all along, systems like these don't usually produce much precipitation anyway. Temperatures will be on the chilly side through Thursday, making it "feel" like winter.

The weekend...

An upper level ridge will build over the area this weekend, so our temperatures will be on the way up. The warming trend will begin on Friday, with readings in the 50s. By Sunday, we should be into the 60s and I wouldn't rule out a run at 70 degrees early next week.

Next week...

A cold front will lurk to the northwest on Monday and then begin moving through the area on Tuesday. This will bring some showers, followed by cooler weather for the middle of the week. Another front will likely move through the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday, as a rather fast zonal flow sets up. This will keep the coldest air to our north, with relatively mild conditions for December through at least the weekend of the 15th and 16th, if not beyond.

My forecast can be found at www.mike-goldberg.com.

Monday, December 3, 2007

Cool weather the next few days and will there be snow?

It looks like temperatures the next couple of days will be near or below seasonal averages. The breeze will stay up on Tuesday, with temperatures nearing 50 degrees during the afternoon. All attention is on the Alberta Clipper that will zip across the region on Wednesday. Moisture in advance of this system will run into dry air east of the Blue Ridge, but may still be able to produce snow showers Wednesday morning, especially along and north of I-64. Systems like this often don't produce a lot of precipitation, and this one won't be an exception. In fact, little if any precipitation is likely south of the Metro Richmond area. While we may see some of the first snowflakes of the season early on, the lower levels of the atmosphere will be warming during the daylight hours and any flakes may turn to raindrops. So snow lovers shouldn't get too excited.

The end of the week into the weekend...

Temperatures behind this system will stay in the chilly 40s on Friday, but we'll be warming up by the weekend as an upper ridge builds over the Southeast. This will probably help to boost temperatures into the 60s Sunday and Monday.

Looking ahead to next week...

The building upper ridge will lead to several days of very mild weather. An approaching front from the west will slow down, but eventually reach the Commonwealth Tuesday or Wednesday. This front will hopefully bring some rain to the area, followed by a little cooler air. However, our longer range model data shows the upper flow rather zonal (west to east), meaning temperatures will likely stay at or above average through at least the following weekend (Dec.15-16).

My forecast can be found at www.mike-goldberg.com

Update on the possibility of snow this week...

A quick update from the late night model runs...and there's not much change. An Alberta Clipper will likely zip across the area on Wednesday. It probably won't produce much precipitation, but we could see some of the first snow of the season. It appears precipitation could start in the morning and be in the form of light snow. We'd like see it mix with rain at least south and east of Richmond. Again, this doesn't look like a significant precipitation producer, but certainly an interesting system to watch so early in the season.

The complete forecast is on my main web site and my winter outlook is coming there later this week, so bookmark it now!

Saturday, December 1, 2007

Snow coming this week?

Sunday afternoon update (12/2)...no significant changes in computer data at this time. There is some divergence amongst the model suite, but that is to be expected with a system like this early in the season. I still believe there's the potential for a bit of snow to fall over parts of Central Virginia on Wednesday. Of course the ground is relatively warm, so don't expect much to stick. Stay tuned...the forecast is on my main site...

A quick update...Saturday afternoon model runs continue to advertise an Alberta Clipper impacting the area Wednesday afternoon and night. Critical values remain crucial to any possibility of snow vs. rain. Significant precipitation with this type of system at this time of the year is somewhat unusual, but it appears we have a shot at seeing some snow, at least across parts of Central Virginia. Get the complete forecast and my soon to be issued winter outlook on my main web site at mike-goldberg.com and stay tuned for further updates...

Winter Outlook

It's coming...

My 7th Annual Winter Outlook is coming this week. It will be posted on my main web site: mike-goldberg.com, so bookmark it and check back. It's the only place you'll be able to find it.

A chilly weekend...

Temperatures this weekend will come in a bit below average for this time of the year. We'll have a decent amount of sunshine today (Saturday), but the clouds will dominate on Sunday. A storm tracking north through the Great Lakes will throw a cold front into the Mid-Atlantic late Sunday night and early Monday morning. This will bring us a little bit of rain.

A cold blast arrives...

What will likely be the coldest air of the season will rush into the region Monday night and Tuesday. Look for high temperatures mid-week to be in the 40s, and overnight lows in the 20s. An intriguing feature on our computer data is a fast-moving Alberta Clipper that could impact the area Wednesday and Wednesday night. If we get some precipitation from this system, it might be cold enough at critical levels for the first snowflakes of the season. It's a little early to speculate, so we'll have to see how future model runs handle the situation. Stay tuned...