We got a real taste of warm weather today, with temperatures up around 80 degrees. However, a big change is on the way overnight. A cold front will slide in from the north, bringing a few scattered showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder. While we could catch a passing thunderstorm, there is no real threat for severe weather. The air is relatively dry as well and I don't expect a lot of rain. Behind the front, it will be much cooler this weekend, with afternoon temperatures in the 50s and early morning readings in the 30s on Sunday.
Onshore flow to produce more clouds on Sunday...
The flow will turn onshore around strong high pressure building off the New England coast on Sunday. This will bring in more moisture in the form of clouds and maybe even some light rain in spots by Sunday evening. It certainly will be rather cloudy to finish the weekend and even to start on Monday. I can't rule out a shower or two on Monday, but the wind will be turning to the south and that means we'll start to warm up again.
Next front arrives Tuesday...
The next cold front is on schedule to move through Tuesday evening. Ahead of this front, look for temperatures to soar back into the 70s. A few showers are likely with the frontal passage later Tuesday and Tuesday night (maybe some thunder as well), with another shot of "cooler" air to arrive on Wednesday.
The longer term...
These fast moving systems and overall weather changes will continue into the second week of April. The next system will probably impact the area on Friday 4/4 with a more substanial storm moving through the Ohio Valley and northern Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday 4/8. Each system will bring some warm weather ahead of it, followed by shots of cooler air on the backside.
Friday, March 28, 2008
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Much warmer the next few days, then cooler for the weekend...
The gusty breezes we've grown accustomed to lately will continue the next several days. They'll be out of the southwest through Friday, and that will help to boost temperatures well into the 70s each afternoon. A few locations may flirt with 80 on Friday. When it gets this warm this early, many folks ask "could that be a record?" No way now, as record highs the last four days of March are 90+!
Cold front arrives by Friday night...
A cold front will slide through the region Friday evening or night and usher in a big change in temperature for the upcoming weekend. More clouds will accompany the front, and we may see a couple of showers pop up by Friday evening. All indications are the front will settle south of us on Saturday, but a lot of low-level moisture will be present, meaning we'll probably have a lot of clouds to deal with and possibly a few light showers early Saturday morning. The air will gradually dry out over the weekend, and Sunday should offer quite a bit of sunshine. However, temperatures will be noticeably cooler, averaging in the mid 50s each afternoon and down near the freezing mark Sunday morning.
Early next week...
Temperatures will moderate to near seasonal values early next week (low to mid 60s), but then another cold front will arrive later Tuesday. This will usher in another brief shot of cooler weather Wednesday/Thursday.
Cold front arrives by Friday night...
A cold front will slide through the region Friday evening or night and usher in a big change in temperature for the upcoming weekend. More clouds will accompany the front, and we may see a couple of showers pop up by Friday evening. All indications are the front will settle south of us on Saturday, but a lot of low-level moisture will be present, meaning we'll probably have a lot of clouds to deal with and possibly a few light showers early Saturday morning. The air will gradually dry out over the weekend, and Sunday should offer quite a bit of sunshine. However, temperatures will be noticeably cooler, averaging in the mid 50s each afternoon and down near the freezing mark Sunday morning.
Early next week...
Temperatures will moderate to near seasonal values early next week (low to mid 60s), but then another cold front will arrive later Tuesday. This will usher in another brief shot of cooler weather Wednesday/Thursday.
Thursday, March 20, 2008
A very nice end to the week...
First I want to thank all of my faithful readers and "viewers" for your continued support. I enjoy keeping you all up to date on our ever-changing weather and look forward to providing more of the most accurate weather information on mike-goldberg.com and beyond.
Now on to business, as I'm back after a few days up north (and boy, it was nasty cold up there!). We have a beautiful day to finish the work week, with lots of sunshine and temperatures averaging in the low 60s. Then a change is on the way for the weekend. I think it will still be quite mild on Saturday, as a weak system zips by to our north. This will bring a trailing front through the region during the afternoon, making for a sharp contrast in temperatures. Readings across Southside VA could very well make it to 70, with temperatures to the north coming down in the afternoon. In Richmond, I expect temps to be in the 60s, but just how high will depend on cloud cover and the timing of the front (and accompanying wind shift). There may be a few showers as well, as the main system zips by to the north. Behind this system, cooler weather will finish out the weekend.
The next thing I've been watching is a potential coastal system for late Sunday and Monday. The trend here is clear...offshore. The computer data has been shifting this system off the coast and if the trend continues, we may not see any precipitation. However, if it stays close enough to the coastline, we may have enough moisture to trigger some rain (and even snow, if the precipitation can push far enough west into the higher elevations). It's an intriguing situation, but honestly at this point, I wouldn't get excited. There has to be more of a westward shift to make this something to really be concerned about. Stay tuned for updates...
All signs point to a warm-up by mid-week (back into the 60s) and then a developing eastern ridge by the end of the month that could bring some very warm weather to finish the month.
Now on to business, as I'm back after a few days up north (and boy, it was nasty cold up there!). We have a beautiful day to finish the work week, with lots of sunshine and temperatures averaging in the low 60s. Then a change is on the way for the weekend. I think it will still be quite mild on Saturday, as a weak system zips by to our north. This will bring a trailing front through the region during the afternoon, making for a sharp contrast in temperatures. Readings across Southside VA could very well make it to 70, with temperatures to the north coming down in the afternoon. In Richmond, I expect temps to be in the 60s, but just how high will depend on cloud cover and the timing of the front (and accompanying wind shift). There may be a few showers as well, as the main system zips by to the north. Behind this system, cooler weather will finish out the weekend.
The next thing I've been watching is a potential coastal system for late Sunday and Monday. The trend here is clear...offshore. The computer data has been shifting this system off the coast and if the trend continues, we may not see any precipitation. However, if it stays close enough to the coastline, we may have enough moisture to trigger some rain (and even snow, if the precipitation can push far enough west into the higher elevations). It's an intriguing situation, but honestly at this point, I wouldn't get excited. There has to be more of a westward shift to make this something to really be concerned about. Stay tuned for updates...
All signs point to a warm-up by mid-week (back into the 60s) and then a developing eastern ridge by the end of the month that could bring some very warm weather to finish the month.
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
New updates next week...
I'll be off the next few days. There won't be much happening weather-wise, although a pretty good storm should move over through the region on Saturday bringing some rain and a bit of cooler air behind it (after warming up nicely on Friday). There aren't any signs of winter weather though. I'll post an update on what to expect for the rest of the month early next week...
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
With storm threat diminishing, attention turns to Friday/Saturday storm...
In the wake of some very gusty storms, our weather will be quieting down for the next two days, but all attention will turn to Friday and Saturday. A new storm developing over the Gulf states will track up the coast. Right now, I see rain developing here Friday afternoon and continuing into Saturday. With the low tracking over Virginia, warm air will get drawn in aloft, but our surface winds may keep temperatures in the 40s on Saturday. It looks quite chilly for the weekend, and colder air rushing in on Saturday could bring about a change to snow before the precipitation tapers off (mainly north and west of Richmond). It will be interesting to watch, as this looks like it could be a strong system. Look for more to come...
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Storms coming through...11:25 UPDATE
The squall line is rapidly moving into Metro Richmond and the I-95 corridor. Expect very heavy rain and wind gusts potentially in excess of 50 mph through about 12:30 A.M. An isolated tornado is still possible as this line moves east and a Tornado Watch remains in effect until 3 A.M. The line should roll through the Middle Peninsula and Northern Neck between 1 A.M. and 3 A.M.
Late evening update...Tornado Watch continues until 3 A.M.
So far, a few strong storms have rolled through the area, but no significant severe weather reports. The second line (that still is a pretty decent squall line) is moving through counties west and south of Richmond. This line will likely cross the I-95 corridor between 11 P.M. and 3 A.M. Low level moisture is abundant, along with good shear profiles, so the threat for severe weather will continue and an isolated tornado or two could spawn up. The main threat will continue to be damaging winds, potentially in excess of 60 mph. After about 2 A.M., the threat should diminish in the metro area, but could linger along the coast until about 4 A.M.
Tornado Watch in effect until 3 A.M. for all of Central Virginia...
A Tornado Watch is in effect for our entire area until 3 A.M. Storms moving into the area from the west may pack quite a punch during the late evening. The main issue will come from potentially strong, damaging winds. The Storm Prediction Center has posted the watch because there is the possibility of isolated tornadoes due to strong shear in the atmosphere.
What's going on...
A strong storm is moving northeast through the Ohio Valley (to our northwest). Its trailing cold front is running into a rather warm air mass over VA and the Carolinas. One batch of showers and thunderstorms is moving across VA now, with a second line to follow from the west later this evening. Gusty winds have prevailed at times throughout the day and stronger winds aloft could be brought to the surface by any of the developing thunderstorms.
The meteorological factors:
This is different from the traditional lines of thunderstorms that become severe and produce strong winds and hail in the spring and summer. In this situation, there is limited instability in the atmosphere and the timing of the front is not good (late night/early morning). HOWEVER, there is a strengthening low-level jet (very strong winds just above the surface) and deep shear in the environment. This means there is the threat for damaging wind gusts and possibly the development of a few isolated tornadoes due to the strong twisting of the winds aloft.
The timing:
A few storms could be strong between 8 P.M. and 10 P.M., mainly along and west of I-95. After 10 P.M., this batch will move toward the Middle Peninsula and Northern Neck. The second line (which right now looks like a good squall line as of 7:30) may very well be the one to watch, although we'll have to see how it holds together. The main questions being will it survive the trip east and will the first round of rain stabilize the environment even more. I still believe the shearing environment could contribute to some late-night wind issues. Stay tuned...
What's going on...
A strong storm is moving northeast through the Ohio Valley (to our northwest). Its trailing cold front is running into a rather warm air mass over VA and the Carolinas. One batch of showers and thunderstorms is moving across VA now, with a second line to follow from the west later this evening. Gusty winds have prevailed at times throughout the day and stronger winds aloft could be brought to the surface by any of the developing thunderstorms.
The meteorological factors:
This is different from the traditional lines of thunderstorms that become severe and produce strong winds and hail in the spring and summer. In this situation, there is limited instability in the atmosphere and the timing of the front is not good (late night/early morning). HOWEVER, there is a strengthening low-level jet (very strong winds just above the surface) and deep shear in the environment. This means there is the threat for damaging wind gusts and possibly the development of a few isolated tornadoes due to the strong twisting of the winds aloft.
The timing:
A few storms could be strong between 8 P.M. and 10 P.M., mainly along and west of I-95. After 10 P.M., this batch will move toward the Middle Peninsula and Northern Neck. The second line (which right now looks like a good squall line as of 7:30) may very well be the one to watch, although we'll have to see how it holds together. The main questions being will it survive the trip east and will the first round of rain stabilize the environment even more. I still believe the shearing environment could contribute to some late-night wind issues. Stay tuned...
Monday, March 3, 2008
More wind in the forecast...
The wind will be an issue again over the next couple of days, with a cold front approaching from the west Tuesday evening. Ahead of the front, temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s...but cooler air is on the way later in the week.
Rain from the front and is there a severe weather threat?
We'll get some decent showers from the frontal passage. Current data shows we'll likely see an average of 1/2 inch of rain Tuesday night. As for the potential of severe weather, there is some good shear but a lack of overall instability. That combined with the timing of the frontal passage makes the severe threat rather minimal. However, there will be some strong winds and a few thunderstorms may develop that cause some wind damage later Tuesday night, so we'll keep an eye on it.
Later in the week...
Quiet weather is on tap for Thursday, with a second front approaching on Friday. This front may kick off a few showers, but more importantly will bring a surge of chilly weather for the weekend. There is some moisture showing up on longer range charts for Saturday and with the colder, somewhat unstable air moving overhead with an upper trough swinging through, we may see some snowflakes in the air, particularly over the higher elevations north and west of Richmond.
Looking down the road...
After next weekend, the chill may linger into the early part of the following week (Mar. 10-11), with moderation by mid-week and a rain threat later in the week (Mar. 13-14). Beyond this, the pattern looks like it will be active and we'll have occasional surges of cold air. I have a feeling we're going to see a little snow this month in the Richmond area. La Nina years typically produce cooler than average springs, so don't be surprised by spurts of chill this month and next.
Rain from the front and is there a severe weather threat?
We'll get some decent showers from the frontal passage. Current data shows we'll likely see an average of 1/2 inch of rain Tuesday night. As for the potential of severe weather, there is some good shear but a lack of overall instability. That combined with the timing of the frontal passage makes the severe threat rather minimal. However, there will be some strong winds and a few thunderstorms may develop that cause some wind damage later Tuesday night, so we'll keep an eye on it.
Later in the week...
Quiet weather is on tap for Thursday, with a second front approaching on Friday. This front may kick off a few showers, but more importantly will bring a surge of chilly weather for the weekend. There is some moisture showing up on longer range charts for Saturday and with the colder, somewhat unstable air moving overhead with an upper trough swinging through, we may see some snowflakes in the air, particularly over the higher elevations north and west of Richmond.
Looking down the road...
After next weekend, the chill may linger into the early part of the following week (Mar. 10-11), with moderation by mid-week and a rain threat later in the week (Mar. 13-14). Beyond this, the pattern looks like it will be active and we'll have occasional surges of cold air. I have a feeling we're going to see a little snow this month in the Richmond area. La Nina years typically produce cooler than average springs, so don't be surprised by spurts of chill this month and next.
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