Stay Tuned to Tropical Weather...

FYI, I'll be "off" the next couple of days and may not have a chance to produce new blog entries. So to stay up with Gustav and Hanna, check out the following links from the National Hurricane Center...

INFORMATION ON GUSTAV

INFORMATION ON HANNA

As of late Friday night, Gustav still looks to be on an eventual track to western Louisiana or possibly the Texas coast. There is a good possibility it becomes a major hurricane (at least Category 3). Hanna's future track is a bit more uncertain, and it too could strengthen to hurricane status. Yet another tropical wave south of the Cape Verde Islands could develop and eventually become Tropical Storm Ike. This is the time the tropics are usually getting busy and this year is no exception.

I'll send an update when I can during the week. In the mean time, enjoy your holiday weekend!

The Latest Tropical Weather--Gustav and Hanna

GUSTAV

Gustav is expected to become a hurricane as it tracks from southern Jamaica through the northwest Carribbean. The forecast track takes the storm near the western tip of Cuba Saturday evening and then into the Gulf of Mexico. The latest computer model suite continues to focus attention on a potential landfall along the Louisiana coast early next week. It's important to realize that a U.S. landfall is still many days away and computer projections could easily change. However, it would appear the the Louisiana and Texas coasts have the best shot at seeing a landfall. In terms of intensity, most of the models bring the storm to at least category 2 hurricane status, with several making Gustav a dangerous category 3 before landfall. With the very warm waters of the Gulf, significant intensification is a possibly and the storm will be monitored very closely by those along the Gulf Coast through the holiday weekend.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST TRACK FOR GUSTAV

HANNA

Meanwhile, Hanna is out in the Atlantic, about 260 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands as of very late Thursday night. The storm is expected to intensify and possibly be a hurricane by Saturday. Hanna is expected to remain over the open waters for several days, moving generally west-northwest, but a southward component could enter the picture later in the weekend. This would be due to strong northerly winds in the mid and upper levels behind a trough swinging off the East Coast, indicated by virtually all of our computer models.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST TRACK FOR HANNA

What's Left of Fay Could Bring Us Rain... and Gustav Enters the Picture!

The remnants of Tropical Storm Fay will be inching northeast toward the Mid-Atlantic over the next 24-48 hours. There is some disagreement in how much rain we may get, as the popular GFS/ECMWF models show a good slug of rain entering the region by Wednesday, with the threat of precipitation continuing through Friday. Meanwhile the NAM model shows the axis of significant moisture remaining west, with a drier scenario. At this point, with an increasing onshore flow, I have to believe our rain chances will increase on Wednesday and we may receive some decent rainfall on Thursday, lingering into Friday what's left of the system crosses the region. Stay tuned for more...

The newest storm on the horizon is Tropical Storm Gustav. Gustav is located south-southeast of Haiti and moving northwest at about 14 mph as of late afternoon/early evening. The forward speed is expected to decrease over the next couple of days, with the center likely moving over Haiti tomorrow. With strenghtening expected, Gustav could become a hurricane prior to moving over land. In the longer term, it is forecast to move over Cuba and potentially end up in the Gulf of Mexico. Below, you can see the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center, along with the computer model projections from their afternoon runs.

Fay Update--Early Saturday Morning

Tropical Storm Fay is now back over water, about 50 miles south of Tallahassee, FL as of 11 P.M. Friday night. The storm is moving west at about 8 mph and regaining strength. With this motion expected to continue, Fay will be near or over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast during the weekend. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Suwanee River, FL westward to the Mississippi/Alabama border. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from west of the Mississippi/Alabama border to the mouth of the Mississippi River. The watch does not include Lake Pontchartrain or the city of New Orleans.

As seen in the computer model tracks, Fay should stay across the Deep South the next couple of days. The storm is expected to produce total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches across the northern Florida Peninsula, the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, southern Alabama and southern Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. Additional rainfall of 1-2 inches is possible over central and southern Florida in the outer rain bands associated with Fay. Isolated storm total rainfall amounts of 20-30 inches have been observed across portions of the east-central coast of Florida.

Eventually, moisture from Fay is expected to make its way northeast into the Mid-Atlantic. Most likely, clouds will be on the increase by Tuesday afternoon and the earliest we would see any rain is probably Tuesday night. Rain chances will then increase Wednesday into Thursday.

Fay Update...Late Thursday Night

You've probably heard about the tremendous amount of rain and flooding over central Florida the last couple of days. Here are some of totals as of late Thursday afternoon:

Melbourne NWS Office: 18.21"
Cape Canaveral: 20.03" (through 5 AM Thursday)
Palm Shores: 19.67"
Hobe Sound: 13.84"
Jensen Beach: 12.95"
Port St. Lucie: 11.52"
Palm Shores: 11.17"
Stuart: 11.05"

Malabar: 10.48"
Fort Pierce: 8.98"
Palm Bay: 7.31"
Cocoa: 5.72"

As of late night, Fay is drifting west across the Florida Peninsula and dumping heavy rains over northeast Florida. It is about 25 miles west-northwest of Daytona Beach, FL (11 P.M. NHC advisory). The westward movement is expected to continue with a gradual shift to the west-northwest during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds near 60 mph are expected to come down a bit as gradual weakening occurs over land. Additional flooding and isolated tornadoes are possible over northeast Florida, southeastern Georgia and even southern South Carolina through Friday.

The forecast track from the hurricane models continuesto show the storm remaining over the Deep South through early next week, with continued weakening. Eventually some of the moisture may make its way up into the Mid-Atlantic by later Tuesday and Wednesday. We shall see...

Fay Update--Early Wednesday Morning

Fay continues to drift north-northeast across the Florida Peninsula and should be off the East Coast later today. It is likely to stay near the northeast coast of Florida through Thursday. The storm has weakened a bit, with maximum sustained winds near 50 mph, but restrengthening probably will occur when it moves back over the Atlantic. Heavy rain and isolated tornadoes are the main threat right now along the East Coast of Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from north of Jupiter Inlet to Flager Beach, and for Lake Okeechobee. A Hurricane Watch is in effect from north of Flagler Beach to Altamaha Sound, GA and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from north of Altamaha Sound to the Savannah River.

In terms of the latest computer data, the hurricane models continue to show the storm getting blocked by a big ridge of high pressure developing along the East Coast. This will likely steer the storm back inland over northern Florida and then west-northwestward by the weekend. There is some disagreement as to the exact track and whether it will stay inland, moving over southern Georgia and Alabama...or whether it could potentially move over the waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico. Either way, we here in central Virginia will not be impacted by the storm until at least early next week. The longer range computer data does show the possibility of significant moisture from the system moving north along the coast by either Tuesday or Wednesday, so stay tuned!

Fay Update--Tuesday Midday

Fay is now over Florida and will move slowly north-northeast across the peninsula through tonight. It should then move back over water near the east coast of northern Florida tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph, but some weakening is likely tonight as the storm remains over land. Then some restrengthening is expected tomorrow as it moves back over water. General rainfall totals over southern and east-central Florida are expected to be between 5 and 10 inches, with some isolated amounts possibly near 15 inches. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the east coast of Florida from north of Ocean Reef to Flager Beach, including Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from north of Flagler Beach to Fernandina Beach.

In terms of Fay's future track, you can clearly see looking at the model suite above that the latest consensus forecast takes the storm back inland over northern FL and southern GA, as a ridge of high pressure to the north blocks its movement up the coast. This means the storm should stay away from central Virginia through the week and the upcoming weekend. However, a persistent onshore flow between Fay and the strong area of high pressure could produce a few widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorm Friday through Sunday. Early next week, if the storm holds together, it could bring moisture to the Mid-Atlantic as the ridge gradually gives way.

Fay Update--Very Early Tuesday Morning

Fay is expected to cross the coast of southwest Florida this morning and continue inland over central Florida during the next 12-24 hours. The storm could approach hurricane strength near landfall, but will then weaken as it moves inland. General rainfall amounts over central and southern Florida are expected to range between 4 and 8 inches, with maximum storm totals near 10 inches. Isolated tornadoes are possible throughout the day over central Florida.

As for the storm's future path, the hurricane models show that the steering currents will break down, as a large ridge building over the eastern U.S. will block the storm's northward movement. There is a lot of uncertainty in the model tracks, but for central Virginia, any immediate threat through Friday is clearly lower than earlier runs. Assuming the storm stays down south and over land, it will gradually weaken. However, a persistent southeast flow over the region could lead to widely scattered thunderstorms developing during the afternoon and early evening Friday through Sunday. Also, longer range computer data shows the system could still have an impact on the region early next week, bringing moisture northward. That's still too early to pinpoint, but stay tuned...

Here are nighttime hurricane model plots...

Fay Update--Midday Monday

As of midday, Tropical Storm Fay is located about 65 miles east-northeast of Havana, Cuba and 70 miles south-southeast of Key West, FL. It is now moving north-northwest at 13 mph, a bit slower than yesterday. This reduction in forward speed is expected to continue through tonight. Fay will be approaching the southwest Florida coast tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds are at 60 mph, with some strengthening likely tonight and Fay will probably be a hurricane before it makes landfall. Therefore, a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the southwest Florida coast from Flamingo to Anna Maria Island. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the east coast of Florida from Cocoa Beach south, including Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Key West. Meanwhile, a Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Florida Mainland east of Flamingo to Card Sound Bridge, and along the Florida West Coast north of Anna Maria to Tarpon Springs.

Across South Florida, general rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with maximum amounts of 10 inches near the Florida Keys. Isolated tornadoes are possible over the Keys and extreme South Florida through the night.

As you can see below, the forecast model suite is coming into some consensus, showing a track through central Florida and up into eastern Georgia by Thursday. After that, there is some disagreement, although the general consensus brings Fay north into eastern Tennessee and Kentucky. This means the core of heavy rain may very well avoid central Virginia. However, a persistent southeast flow developing between the storm and high pressure just to our north will likely increase moisture levels and possibly produce at least some scattered thunderstorms later in the week. Stay tuned...

Tropical Storm Fay--Sunday Afternoon Update

Fay is now located just south of the central Cuba coast. As expected, it has strengthened a bit over the last 24 hours, with maximum sustained winds now at 50 mph. Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane Watches remain in effect for much of Cuba. As for the U.S., a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Florida Keys from south of Ocean Reef to Key West...and along the Florida Mainland from Card Sound Bridge westward to Anna Maria Island. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas and a Tropical Storm Watch is posted along the southeast Florida coast from Ocean Reef northward to Jupiter Inlet...as well as Lake Okeechobee.

Some continued strengthening is expected tonight, and Fay could be near hurricane strength as it approaches western Cuba very late tonight or early tomorrow morning. The storm is currently moving west-northwest at 17 mph (as of Sunday afternoon), but a gradual turn to the north with a slower forward speed is expected by midday Monday. Following the National Hurricane Center forecast track above, Fay will likely be near the Florida Keys Monday night.
As for the long term, the computer data suite (the early morning run shown below) still has a lot of disagreement, but there is some consensus that Fay could end up tracking into the Southeast U.S. during the middle of the work week. With a significant area of high pressure just to our north, it looks like at the very least a rather persistent southeast wind flow will set up across Virginia and the Carolinas. This will lead to an increasing rain threat, and depending on the track of Fay, some significant rain is a possibility, so stay tuned...

Tropical Storm Fay...

Tropical Storm Fay is the latest system in the Atlantic, now sitting just south of eastern Cuba as of late afternoon. Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane Watches are in effect across much of Cuba, with a Tropical Storm Watch posted for the Central Bahamas, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph and while the system has weakened slightly, it is expected to gain strength during the next couple of days. Fay is currently moving west, and will be very close to the coast of southern Cuba over the next 24-36 hours, likely moving inland over western Cuba either late Sunday night or Monday as it turns to the north-northwest or even north. This direction change is due to a forecast weakness in a ridge sitting over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The model data is not in agreement on exactly where this turn will take place and how dramatic it will be. Several models are now forecasting a landfall over south/southeastern Florida, while others favor a track along the western Florida coast. It is still too early to tell whether Fay will have an impact on our weather here in Virginia, but it is possible that it could produce some rain here late in the week. We'll just have to continue to monitor its progress and future computer model runs. For now, here's the latest track from the National Hurricane Center...

The Perseids Are Here!

The Perseid meteors can be seen each night (when the sky conditions are appropriate) over the next few weeks. The Perseids will peak the early morning of August 12th, which will offer the best viewing, assuming the sky is clear. If you can't catch them early Tuesday morning, the few days before and after should also provide a good opportunity. The time to watch is after midnight, during the predawn hours when the moon goes down. Enjoy!

Edouard Poised to Make Landfall...

Tropical Storm Edouard is set to make landfall Tuesday, most likely on the Upper Texas coast. It should move west-northwest on the south side of an low-mid level ridge over the Southern Plains. Any deviation to the north of the forecast track could bring the center over southwest Louisiana. Additional strengthening could occur before landfall, meaning the storm will be near hurricane strength. A Hurricane Watch is in effect from west of Intracoastal City, LA to Port O'Connor, TX. The storm is expected to produce rainfall of 3-5 inches over southwest Louisiana, and 4-6 inches over southeastern Texas (with locally higher amounts up to 10 inches). Isolated tornadoes are possible over southern Louisiana and the Upper Texas coast.