Saturday, November 29, 2008

Sunday Travel Update

Here's an update on the stormy weather we expect for travel on Sunday. Be aware that there will be many airport delays due to the weather and heavy volume of traffic. The Sunday forecast for various cities:
Washington, D.C.: Rain, 44
Baltimore, MD: Rain, 42
Philadelphia, PA: Rain (some sleet possible early on), 43
New York City, NY: Rain, 43
Boston, MA: Rain in the afternoon, 43
Pittsburgh, PA: Rain, 40
Buffalo, NY: Rain developing, mixed with wet snow, 40
Cleveland, OH: Rain (mix at the start), 40
Raleigh, NC: Rain, 51
Charlotte, NC: Showers, 49
Atlanta, GA: Showers, 54
Chicago, IL: Snow (mixed with rain at the start), 37
Orlando, FL: Windy, showers, 78
Miami, FL: Windy, thunderstorms, 83

An update on the longer range...

Yesterday, I mentioned the longer range data focusing on a potential event for the weekend of December 6-7. Today, both main longer range models (the GFS and ECMWF) are suppressing or flattening the flow during this period and holding back energy over the Southwest. This would delay any storm development until Monday or Tuesday (12/8-9) and potentially drive the system west of us, as opposed to up the coast. As I've said, we're still way too far in advance to jump to any conclusions. Tomorrow, the model data could completely change again, so stay tuned...

Friday, November 28, 2008

Sunday Travel Weather...and a Look at the Longer Range...

As I previously mentioned, a significant storm will be affecting the area on Sunday that will likely have travel implications up and down the East Coast from southern New England to Florida. Most places from the Mid-Atlantic south won't have to deal with any winter weather, but a good, cold rain is likely. Airport connections will likely experience significant delays with bad weather expected in many locations. Here is the Sunday forecast for a bunch of cities:
Washington, D.C.: Rain, 44
Baltimore: Rain, 42
Philadelphia: Rain (some sleet possible early on), 43
New York City: Rain (a mix at the start), 44
Boston: Rain in the afternoon, 43
Pittsburgh: Rain/snow showers, 39
Buffalo: Rain, mixed with wet snow, 40
Cleveland: Rain (mix at the start), 40
Raleigh: Rain, 51
Charlotte: Rain, 49
Atlanta: Showers, 55
Chicago: Snow, 37
Orlando: Windy, showers, 78
Miami: Windy, thunderstorms, 83

A storm to watch in the longer range...

I've recently been talking about the fact that the next few weeks could bring some storminess and the two main longer range computer models are showing a potential storm to impact the area next weekend (Dec 6-7). It's rather intriguing, since there is a mass of cold air trying to enter the area prior to any event that takes place. The chill will be the result of a cold front that is right now expected to arrive on Thursday the 4th. It should be interesting to watch how the models handle this development in future runs. Right now, I'm certainly not ready to jump to any conclusions, as this is still 7-8 days in advance...but it's certainly something to watch. Stay tuned...

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

A dry start to the long weekend...but a wet finish...

We'll get the long holiday weekend off to a terrific start with plenty of sunshine tomorrow and afternoon highs in the seasonable mid and upper 50s. We could touch 60 on Friday, with increasing clouds as a front approaches from the west. It appears this front won't be able to squeeze out any rain, and in its wake we'll see a blend of clouds and sun on Saturday. It will be a little cooler, with afternoon highs in the low 50s. The problem this weekend will come on Sunday, as an area of low pressure approaches from the west and a second low develops on the coast. An onshore flow will bring abundant moisture, and periods of rain are likely throughout the day. Out in West Virginia, it may be cold enough for some snow. Travel could be impacted up and down the eastern seaboard from NYC to Florida. Be prepared and leave plenty of time if you have to travel. There will likely be airport delays as well, as this system will probably have an impact on connection cities like Charlotte, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, New York and Chicago.

Don't forget to check out the Winter Outlook...

My 8th Annual Winter Outlook is now posted on the main site. There's a 5-minute video presentation and the full text online. Check it out!

Have a happy and safe Thanksgiving weekend!

Winter Outlook on the Radio Today...

Listen to a chat about my Winter Outlook TODAY (Wednesday) on:

Lite 98 "Kat's Cafe" at around 1:20 P.M. and
107.3 BBT "Afternoons with Tony Booth" at approximately 5:45 P.M.

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Holiday Travel...the Winter Outlook is Posted!

The weather will not cause any problems for holiday travelers tomorrow across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. There will be some snow showers in the mountains of West Virginia and Pennsylvania extending north into New York State and the Great Lakes. The only potential for steady snow will come near Lakes Erie and Ontario, although these areas will be localized. Quiet weather is expected from the Southeast west to the Plains and Upper Midwest, as well as the Pacific Northwest. A big storm is entering central and southern California. Flash flood watches are posted in Los Angeles and San Diego and rain is expected to spread north and east into Nevada and Arizona, so be aware of this if you have a flight out to the West Coast.

My Winter Outlook is posted!

Yes, it's here! My 8th Annual Winter Outlook is posted on my main site and video is coming shortly! You can hear a summary of the outlook Wednesday on the radio. I'll be on "Kat's Cafe" on Lite 98 around 1:20 P.M. and "Afternoons With Tony Booth" on 107.3 BBT at approximately 5:45 P.M. Listen in!

Monday, November 24, 2008

A Wet Night...Winter Outlook Is Coming!

A cold front will bring showers to the region tonight. Our computer data suggests between .35" and .50" of rain by mid-morning tomorrow. Following the frontal passage, the sun will make an appearance tomorrow afternoon. If you're doing some early holiday travel tomorrow, morning showers will be the rule from Virginia Beach north through New England. The most significant issues will be over the interior Northeast and Great Lakes, where snow could be a problem. Cities like Detroit, Cleveland and Buffalo will get some of the white stuff and there could be some airport delays in Pittsburgh with snow showers in the forecast. Elsewhere, it looks quiet from the Southeast through the nation's mid-section and all the way to the West Coast.

The big travel day on Wednesday...

Wednesday and Thursday will bring a good amount of sunshine here, with afternoon highs near 50 on Wednesday and in the mid 50s for Thanksgiving. Holiday travel on Wednesday won't be terribly impacted by Mother Nature, although there will be more problems over the Great Lakes, with some steady snow in some locations near Lakes Erie and Ontario. Snow showers will also be scattered through the Appalachians in Pennsylvania and West Virginia. More quiet weather is expected from the Southeast through the Central U.S. and in the Pacific Northwest. A storm system entering California could bring some rain to Southern California and Nevada.

The rest of the holiday weekend here...

A rather potent system passing to our south may bring some showers later Friday and Saturday. The Southeast could see a soaking rain from this disturbance before it exits the coast later Saturday. Cooler air will be back with us later in the weekend and there are some signs that more cold air will be taking over next week. Our longer range computer data is having trouble figuring out all the details, but I have a hunch that we're going to see some snow during the first two weeks of December (possibly as early as next week). Keep that in mind...you heard it hear first...and we might be talking some accumulation!

Winter Outlook coming...

With all this talk of cold and maybe even some winter weather, I know everyone is anxious for the Winter Outlook. I'm putting the finishing touches on it, and it will be posted on my main site either tomorrow night or Wednesday, and I'll be giving a summary on Wednesday during "Kat's Cafe" on Lite 98 and "Afternoons with Tony Booth" on WBBT-107.3. Stay tuned...

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Winter Outlook Coming Soon!

Many of you have been asking when my annual Winter Outlook will be issued, and the answer is early next week! Stay tuned...

In the mean time, we have our first taste of winter in the air tonight. We saw scattered snow showers and flurries throughout the day, with rather blustery conditions. The wind will gradually diminish, but the coldest air of the season thus far will be sitting over us through tomorrow.

Check out the new video weather webcast on the main site tonight...mike-goldberg.com. You can also reach the site from richmondforecast.com.

Sunday, November 16, 2008

Leonid Meteor Shower Peaks Early Monday Morning

Every November, we talk about the Leonid meteor shower, which will peak very early Monday morning. I actually saw a meteor shoot through the sky last week, which was likely part of the Taurids, that peak in early November.

The Leonids go on for the next week, but this year's show is not expected to be anything special. Activity will probably be low, and even if there are outbursts, the Moon will be rather bright and likely get in the way. If you want to take a shot at seeing the Leonids, the best time is between midnight and the beginning of morning twilight. The most active mornings are expected to be Monday and Tuesday. The Leonids originate from the Comet Temple-Tuttle and if you know your sky, you want to look toward the constellation Leo.

The next sky show for meteors will be the Geminids, which peak on December 13th.

Saturday, November 15, 2008

Tornado Watch In Effect Until 7 P.M.



A Tornado Watch is in effect for central and eastern Virginia until 7 P.M. A developing line of storms is moving into the area. Large scale forcing ahead of a cold front will likely lead to intensification. Dangerous lightning, damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, hail to 1" in diameter and isolated tornadoes are possible in and near the watch area.

CLICK HERE FOR CURRENT SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS IN VIRGINIA

Friday, November 14, 2008

A Saturday Soaker...

Moisture moving in from the south ahead of an approaching cold front will mean showers overnight for us and some pretty good rain to start the weekend. As the front moves in, a few thunderstorms are possible as well, producing local downpours. Our two main computer models are projecting about 1.25" in the Metro Richmond area, so a healthy rainfall indeed. While the weekend will start very wet, it will end on a dryer note, with a blend of sun and clouds on Sunday. Temperature-wise, we'll be up and down, with readings in the upper 60s and low 70s tomorrow, dipping back down into the 50s on Sunday.

A parade of chill arrives early next week...

A series of disturbances will roll through the Mid-Atlantic early next week, ushering in progressively colder air. There will probably even be snow showers in the air over the higher elevations to the west, especially on Tuesday. High temperatures in the Richmond area will be in the mid 50s on Monday, dipping into the 40s by Wednesday. Overnight lows should get well down into the 20s mid-week, so we're in for a real taste of chill. No major storms are expected throughout the week.

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Unsettled the Next Few Days...A Real Cold Blast Next Week

The clouds have moved in and will stick around the next few days. Rain chances will be with us Thursday and Friday, with a warm front slowly lifting into the area. This will provide rising temperatures on Friday, probably into the upper 60s. We'll stay mild on Saturday, but more showers are possible as a cold front rolls in from the west.

Cooler air later in the weekend...

That front will bring cooler air to the region again on Sunday, with afternoon temperatures in the mid 50s. We'll dip into the lower 30s and some 20s Monday morning, but as the upper trough kicks out to the east, temperatures will moderate Monday afternoon. However, this will be short-lived, because...

A real cold blast for mid-to-late next week...

Another trough digging across the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley will bring a reinforcing shot of colder air by Wednesday. This will likely be the coldest air of the season so far and it may very well stay chilly through the following weekend (November 22-23). The European model upper level chart below shows the deep trough over the East Coast next Friday (November 21).

Monday, November 10, 2008

A Cold Night...

We're in for a cold night tonight, as temperatures will dip into the upper 20s and lower 30s by morning, under clear skies. Another dry day is on the way tomorrow, with temperatures rebounding into the mid and upper 50s during the afternoon. We'll start to see some clouds later in the day, as moisture streaks in from the southwest.

Unsettled later in the week....

We're still looking at unsettled weather later in the week, as moisture takes over in advance of an upper trough in the Central U.S. The highest rain chances will probably be on Thursday, but showers will prevail into Friday as well. Temperatures should rise into the 60s, before a cold front crosses the state on Saturday. This front will probably bring a few more showers on Saturday, before dry and much cooler air takes over for Sunday.

Temperatures moderate early next week, but then...

The deeping trough is anchored on the East Coast Sunday, but should lift out quickly on Monday. That means temperatures will moderate just a bit. However, while earlier computer model runs suggested temperatures could be on the rise, it now appears another trough will deepen over the Central U.S. and shift east, bringing more chilly weather later next week into the following weekend (November 22-23). As I always like to say, stay tuned...

Saturday, November 8, 2008

Cooler Air Moving In...

After a taste of 70-degree weather the past two days, we'll be getting somewhat cooler tomorrow. However, afternoon temperatures will still be in the low to mid 60s, about where they should be this time of the year. Dry conditions will be the rule as well, as high pressure builds over the region by Monday. This area of high pressure will set up a wedge along the East Coast Tuesday and Wednesday, while moisture tries to invade the region from the southwest. It appears only clouds will get in here later Tuesday and Wednesday, although a few light showers can't be ruled out.

Unsettled weather possible later in the week...

As the moisture increases, eventually our rain chances will go up a bit Thursday and Friday, although there may be a split in the deeper moisture over our area. That means we may not end up with much rain. We'll continue to monitor future computer model runs to see how they handle this developing weather situation. Either way, another strong cold front will cross the region by next Saturday, bringing some very chilly conditions to finish next weekend.

And beyond...

A deep trough sits over the area next Sunday (as seen on the European model below), but is already lifting out of the region on Monday. That means temperatures should moderate rather quickly, possibly returning above average much of the week of November 17th. The real cold will stay over the northern Rockies and Plains.

Monday, November 3, 2008

Rain For Election Day...

If you've been following my forecast the last couple of days, you know I've been concerned about coastal development and the potential for rain to dampen Election Day. Well it's happening now, as moisture is quickly invading Southeast and Central Virginia. A steadiy rain will be developing and continuing through the day. Looking at the latest NAM model forecast for the early afternoon, you can clearly see a coastal trough spreading moisture over much of the region. A coastal low will develop that should bring a pretty good dousing to the area. The latest computer model output is showing some impressive numbers. The evening run of the NAM model puts out about 0.75" by 7 P.M. Tuesday evening, with another 0.56 through Wednesday evening. The GFS (from this afternoon's run), which was the first model hinting at a wet Election Day, shows 0.68" by 7 P.M. Tuesday and another 0.90" by Wednesday evening. So both main short range models show the potential of a good inch and a half of rain.

Clearing and milder later in the week...

Looking at the 72-hour forecast chart from the NAM below, a distinct area of low pressure is moving away from the East Coast. This will allow our skies to clear on Thursday, with temperatures heading to near 70 degrees. The mild weather will continue into Friday, before the next cold front arrives to bring another change over the weekend.