Watch Likely This Afternoon/Evening

We continue to monitor conditions across the Mid-Atlantic as the severe weather threat grows. A Tornado Watch is already in effect from Washington, DC north to central NJ. Now a new watch will likely be issued farther south into Central Virginia as conditions continue to evolve that support the development of strong thunderstorms. As of midday, dew points are around 70 in Richmond and across most of Central Virginia, and the increasing low level moisture and shear should be be enough to spark some supercells. Damaging winds and hail, along with isolated tornadoes will be possible. The Storm Prediction Center will likely issue a new watch shortly.

Severe Weather Potential Saturday Afternoon and Evening

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire Mid-Atlantic in the risk area for potential severe weather Saturday afternoon and evening. Strong daytime heating, along with increasing low level moisture ahead of an approaching upper level trough, will set the stage for thunderstorm development. The main time to focus on will be the late afternoon and early evening hours.

Quiet weather heading into the Memorial Day weekend...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been in effect this afternoon, but the main action is well south and east of the Metro Richmond area and will continue moving out of the region. A secondary trough may kick off a passing shower or two on Wednesday, but otherwise rather quiet conditions are expected for the foreseeable future.

Slightly below average the next couple of days...

Temperatures this time of the year should average in the upper 70s during the day and mid to upper 50s overnight. We'll likely see readings a bit below this, averaging in the low to mid 70s for daytime highs and overnight lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.

The Memorial Day weekend outlook...

Wow, right now it looks terrific! High pressure building in from the north will offer plenty of sunshine and a warm-up is on the way as an upper ridge builds east. I'd expect temperatures in the mid 70s for Saturday, rising to around 80 on Sunday and well into the 80s Memorial Day.

90 degrees in our future?

In the longer range, temperatures may make a run at 90 degrees by Tuesday. However, a change is coming by mid-week as the next cold front moves into the region. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible later Wednesday into Thursday, with cooler air to finish the month of May. Our longer range charts show temperatures may come in a little below average the first couple of days of June, as another surface high builds in from the north.

Great pics/video from Thursday night storms...

Check out the following link to pictures and video of the Thursday night storms, including the Stafford County tornado, courtesy of storm chaser Chris White.

http://stormsrus.blogspot.com/

Tornado Watch for Eastern and Southern VA until 9:00 A.M.

A Tornado Watch is in effect across Eastern and Southern Virginia, that will expire at 9:00 A.M. Strong wind shear with thunderstorms moving through the area during the early morning hours may spawn a few isolated tornadoes.

Tornado Watch until 3 A.M.

A Tornado Watch is in effect for most of Central Virginia until 3 A.M. This includes the Metro Richmond area and Tri-Cities. Strong thunderstorms developing to the west will roll through the area over the next several hours and with impressive shear profiles in the atmosphere, isolated tornadoes are possible.

May Outlook and Drought Update

The state outlook for the month of May is for near average temperatures and precipitation. The central and southern parts will likely see slightly above average temperatures, while the north and west parts may see above average precipitation. I think the next week or so will produce temperatures above average, with a bit of a cooldown for the middle of the month. The longer range computer models are showing some potential for a couple of decent rain events over the next couple of weeks, possibly continuing the trend started in April (to some extent).

Speaking of April, it was the 3rd wettest on record in Richmond, with 8.32" observed. That is over 5 inches above average! Norfolk came in with 6.37" (10th on the all-time list). Over in Roanoke, 4.94" was observed, 1.33" inches above the April average. Moderate drought conditions continue west of Interstate 95, from Charlottesville south through Farmville to South Hill and Danville. Much of the state still remains in the "abnormally dry" category according to the National Drought Mitigation Center (see map below), although the recent rains certainly have helped to alleviate much worse conditions.

In terms of rainfall for the year so far, here are the stats:
Richmond: 2.15" ABOVE average
Norfolk: 0.87" BELOW average
Roanoke: 3.99" BELOW average

So despite the recent heavy rains in some places, many locations remain below average for the year. We can still use as much rain as we can get going into the hot summer months, when evaporation rates will exceed precipitation.