Thursday, September 25, 2008

A Rainy End to the Week...Tropical Storm Kyle forms...

The well-defined area of low pressure along the Carolina coast is not tropical, but it continues to wreak havoc on the Mid-Atlantic coast. The storm is producing some heavy rain, strong winds, coastal flooding, high surf and dangerous rip currents.

We will continue to see periods of heavy rain through the night and during Friday. The gusty winds will gradually diminish, but the breeze will still kick up to 15 and even 20 mph at times, with higher gusts along coastal areas. The system will move inland and then track northeast through Virginia on Saturday. This means we're in for more wet weather, although it will be a bit more showery. It should begin to dry out a bit on Sunday.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Kyle has formed well east of the Bahamas. It is moving north at about 13 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. Kyle could become a hurricane by Saturday as it tracks over the open waters of the Atlantic. At this point, as you can see from the hurricane model tracks below, Kyle is not a threat to the East Coast of the U.S., although it should help to maintain some high seas along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts through the weekend. For the latest information on Kyle, visit the National Hurricane Center...


Saturday, September 13, 2008

Watch LIVE Coverage of Hurricane Ike

Hurricane Ike has made landfall in Texas. Watch live coverage at the following link:

LIVE COVERAGE OF HURRICANE IKE






(image courtesy Liam Gumley/SSEC/CIMSS)

Saturday, September 6, 2008

Hanna--Saturday Afternoon Update


The heaviest rain bands have now moved out of the Metro Richmond area. There will be a few lingering showers and gusty winds will continue to plague the area into the early evening. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph are possible in the Metro Richmond area, with sustained winds of 25-35 with gusts to 50 mph near the coast. These winds will gradually diminish during the evening.
As of the 2 P.M. NHC advisory, Hanna is just northeast of Williamsbusrg and moving rapidly to the northeast at 25 mph. The storm center will be near southern New England later tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph and while little change in strength is likely, the storm is expected to lose tropical characteristics tomorrow.

Friday, September 5, 2008

Hanna Overnight Update...

Hanna is charging toward the SC/NC coastline and will make landfall during the early morning hours. It will then move northeast up the coast, drenching the Mid-Atlantic and eventually impacting the New England coast as well. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the entire area, as a general 3-4 inch rainfall is likely, with local amounts up to 10 inches. Tropical storm force winds are possible throughout the day along the coast and isolated tornadoes are also possible.

Here's the rundown on what to expect:

LOCATION, MOVEMENT AND STRENGTH (as of the 11 P.M. NHC advisory)

-- About 140 miles south-southwest of Wilmington, NC and 60 miles east-southeast of Charleston, SC
-- Moving north at 20 mph
-- Maximum sustained winds are at 70 mph...it's still possible Hanna could become a hurricane before making landfall along the southern NC or northern SC coast
-- Tropical storm force winds extend outward 260 miles from the center

EXPECTED RAINFALL & WIND

-- A general 3-4 inch rainfall is likely across central and eastern Virginia, with local amounts up to 10 inches
-- Sustained winds near the coast of 30-40 mph with gusts over 50 mph
-- Sustained winds in Metro Richmond of 15-30 mph with gusts to around 40 mph possible

CURRENT WATCHES/WARNINGS (as of the 11 P.M. NHC advisory)

Tropical Storm Warning: From Edisto Beach, SC north to Watch Hill, RI (including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, all of Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potamac, Washington, D.C., Delaware Bay, New York Harbor and Long Island Sound

Hurricane Watch: From north of South Santee River, SC to Currituck Beach Light, NC, including Pamlico Sound

Tropical Storm Watch: From Watch Hill, RI to Merrimack River, MA, including Block Island, Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket

FORECAST TRACK & INTENSITY

Below is the late night hurricane model output (courtesy of Colorado State University), with the forecast track from the various runs and the intensity forecast...














Hanna Racing North...8 P.M. Update

It's showtime for Tropical Storm Hanna along the East Coast. The storm is now located just under 200 miles south-southwest of Wilimington, NC. As it moves up along the coast overnight, we'll see the outer rainbands bring some heavier showers...with the heaviest rain coming tomorrow. Very heavy rain is likely to occur between 10 A.M. and 5 P.M., with a Flash Flood Watch posted for the entire area. Tropical storm force winds are possible throughout the day along the coast and isolated tornadoes are also possible. Here's the rundown on what to expect:

LOCATION, MOVEMENT AND STRENGTH (as of the 8 P.M. NHC advisory)

-- About 200 miles south-southwest of Wilmington, NC
-- Moving north at 20 mph
-- Maximum sustained winds are at 70 mph and Hanna could become a hurricane before making landfall late tonight in either northern SC or southern NC
-- Tropical storm force winds extend outward 290 miles from the center

EXPECTED RAINFALL & WIND

-- A general 3-4 inch rainfall is likely across central and eastern Virginia, with local amounts up to 10 inches
-- Sustained winds near the coast of 30-40 mph with gusts over 50 mph
-- Sustained winds in Metro Richmond of 15-30 mph with gusts to around 40 mph possible

CURRENT WATCHES/WARNINGS (as of the 8 P.M. NHC advisory)

Tropical Storm Warning: From Altamaha Sound, GA north to Sandy Hook, NJ (including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, all of Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potamac, Washington, D.C. and Delaware Bay

Hurricane Watch: From north of Edisto Beach, SC to Currituck Beach Light, NC, including Pamlico Sound

Tropical Storm Watch: From north of Sandy Hook, NJ to Merrimack River, MA, including Long Island, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket

THE FORECAST TRACK & INTENSITY

Below is the latest hurricane model output, with the forecast track from the various runs and the intensity forecast...














Thursday, September 4, 2008

Hanna to Bring a Quick Shot of Rain Our Way...




Tropical Storm Hanna is still heading toward the East Coast. The forecast track curves the storm up in the direction of eastern North Carolina and then near Virginia Beach before heading up off the New England coast. The forward speed will increase as the storm heads north. Most likely, Hanna will pass closest to VA Beach Saturday morning (see the official NHC forecast track below). This will bring a slug of moisture to the region. A few showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop in advance of the storm later tomorrow afternoon and evening, with the heaviest rain coming on Saturday. In terms of short-term model projections, the NAM brings nearly 2" of rain to Richmond, with the GFS closer to 3". The heaviest rain will likely be east of I-95, but that all depends on the exact track. Right now, you can see the hurricane model suite below is leaning to the east. Stay tuned for updates...



















Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Forecast Tracks for Hanna, Ike and Josephine...

The tropics continue to be extremely active, with three storms following in the wake of Gustav. Central Virginia will likely see rain from Hanna later Friday into Saturday. More on that coming as the storm gets closer. In the mean time, here are links to the National Hurricane Center forecast tracks for Hanna, Ike and Josephine...

FORECAST TRACK FOR HANNA


FORECAST TRACK FOR IKE

FORECAST TRACK FOR JOSEPHINE