Happy New Year!

Many thanks go out to the loyal followers of this blog and my web site. I hope you find it all informative and continue to return for your weather information in the new year.

Best wishes to all for a very happy, healthy and prosperous 2009!

Mike

A Cold Rain Coming...

While big snows are impacting the Northeast today, we are just dealing with the clouds, chill and some fog. There may be a spotty shower or two tonight, but for the most part we'll stay rain-free until the second half of the upcoming weekend.

Next storm hits Sunday...

Our next storm will impact the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Sunday. It will be a chilly rain for us, with surface temperatures stuck in the 40s, despite the air aloft being quite mild. Behind this storm, a blast of cold is on tap for Monday and Tuesday. Afternoon temperatures will struggle to get above 40 on Monday, with overnight lows in the 20s and teens. If you don't like the cold, the one positive will be the return of the sun.

The Christmas outlook...

We'll start warming up again on Christmas Eve (into the 50s), but the next front will be approaching from the west, and will likely bring a round of showers into very early Christmas morning. While there may be somewhat cooler air behind the front, the next air mass is not an Arctic air mass, so temperatures should be rather seasonal (upper 40s to low 50s). Beyond the Christmas holiday, we may see some milder air before the New Year arrives...

A Lot of Rain...

Low pressure developing over the Gulf states will track northeast along a cold front sliding through the Mid-Atlantic. That will bring periods of heavy rain to central and eastern Virginia through Thursday night. As colder air inches in from the Ohio Valley, freezing rain may become a concern over the higher elevations well north and west (counties along the Blue Ridge).

The map above shows the National Meteorological Center forecast for rainfall through Thursday night. In the metro Richmond area, the two main computer models are forecasting copious amounts of rain. The NAM forecasts a total of 3 1/2 inches by Friday morning, and the GFS comes in just over 4 inches! So be prepared for a real soaker during the next 36-48 hours.

We'll clear out Friday afternoon and enjoy a nice weekend, with lots of sunshine. Temperatures will only be in the mid 40s Saturday afternoon, but should rise into the mid 50s on Sunday.

A Soaking Rain on the Way...Then a Pattern Change...

A broad southerly flow has boosted temperatures into the 60s over the area today. We've got another very mild day tomorrow, with afternoon highs closing in on 70. However, it won't last all that long, as a cold front will slide into the area by Thursday morning. Temperatures will be lowering through the 40s on Thursday, as a developing area of low pressure across the Gulf Coast states heads northeast. That will bring us periods of rain, which could be heavy at times. Model guidance is showing the potential for a couple of inches of rain on through Thursday night. As the storm departs early Friday morning, it's even possible a few places could end as a brief period of wet snow if the moisture lingers long enough.

A pattern change on the way...

The pattern we've been in for several weeks now that has produced below "normal" temperatures on average is probably about to come to an end. Our longer range guidance shows a broad, rather flat ridge building over the Southeast next week. That will mean milder days for us. Beyond that, the ridge may strengthen Christmas week, leading to temperatures well above average for the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, meaning a warm Christmas could be ours this year.

Friday Update on Next Week's Event...

While we may still see a few snow showers/flurries late Saturday night and early Sunday morning, our attention is clearly focused on the significant storm for the middle of next week.

Today's model runs continue to favor a storm track to our west along a front approaching the Mid-Atlantic. That means ways of moisture bringing periods of showers beginning Tuesday and continuing through Thursday. However, the last wave could still prove to be somewhat interesting on Thursday. Here's a look at the data...

First, the European model, which clearly shows the mild flow ahead of the system and waves of moisture for both Wednesday and Thursday...

Now for the GFS, first off Wednesday morning's map, which agrees with the European and shows a milder day (temperatures probably in the 50s) with waves of moisture producing showers.

The last wave is what could prove interesting. The first map shown below if for Thursday morning, with a surface low developing way down south and high pressure anchored to the north. The high is a little too far north to drive enough cold air south for wintry precipitation here.

Then here's Thursday evening's map (effective 7 P.M. Thursday), which shows the surface high moving out of the way to the northeast, while the powerful storm moves up through the Delmarva. It would be too warm for winter weather along and east of I-95, but the mountains could get some snow in this scenario. That's the latest for now...we'll see what developments evolve over the weekend.

Update on the Coming Week...

Colder air will filter back into the Commonwealth tomorrow behind our latest cold front. This will set the stage for a weekend with afternoon highs in the mid 40s. A system moving through the Great Lakes will transfer its energy to another developing low well off the coast. As the upper energy crosses our region, we may see a few snow showers/flurries very late Saturday night or early Sunday morning. Nothing more than that...

An update on next week's storm...

It still looks like we'll be dealing with a significant precipitation event for the middle of next week. While yesterday's model runs were trying to figure out a way to make this a coastal system with cold air involved, I pointed out that climatology was not favorable for a substanial winter event, at least in central and eastern Virginia. Today's model runs look more reasonable, with more energy hanging back to the southwest. Here's a look at the European model, which shows waves of moisture moving through the Mid-Atlantic. This would mean periods of rain Tuesday, Wednesday and possibly Thursday. The forecast map is effective Wednesday morning at 7 A.M.

Taking a look at the GFS run, there is more of a trend toward the coast, but clearly the upper pattern holds the trough back to the west and it doesn't go negative (leaning back to the northwest) until the storm virtually passes, meaning it just won't get that cold until after the precipitation is gone. So there have been a few big changes today, showing that it's likely we just deal with rain next week...but we've still got plenty of time to watch for future changes. Stay tuned...

Snow Chances in the Next Week?

There may be quite a bit to talk about weather-wise over the next week. It's quiet for now, with southwesterly breezes boosting temperatures close to 60 tomorrow afternoon, ahead of the next cold front. The chill behind the front will produce afternoon readings in the mid 40s on Friday. Then another disturbance in the northern stream will throw its energy to a developing system off the coast this weekend. This coastal low will be too far east to bring us any precipitation, but the upper energy transferring to the coast may be enough to trigger some morning snow showers here on Sunday.

A more significant event next week...

What's more intriguing is a storm that is likely to affect the East Coast the middle of next week. By later Tuesday, a developing low across the south will spread moisture into our area. There will be mild air ahead of this system, so expect rain to arrive by later Tuesday. What happens after that could be rather interesting. Take a look at the latest European model run showing the surface low off the Carolina coast by early Wednesday.

The GFS (American) model shows the low tracking off the coast as well, but a bit later. The following map is effective Wednesday evening at 7 P.M. This could potentially bring a change to snow, with colder air oozing in from the north and west. The big problem for winter weather lovers is the lack of a cold high to the north.

The upper level pattern shows a trough going negative over the area, but will everything happen in tandem to create the necessary conditions for a change to snow? That is very much up in the air, and climatology doesn't really favor it. However, it will be interesting to watch how this situation evolves on the model data over the next few days. Stay tuned...

A Dazzling Sky Show!

Take a look at the sky Monday evening, as Venus and Jupiter will be separated by only 2 degrees and the crescent Moon will join them to make a splendid triangle! And if you miss this, Venus and the crescent Moon will pair up again (without Jupiter) on New Year's Eve.

Check out the full story on SkyandTelescope.com!