Saturday, February 28, 2009

Winter Storm To Affect Us Tomorrow Night...

We're still on track for some snow late tomorrow night into Monday morning. Storm #1 tracks across the region (to our southeast) tonight, bringing periods of rain, which will taper off by early tomorrow morning. Then storm #2 takes shape, spreading moisture back over the region later in the afternoon. It should be rain, as temperatures will be high enough to keep the precipitation liquid...at least for a while. A deepening upper low will move across South Carolina and then lift slowly northeast tomorrow night. The surface low should track to our southeast, although some of the latest model data has shifted a little more inland. This would keep somewhat milder air over southeast VA longer, meaning a bit more rain into the evening. I do think in Metro Richmond, we'll start to see sleet mix in and then a changeover to snow later in the evening. Periods of snow should continue overnight, leading to accumulation overnight. Just how much will depend on a few things...1) how soon the changeover takes place, 2) how fast the snow begins to accumulate due to a relatively milder and wet ground and 3) how much drier air gets wrapped into the system. There is the potential for a significant snowfall over parts of the area, but there are a lot of factors to consider. This is a late-season storm which brings even more questions to the equation.

My initial hunch for potential snow accumulation is 2-4 inches in and around Metro Richmond. Stay tuned...

Friday, February 27, 2009

Snow Possible Sunday Night/Monday...

We're in for a wild swing in our weather over the weekend. It may be mild now, but temperatures will take a tumble tomorrow. Low pressure moving along a cold front will bring a significant amount of rain to start the weekend (Saturday into early Sunday). What happens after that could be very interesting. All of the model data continues to develop a second low with a very deep upper level low "cutting" off and moving slowly across the South. The solutions suggest at least a threat for some snow here Sunday night into early Monday. At this point, it's just too early to tell what the correct solution will be and everything has to come into place to make this happen. There are several possibilities depending on the track of the surface and upper lows. A surface track off the coast will mean less precipitation and possibly rob us of moisture by the time it gets cold enough to snow. The upper low itself should be able to wring out precipitation, although that alone could be more limited to higher elevations.

At this point, I believe we do have the threat for at least some snow Sunday night into early Monday, so we could be waking up to white Monday morning! Stay tuned for updates...

Friday, February 20, 2009

Few Snow Showers/Flurries...Nothing More...

Here's the latest on the weekend situation...

Low pressure will track farther north over the weekend, across the Great Lakes. It appears that there will NOT be any secondary development...so the cold front that comes through by Sunday morning will be the only feature that potentially produces precipitation for us. It looks like most of what occurs would be behind the front and while it should be cold enough for snow, we'll have to overcome some pretty dry air in place. So it looks a few snow showers or flurries appears to be all we'll squeeze out from this system, Sunday morning into midday.

Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Update For the Upcoming Weekend...

The model data continues to be rather disorganized on the potential weekend event. Some hints at some new development to our south on Sunday, while the European has backed off. So....

At this point, no real changes to the forecast. It appears low level temperatures will be warm enough Saturday evening for a mix of rain and snow showers, although much of any precipitation that occurs will probably be Sunday morning, when we should be cold enough for snow. I don't see anything major, but some light snow or flurries will still be possible on Sunday. Stay tuned...

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Snow Chances This Weekend?

The system approaching our region tomorrow will clearly bring some rain and wind, but all eyes should be turning to the weekend. An intriguing clipper offers snow lovers some hope. The system approaches from the Ohio Valley/Midwest on Saturday. It should be dry during the day, with temperatures likely getting to around 50 degrees. That might lead some to believe how could it snow Saturday night? Well, colder air will be advancing into the region, especially aloft. Lower layer temperatures will be a concern, depending on when we get precipitation. The model data is pretty vigorous with this system crossing the Mid-Atlantic and the European model offers a new solution today. It keys in on additional upper level energy digging south and forming a new surface low on Sunday, which then tracks off the coast and would potentially bring a significant snow threat to our area. However, this is one run and until I see some consistency, I'm not going that route. It appears this will be a dynamic system though, and one I can certainly see giving us at least some light snow/snow showers very late Saturday night into Sunday. If the delayed scenario (Sunday into Monday) ends up taking shape, then watch out! Stay tuned for updates...
Below are the model forecast maps, first from the GFS for Sunday morning, then the European for Saturday and Sunday mornings...






























































Monday, February 16, 2009

Seasonable This Week...Snowflakes In the Air This Weekend?

Temperatures will average in the 40s most afternoons this week, although we could briefly eclipse 50 degrees with the arrival of the next weather maker on Wednesday. This will produce some rain Wednesday afternoon and night, with more strong winds likely into Thursday. Things will get a bit more interesting over the weekend, as colder air surges south from the Great Lakes and upper level energy digs into an Eastern U.S. trough. The longer range model data shows a surface low taking a clipper-like track through the Mid-Atlantic. Many critical values suggest any precipitation would be snow. We'll have to watch the temperatures in the lowest layer of the atmosphere, which could be just warm enough to counter everything else. However, it appears most of any precipitation that occurs could be at night. So snow lovers, you might get a taste of what you've been looking for. Don't look for a lot, but I think we have a shot at some light snow or flurries Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Stay tuned...

Saturday, February 14, 2009

The 40s Will Be More Common This Week...

Our weather remains pretty quiet this weekend, with a blend of clouds and sun. Afternoon temperatures on Sunday will average close to 50. Readings will be near or slightly below seasonal averages this coming week...mainly in the mid and upper 40s. Our next storm will threaten the area by mid-week, travelling mainly north of us and bringing some rain Wednesday afternoon and night. Behind this storm, temperatures will again average in the mid and upper 40s Thursday and Friday.

There is another system due to cross the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday. It probably won't have much moisture to work with, but anything it squeezes out could be frozen, as the longer range data suggests it will be cold enough for snow. So for now, I'm thinking we might see a few snow showers or flurries on Saturday the 21st. Stay tuned...

Friday, February 13, 2009

Update On the Weekend...and Next Week's Storm

The wind continues to diminish over the region and by late tonight, it will be very light. While we are enjoying another mild day, temperatures will be a little lower this weekend, averaging in the lower 50s tomorrow and near 50 on Sunday. While we originally expected some rain tomorrow, it looks like our chances are rather low, as moisture splits the region...either heading north or south of us. So the weekend could end up completely dry, although we will have some cloudiness to deal with, so don't expect sunny skies.

As for next week, temperatures will be closer to seasonal values. The next storm should impact the region on Wednesday. Its track appears to be well northwest of us, so my earlier post of this being a rain maker should hold up. More details as we get closer...

Thursday, February 12, 2009

Cooler Weather To Return...

We've got another day with mild temperatures in the 60s today. The main feature will be the high winds, sustained at 20-30 mph, with occasional gusts over 40 mph. "Cooler" air will gradually infiltrate the region, and temperatures will lower into the 30s overnight. Friday's highs will be a little lower than recent days, averaging in the upper 50s.

Some storminess on the weekend...

Temperatures will be much cooler this weekend, in the 40s. A system coming in from the west on Saturday will bring some rain to start the weekend on Valentine's Day. On Sunday, the model data is taking another piece of upper level energy and swinging it across the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast. There could even be a weak surface low developing, which could potentially produce some more precipitation, although it looks like it would be south of us. Something to keep an eye on though...

Another storm mid-week...and rumors of snow...

Temperatures will remain closer to seasonal norms next week, with afternoon highs in the mid and upper 40s Monday and Tuesday. Another storm will threaten the region on Wednesday. I've heard all sorts of rumors of snow flying around, but let's be reasonable here. First of all, the model data has been showing some numbers that could support snow, but the overall pattern doesn't quite fit. The main issue I see is the lack of a good cold air mass and strong high pressure to the north. It's just not there or it's too far north. The most recent model runs show an inland track, probably over or just northwest of us, which basically means rain (will there be coastal development though?). I could see the possibility of some winter weather at the start, with a change to rain. Of course it's still many days away, so anything can change, but for now it looks like a rain maker to me. Stay tuned!

Thursday, February 5, 2009

Today Is National Weatherperson's Day...

Yes, it's true. February 5th is National Weatherperson's Day! The day commemorates the birth of John Jeffries, recognized as one of America's first weathermen. He was born on February 5, 1745 and kept weather records into the early 1800s. Here's a good write-up on the day: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lot&storyid=21403&source=0

I wish the best to all my fellow meteorological colleagues today!

Wednesday, February 4, 2009

The Next Week and Beyond...

There may be a few flurries lingering over the area this evening, otherwise it will be quiet for several days. The big chill is back though, and temperatures will struggle to reach the freezing mark tomorrow, with overnight lows in the teens. By Friday afternoon, temperatures will begin to rebound, and we should reach the upper 40s, which is seasonable for early February.

A mild weekend...and early next week...

Temperatures should soar into the 60s this weekend, with a taste of spring in the air. West-southwest breezes will be a bit gusty at times and an approaching front could trigger a shower or two on Sunday. However, this front will weaken and high pressure will take back control by Monday. Temperatures will lower slightly (back into the 50s) on Monday, but should jump back above 60 on Tuesday.

Colder later next week...

All of our computer data suggests the next blast of cold will arrive later next week, just in time for Valentine's Day. We'll see how long it lasts. Some of the longer range data shows a colder second half of the month, but I'm not going to jump to any conclusions right now. It appears we have a weak La Nina developing and if you watched the Winter Outlook, you know that I felt this could impact our temperatures during February (possibly boosting the overall month above average).

Tuesday, February 3, 2009

Not Much Snow At All. If Any...

So what else is new? Another wave passing just south of us overnight is battling the drier air that I mentioned earlier...and will likely lose. I just don't see much happening here, other than a few flurries. Most places won't see any accumulation, although a dusting here and there can't be ruled out down near the Tri-Cities. There might be up to an inch or so across extreme Southside Virginia, near the North Carolina border. However, even that could be a stretch, as the dry air is winning out and this storm will scoot quickly off the coast and away from us. So snow lovers will have to wait a bit longer...

My Thoughts on Overnight Snow...

Low pressure will slide across the Appalachians tonight across extreme northern North Carolina near the Virginia border. This will provide some "lift" in the atmosphere, which should cause some light snow to fall over the region. One thing to keep in mind though is that we will be fighting some dry air that is inching in from the north. With this in mind, the most significant accumulations will be near the NC line. In Metro Richmond, I expect a bit of light snow and flurries overnight amounting to a dusting in most places, with a few locations possibly receiving up to around an inch (best shot in Chesterfield County). From the Tri-Cities south, there will be a steadier light snow that could produce an inch or two, with some locations in Southside VA near the border receiving up to 3 inches.

Most of the snow should be out of the region during the morning, although a few flurries may linger into the afternoon. The wintry chill will stay in the air through Thursday, but moderation will take place on Friday and readings should soar into the mild 60s during the upcoming weekend.

Some Winter Weather In the Air...

Well snow lovers, at least for many of you there's some white stuff in the air for the early morning. As the cold front whipped through central Virginia, temperatures took a tumble and our light rain changed to light snow in the metro. Grassy surfaces will have some accumulation during the early morning, but I don't expect any problems on the roads, as surface temperatures should remain just above the freezing mark. The precipitation should gradually taper off from west to east during the morning. The main "storm" we've been talking about for days now should pass well east of us, sparing us any significant precipitation. However, another piece of energy in the upper levels of the atmosphere will swing over the Mid-Atlantic later tonight, possibly triggering a few more snow showers or flurries into early Wednesday.

The chill will be back in the air for the next few days, with afternoon highs tomorrow and Thursday only in the 30s. Then a big warm-up is on tap going into the weekend, when readings should be in the 60s for Saturday and Sunday.

Sunday, February 1, 2009

An Uneventful "Storm"...Up and Down Temps...

Well it's pretty clear now that we won't see much precipitation from what originally appeared to be a big storm for us tomorrow and Tuesday. The main area of low should track off the coast, in the wake of a cold front inching through the area tomorrow night and Tuesday morning. Ahead of the front, temperatures will be well up into the 50s to near 60 again tomorrow...but then the chill builds back in on Tuesday. The front will bring a few showers tomorrow night, and the model data shows some precipitation for us on Tuesday, but I'm rather skeptical. If we can squeeze something out on Tuesday, it could very well be in the frozen form, so I have a few scattered snow showers as a possibility in the forecast. The blast of cold will linger all the way into Thursday, but the upper flow flattens quickly and a bit of a ridge builds over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic by the weekend. That may very well mean temperatures back into the 60s by Saturday!

Some folks have asked me about the pattern beyond this early week "storm," wondering if it could set us up for more action and possible winter weather during the first two weeks of February. After this brief blast of chill through Thursday, I don't see any major league cold until maybe Valentine's Day and even then, I'm not sure it would be anything significant. Of course, the way this winter is going...it's way too early to speculate. Winter's not completely over, but time is running out...