A Little Bit of Snow For Some This Morning...

Precipitation over the region early this morning will be a wintry mixture for some. South and east of the city, you can expect just rain...but areas north and west have seen light snow during the very early morning hours and that is likely to continue through the morning drive. In the metro, we're likely to see a mixture of light rain, sleet and wet snow. As daylight takes over, even though the sky is overcast, the sun does have an impact. And it's a strong March sun, so the lower layers will warm enough for the precipitation to switch to rain where there has been some snow early on. With temperatures mostly above the freezing mark, no accumulation is expected, although north of town a light coating is likely on cooler surfaces. Up in the Shenandoah Valley, some minor accumulation is likely as well.

Record High At RIC Airport...

We tied a record high Monday afternoon with a temperature of 82 degrees at RIC Airport. This tied the record set back on March 9, 2000. This came after two record lows last week, including an all-time record low of 10 degrees, set last Wednesday, March 4th.

A New Record Low For the Month of March!

The low temperature at RIC Airport this morning was 10 degrees. This sets a new record low for the date, breaking the old record of 11, set in 1943. It also establishes a new record low temperature for the month of March, breaking the old record of 11 set on several previous dates.

Record Low This Morning at RIC...

The low temperature of 11 degrees at RIC Airport this morning set a new record. The previous record was 14 degrees, set back in 1925.

Snow Totals Around the Area...

Here are some totals from across central Virginia as of mid-morning:

Midlothian 10.0"
Chester 6.0"
Short Pump 9.7"
Sandston 9.5"
Winterpock 7.5"
Petersburg 5.0"
Charles City 7.0"
Troy 9.5"
Palmyra 8.0"
Lake Monticello 7.5"
Hadensville 9.0"
Doswell 7.0"
Gum Tree 7.0"
Mechanicsville 7.0"
Rockville 6.9"
Bumpass 8.5"
Farmville 8.0"
Hampden Sydney 9.5"
South Hill 3.0"
Lawrenceville 2.5"
Disputanta 5.0"
Williamsburg 3.0"
Wakefield 2.3"
Dinwiddie 6.0"
Virginia Beach 1.0"
Franklin 1.0"
Newport News 1.3"

Snowfall Forecast...Sunday Afternoon Update

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Metro Richmond: 3-6 inches
Western Henrico/Hanover north to Caroline and west to Charlottesville: 4-8 inches
Louisa/Fredericksburg/Spotsylvania/Stafford: 8+ inches
Tri-Cities: 3-5 inches
Williamsburg: 2-4 inches
Northern Neck: 2-4 inches on the eastern end, 4-7 inches to the west
Farmville: 4-8 inches

The forecast remains on target. North and west of Richmond, mixed precipitation (with more sleet and snow the farther away from the city you go) continues, while from the city south and east it's mainly rain. Heavier precipitation will move into the region this evening and gradually colder air will start to take over. Everyone should see a changeover to snow by later tonight. There remain some concerns regarding accumulation, mainly the prolonged period of rain/sleet this evening (especially east of I-95) and the possibility of drier air wrapping into the system. That being said, this will be the most significant snowfall in many years across the region and we'll be waking up to a good coverage of snow on the ground. Stay tuned and stay safe!

The Snowfall Forecast...

As new model data continues to stream in, there remain some questions as to how much snow we could get late tonight through Monday morning. Here's the situation...temperatures have lowered into the low and mid 30s tonight and there's even been some sleet in the metro. Readings won't move much during the day, averaging in the mid 30s. The 2nd storm will move northeast along the Carolina coasts while an upper low deepens and moves from Georgia into the Carolinas. The precipitation from this system should begin as rain during the mid-afternoon hours. Strong high pressure is located well to the north, generally centered over the western Great Lakes. This location, while helping to funnel cold air south, will likely enable the strengthening surface flow to produce a bit of a easterly (or east-northeast) component to our wind flow during the late afternoon and early evening. The rain should begin to mix with sleet and even some snow during the early evening, although this east-northeast component could keep the mix of rain and sleet going a bit longer and therefore holding down potential snow accumulation. As the surface low moves farther north, the wind will then turn more northerly and this should enable the changeover to snow. There should be some good bursts of snow overnight into early Monday morning, although I am a little concerned about some drier air getting entrained into the system...another thing to keep an eye on.

Taking these concerns into account, here's my potential accumulation map. There is a lot of potential with this winter storm, and it should be noted that with a quicker changeover, higher totals are certainly possible. On the flip side, a prolonged mixture of precipitation types or dry air getting involved could lessen the amounts...so stay tuned for updates.

Metro Richmond: 3-5 inches
Tri-Cities: 3-5 inches
Williamsburg: 2-4 inches
Northern Neck: 2-4 on the eastern end, 3-6 to the west
West of I-95 from Western Hanover/Goochland north to Fredericksburg and west to Charlottesville: 4-6 inches with locally higher amounts
Farmville: 4-6 inches