Updated snowfall totals...

Here are some updated numbers (as of late evening)...

Midlothian: 11.8"
Brandermill: 11.5"
Chesterfield: 11.0"
Hopewell: 9.5"
Disputanta: 7.3" (Prince George)
Richmond-West End: 11.4"
Lakeside: 14.0"
Short Pump: 13.0"
Glen Allen: 12.0"
Sandston: 11.0"
Ashland: 14.0"
Ruther Glen: 11.5"
Columbia: 11.0" (Fluvanna)
Cartersville: 11.5" (Cumberland)
Gloucester County: 8.0"
Purdy: 8.5" (Greensville)
Enon: 11.0" (Goochland)
Mollusk: 11.0" (Lancaster)
Bumpass: 11.5" (Louisa)
Trenholm: 13.0" (Powhatan)
Warsaw: 13.0" (Richmond)
Stafford: 10.0"
Fredericksburg: 7.1" (3 miles NNE of the city)
King George: 8.8"
Charlottesville: 8.0" (1 mile NNE of the city)
Staunton: 7.2" (2 miles N of the city)
Haywood: 7.5" (Madison)
Gordonsville: 9.8" (Orange)

Snow amounts so far...

The snow keeps piling up, as the cold, dry air mass to the north gave in (at least to a certain extent). The "dry" nature of the snow makes it quite fluffy and therefore piles up rapidly. Measurements are tough due to the blowing and drifting, but amounts across the entire area have been impressive and should generally end up in the 8 to 14 inch range. Here are some reports as of early afternoon:

Richmond (Northside): 10.5"
Midlothian: 10.0"
Chestefield: 8.2"
Ruther Glen: 7.0" (Caroline)
Short Pump: 9.0"
Williamsburg: 5.0"
Bremo Bluff: 10.0" (Fluvanna)
Columbia: 10.0" (Fluvanna)
Roswell: 6.5" (Gloucester)
Studley: 12.8"
Rockville: 12.0"
Hanover: 11.3"
Mechanicsville: 10.0"
Ashland: 9.0"
Sandston: 8.0"
Norge: 6.3" (James City)
Bumpass: 10.2" (Louisa)
Mathews: 6.0" (Mathews)
South Hill: 10.0" (Mecklenburg)
Crewe: 8.0" (Nottoway)
Warsaw: 7.0" (Richmond)
Staunton: 6.0"
Crozet: 6.0" (Albemarle)
Fredericksburg: 5.0"
Chancellorsville: 5.0" (Spotsylvania)

Late night/early morning update...

Once again, the late evening model runs remain consistent, although they do pull the deeper moisture slightly to the north. This means a potential increase in snow amounts and also a greater chance that sleet will mix in across Southside VA (which of course could hold down some of the higher accumulations). I remain concerned that the very cold, dry air mass from the north will play a role in how much snow we get. However, I am tweaking a few numbers ever so slightly, indicating the potential for slightly more snow to the north. Here are the numbers:

Metro Richmond/Goochland/Powhatan/Charles City: 7-10 inches
Southern Chesterfield/Tri-Cities/New Kent/Williamsburg/Farmville: 8-12 inches
Southside Virginia: 10 inches plus, with locally 12 inches or more (depending on whether sleet mixes in)
Charlottesville: 4-7 inches
Fredericksburg: 3-5 inches
Northern Neck: 5-9 inches

Friday evening update...

No real changes to the forecast, as the data remains very consistent. Low pressure over Louisiana will track through the Gulf states tonight and redevelop along the Carolina coast tomorrow. Moisture will spread over the dome of Arctic air that is settling in across the Mid-Atlantic. This air mass is very dry, so it will take some time for the snow to develop, but it should do so during the wee hours of the morning. The most significant snow should occur from mid-morning through the afternoon tomorrow. The heaviest amounts still look to be south of Metro Richmond, from the Tri-Cities to the North Carolina line. The one fly in the ointment there could be a little sleet mixing in.

As I've discussed the last couple of days, there should be rather significant difference in amounts from north to south, as lighter snow will fall from Fredericksburg to DC. On average, I expect about 6-8 inches in Richmond, with higher amounts in Chesterfield County. Locations across Southside Virginia could see locally more than a foot of snow by late tomorrow evening.

To go along with the snow, temperatures will be bitter, averaging in the low to mid 20s during the afternoon and early evening. With gusty breezes, wind chills will be in the teens.

Here's what to expect in your neighborhood:

Metro Richmond/Goochland/Powhatan/Charles City: 6-9 inches
Southern Chesterfield/Tri-Cities/New Kent/Williamsburg/Farmville: 8-12 inches
Southside Virginia: 10 inches +, with locally more than 12 inches
Charlottesville: 4-7 inches
Fredericksburg: 3-5 inches
Northern Neck: 5-9 inches

Early Friday AM update: Snow totals appear on track

No changes to the forecast, except the start time might be even later tonight, probably after midnight for most (except to the southwest). Cold, dry air will dominate today as the clouds thicken up. Low pressure will track across the South and then redevelop along the North Carolina coast tomorrow. The most significant snow will occur mid-morning through the afternoon hours. Temperatures will be in the 20s, so it should be a rather fluffy snow. Accumulations will vary considerably from north to south, with the heaviest snow likely just south of Petersburg down into North Carolina. Here's a review of my forecast numbers:

Metro Richmond east towards Williamsburg: 5-9 inches (highest across the southern half/Chesterfield County)
Tri-Cities south to the NC line: 9 inches + (locally over a foot)
Charlottesville: 4-7 inches
Fredericksburg: 3-5 inches

Stay tuned!

Snow update with accumulation forecast...

As I mentioned earlier, the model data has reached a pretty good consensus regarding the winter storm to affect us tomorrow night and Friday. Despite today's nice weather, an arctic front will cross the region tonight, plunging temperatures into the 20s by morning. Cold, dry air will continue to ooze into the area tomorrow. Meanwhile, low pressure will track through the Gulf states and then redevelop along the North Carolina coast. Moisture will begin to overspread the region later tomorrow, but with cold, dry air in place, it will take some time for snow to develop. It should begin in the metro sometime during the evening. The time to watch for the most significant snow will be Saturday morning into early afternoon. The track of the storm will be critical to snow amounts, as a sharp contrast will likely be present across the Commonwealth from very light accumulations near DC to a heavy snowfall in southern Virginia to the North Carolina line.

Based on the current data, here are my current thoughts:

Metro Richmond: 5-9 inches (highest across the southern half/Chesterfield County)
Tri-Cities south to NC: 9 inches + (locally a foot or more possible...assuming sleet doesn't mix in)
Charlottesville: 4-7 inches
Fredericksburg: 3-5 inches

Stay tuned for updates...

Update: Significant snow for Richmond

A quick midday update...the model data is converging on a solution with the storm, which will track across the Gulf states and then redevelop along the North Carolina coast. Moisture will spread into very cold, dry air over our region later tomorrow evening, with the most significant snow occurring Saturday morning. Amounts are still somewhat in question, with a sharp increase in amounts from north to south. Based on the newest information, my initial hunch is a either a 4-8 inch or 5-9 inch snowfall for Metro Richmond, with potential amounts of 12"+ across southern Virginia, depending on whether any sleet or wintry mix takes place there. To the north, amounts will quickly taper into the 2-4 inch range around Fredericksburg and very little in the DC area. These are my initial thoughts, with an update coming later this afternoon...

Snow coming Friday night and Saturday...

Snow is returning to the region by Friday night, as a storm takes shape over the Gulf states. This storm will track to the Carolina coast and then move northeast into the Atlantic Saturday night and Sunday. The snow probably won't start until at least later Friday evening, due to very dry air in place over the Commonwealth. In fact, cold, dry air oozing in from the north could have an impact on the track of the storm, which will ultimately determine how much snow we see. At this point, it appears several inches are possible over the Metro Richmond area (with snow to liquid ratios relatively high). The highest amounts should be south of the Metro, from the Tri-Cities down into northern North Carolina. A significant gradient in snow totals is looking likely, and north of the area up towards Fredericksburg may not end up seeing much at all. Stay tuned for updates as new data becomes available...