Mike's Eye on the Weather

Freeze Warning overnight from 3 A.M. until 9 A.M.

2011-10-29T17:53:00.000-04:00

A Freeze Warning is in effect along and west of I-95 (including Metro Richmond) from 3 A.M. until 9 A.M. Sunday. Overnight lows are expected to be near 30 degrees across the region, with lower 30s in the Metro Richmond area. A Freeze Warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.

Tornado Watch until 11 A.M. for eastern Virginia...

2011-08-27T01:11:00.002-04:00

A Tornado Watch is in effect until 11 A.M. for eastern Virginia, including Williamsburg, Hampton Roads, and much of the Middle Peninsula and Northern Neck.

CLICK HERE FOR CURRENT WARNINGS IN VIRGINIA

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9:00 P.M.

2011-08-25T15:54:00.001-04:00

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 9 P.M. for much of central Virginia, including Metro Richmond. Strong storms moving through the area may produce damaging wind gusts to 70 mph.

CLICK HERE FOR CURRENT WARNINGS IN VIRGINIA

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9 P.M.

2011-08-21T15:09:00.000-04:00

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for central and eastern Virginia until 9 P.M. tonight. Some strong storms across the region may produce damaging wind gusts to 70 mph and large hail.

CLICK HERE FOR THE CURRENT WARNINGS IN VIRGINIA

Extraordinary heat & humidity cover the East Coast!

2011-07-22T18:47:00.000-04:00

What an amazing outbreak of extreme heat & humidity we've had, which started over the central U.S. and spread to the East Coast. The coverage area of triple-digit heat has been extraordinary today up & down the coast. Check out the numbers...
Portland, ME 100 (record)
Concord, NH 100 (record)
Hartford, CT 103 (record)
Boston, MA 103 (record)
Providence, RI 101 (record)
Bridgeport, CT 103 (record)
Newark, NJ 108 (all-time record...highest temp ever recorded at Newark!)
Islip, NY 100 (record)
JFK Airport, NY 103 (record)
LaGuardia Airport, NY 103 (record)
Central Park, NY 104 (record)
Williamsport, PA 103 (record)
Harrisburg, PA 103 (record)
Atlantic City, NJ 105 (record)
Georgetown, DE 104 (record)
Wilmington, DE 102 (record)
Philadelphia, PA 103 (record)
Reading, PA 106 (record)
Trenton, NJ 106 (record)
BWI Airport, MD 106 (record)
Dulles Airport, VA 105 (all-time record...highest temp ever recorded at Dulles!)
Norfolk, VA 102 (record)
Wallops Island, VA 100 (record)
Richmond, VA 102
Salisbury, MD 102
Charlottesville, VA 102
Hagerstown, MD 100
Martinsburg, WV 103
Lynchburg, VA 100
Fayetteville, NC 102
New Bern, NC 100
Wilmington, NC 100
Florence, SC 101
Columbia, SC 104
Orangeburg, SC 102
Augusta, GA 100

Excessive Heat Warning in effect Thursday through Saturday

2011-07-20T17:06:00.007-04:00

An Excessive Heat Warning has been issued for all of central Virginia and much of the Commonwealth, effective 11 A.M. Thursday through 8 P.M. Saturday evening. The combination of extreme heat and humidity will produce heat indices of 105-110 degrees, with a few readings up to 115 degrees possible.

An Excessive Heat Warning means that a prolonged period of dangerously hot conditions will occur. Stay hydrated and in air-conditioned rooms as much as possible. Check on the elderly and keep your pets inside in air conditioning.

Take extra precautions if you have to be outside. Try to reschedule strenuous activities to the early morning or evening hours. Wear lightweight, loose fitting clothing when possible and always remember to drink plenty of water.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9 P.M. for northern VA...

2011-07-08T14:04:00.000-04:00

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 9 P.M. from Charlottesville to Fredericksburg & points north. Strong thunderstorms developing across the region this afternoon & evening will contain very heavy rain & frequent lightning, along with the possibility of damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph & hail.

CLICK HERE FOR CURRENT WARNINGS IN VIRGINIA

Flash Flood Watch in effect north & west of Richmond through Saturday morning...

2011-07-08T13:13:00.002-04:00

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect north & west of Richmond through Saturday morning. A slow moving cool front will produce numerous showers & thunderstorms across the region late this afternoon through tonight. Torrential downpours in some of the storms may produce flash flooding. Severe weather is a possibility from late afternoon through the evening, so stay tuned for any watches & warnings.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10 P.M.

2011-07-04T14:44:00.001-04:00

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for all of central and eastern Virginia until 10 P.M. Storms developing across the region may produce damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and large hail.

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Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9 P.M .near the coast...

2011-06-24T14:47:00.000-04:00

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 9 P.M. for the Northern Neck, Middle Peninsula and Hampton Roads. Strong thunderstorms developing across this region may produce damaging wind gusts to 70 mph and hail.

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Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10 P.M. just north of Richmond...

2011-06-01T14:33:00.000-04:00

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 10 P.M. for Hanover County and points north. A few strong storms developing across northern and central Virginia late this afternoon and this evening may contain damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and hail.

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The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season begins today!

2011-06-01T00:34:00.000-04:00

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.

The names that will be used this season are:

Arlene              Bret               Cindy             Don
Emily              Franklin         Gert               Harvey
Irene                Jose               Katia              Lee
Maria               Nate              Ophelia          Phillippe
Rina                 Sean              Tammy           Vince
Whitney

Severe Thunderstorm Watch for northern VA until 8 P.M.

2011-05-27T13:07:00.002-04:00

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for northern Virginia, including Washington, DC & Charlottesville, until 8 P.M. Strong thunderstorms across the region may produce damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and hail. The Severe Thunderstorm Watch for central & southern Virginia remains in effect until 7 P.M.

CLICK HERE FOR CURRENT WARNINGS IN VIRGINIA

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 7 P.M. (includes Metro Richmond)

2011-05-27T12:18:00.001-04:00

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 7 P.M. for the Metro Richmond area and much of central Virginia. Strong thunderstorms across the region may produce damaging winds up to 70 mph and hail.

CLICK HERE FOR CURRENT WARNINGS IN VIRGINIA

Severe Thunderstorm Watch cancelled...

2011-05-24T17:12:00.002-04:00

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been cancelled for the Metro Richmond area and most of central Virginia, as the threat for severe weather has diminished. Strong storms that were over Hampton Roads have now moved into the Atlantic as well.

A new Tornado Watch is in effect for part of southwest Virginia, including the Danville area, until 10 P.M. tonight.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 8 P.M.

2011-05-24T12:53:00.001-04:00

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for all of central and eastern Virginia until 8:00 P.M. Strong storms developing across the region may produce damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and hail.

CLICK HERE FOR CURRENT WARNINGS IN VIRGINIA

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 6 P.M. for northern Virginia...

2011-05-23T13:00:00.001-04:00

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 6 P.M. well north & west of Richmond. This watch includes the Charlottesville, Fredericksburg and D.C. areas. Isolated strong storms may contain damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and hail.

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Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9 P.M. just north of Richmond...

2011-05-18T13:23:00.001-04:00

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 9 P.M. from Hanover County north. Isolated strong storms may produce damaging wind gusts to 70 mph and hail.

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Watch extended, now includes Metro Richmond...

2011-05-14T18:54:00.001-04:00

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been extended to include the City of Richmond, Hanover, Henrico, Charles City, King & Queen, Gloucester, Middlesex, King William, New Kent, James City, Mathews and York Counties.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 8 P.M. (includes Chesterfield, but not Henrico)

2011-05-14T15:38:00.000-04:00

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 8 P.M. for Chesterfield County and points south and east. A few strong storms may contain damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and hail.

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New Tornado Watch east of I-95 (including the Tri-Cities) until 9 P.M.

2011-04-28T15:41:00.002-04:00

A Tornado Watch is in effect east of I-95 until 9 P.M. More thunderstorms crossing the region may produce damaging wind gusts to 70 mph, hail and isolated tornadoes. The watch includes the Tri-Cities, Williamsburg and Hampton Roads.

CLICK HERE FOR CURRENT WARNINGS IN VIRGINIA

Tornado Watch in effect until 3 P.M.

2011-04-28T12:33:00.001-04:00

A Tornado Watch remains in effect for much of central and eastern Virginia until 3 P.M. this afternoon.

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New Tornado Watch until 8 A.M. for areas west & north of Richmond...

2011-04-28T00:51:00.003-04:00

A Tornado Watch is in effect until 8 A.M. west of Richmond and also well to the north. The watch includes Charlottesville, Fredericksburg, Washington, D.C., Lynchburg & Danville (and west). Storms moving across the region may produce damaging wind gusts to 70 mph, hail and tornadoes.

CLICK HERE FOR CURRENT WARNINGS IN VIRGINIA

New Tornado Watch until 2 A.M....includes Metro Richmond

2011-04-27T18:26:00.003-04:00

A new Tornado Watch is in effect until 2 A.M. for Metro Richmond, the Tri-Cities and all counties along and west of Interstate 95. Scattered strong thunderstorms are expected across the region that may produce damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, large hail and potentially isolated tornadoes.

CLICK HERE FOR THE CURRENT WARNINGS IN VIRGINIA

Watch cancelled for Richmond, but remains in effect for Charlottesville & Frederickburg...

2011-04-27T16:14:00.000-04:00

The Tornado Watch has been cancelled for Metro Richmond, but remains in effect to the north, including Charlottesville & Fredericksburg until 8 P.M.

Tornado Watch until 8:00 P.M.

2011-04-27T14:34:00.002-04:00

A Tornado Watch is in effect until 9 P.M. for Metro Richmond and all counties along and west of Interstate 95. Scattered strong thunderstorms are expected across the region that may produce damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, large hail and potentially isolated tornadoes.

CLICK HERE FOR THE CURRENT WARNINGS IN VIRGINIA

Severe Thunderstorm Watch to the west until 9 P.M.

2011-04-26T15:16:00.003-04:00

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 9:00 P.M. well west of Richmond. The watch area includes Charlottesville, Lynchburg and Danville. Strong storms may produce damaging wind gusts to 70 mph and large hail.

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Tornado Watch until 9 P.M. (Particularly Dangerous Situation)

2011-04-16T12:13:00.003-04:00

A Tornado Watch is in effect until 9 P.M. for central and southern Virginia. Destructive tornadoes, large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts to 70 mph and dangerous lightning are possible. This watch includes Metro Richmond, the Tri-Cities, Emporia, Williamsburg and Hampton Roads, as well as west to Farmville and Lynchburg. Conditions are favorable across this area for severe weather this afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center is calling this a "particularly dangerous situation," so please take it seriously and seek shelter when severe weather threatens.

CURRENT WARNINGS IN VIRGINIA

Tornado Watch until 10 A.M.

2011-04-05T02:24:00.006-04:00

A Tornado Watch is in effect until 10 A.M. for all of central and eastern Virginia. Strong thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible in the watch area. Dangerous lightning, hail and damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph are also possible. The watch means conditions are favorable for severe weather.

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Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Central Viriginia until 1:00 A.M.

2011-03-23T18:23:00.002-04:00

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 1:00AM for most of central Virginia, including Metro Richmond, the Tri-Cities, Williamsburg & Hampton/Newport News. Strong thunderstorms may produce dangerous lightning, damaging winds up to 70 mph and large hail. An isolated tornado or two can't be ruled out.

CLICK HERE FOR THE LATEST WARNINGS IN VIRGINIA

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 11 P.M. well north & west...

2011-03-23T16:18:00.002-04:00

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 11:00 P.M. well north and west of Richmond, from a Charlottesville/Fredericksburg line and points north & west. Strong thunderstorms will likely move into the area this evening, that could produce dangerous lightning, damaging wind gusts to 70 mph and large hail. There is also the possibility of an isolated tornado or two. These storms could potentially impact the metro Richmond area later on, so another watch could be issued. Stay tuned...

CLICK HERE FOR CURRENT WARNINGS IN VIRGINIA

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 8 P.M.

2011-03-10T14:30:00.002-05:00

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 8 P.M. for much of central and southern Virginia. This includes Metro Richmond, the Tri-Cities, Charlottesville and Fredericksburg. Isolated strong thunderstorms may produce damaging winds and hail.

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Also, a Flood Watch remains in effect for the area through this evening.

Tornado Watch until 11 P.M. for central & southeast Virginia...

2011-03-06T19:22:00.002-05:00

A Tornado Watch is in effect until 11 P.M. for much of central and southeast Virginia. This includes the Metro Richmond area and points south and east down to Hampton Roads. Strong thunderstorms moving across the region may produce damaging winds, hail and even a few tornadoes.

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Tornado Watch until 4 P.M. Louisa County & points N & W

2011-02-28T11:45:00.002-05:00

A Tornado Watch is in effect until 4 P.M. for parts of central Virginia, including Louisa County and points north and west. A line of strong storms moving into and across the state may produce dangerous lightning, damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, hail and potentially tornadoes.

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Winter storm brings significant snow to central and especially eastern VA...

2010-12-26T02:29:00.010-05:00

We saw a general 1-3 inch snowfall across central Virginia Saturday afternoon and evening, due to a disturbance moving over the region in advance of the developing coastal storm. More snow is likely through this afternoon, as the storm takes shape off the Carolina coast and begins to strengthen as it moves north. As I've talked about the last couple of days, the heaviest snow will be focused well east of Richmond. However, significant accumulations will still occur near I-95. Many places in the metro could add a couple of inches to what we saw earlier, bringing totals into the 3-6 inch range along and east of I-95. West of I-95, I expect total amounts to be in the 2-4 inch range, dropping off to less than 2 inches farther west toward Charlottesville. The bullseye for heavy snow will be near the coast, from Williamsburg to Hampton Roads, including the Middle Peninsula and Northern Neck, where at least 7-12 inches are likely, with locally higher amounts.

A few flakes in the air for Christmas...

2010-12-24T03:15:00.002-05:00

Today will be a nice, sunny day to finish the week. Then some clouds will roll in tonight for Christmas Eve. An upper level disturbance approaching from the northwest should trigger some snow showers and flurries for Christmas Day, potentially leaving a light dusting on the ground. Of course the big story the last couple of days has been the impending development of a coastal storm. The model data is in good agreement that the storm track will be a bit too far south and east of us to have any significant impact on central Virginia. However, a few periods of light snow or flurries are possible on Sunday, particularly east of Interstate 95. Either way, as the storm heads up the East Coast (well east of the coastline), strong winds and cold will be the rule Sunday and Monday. Then a significant break in the chill is on tap by mid-week. Temperatures should bounce above 50 degrees and I wouldn't be surprised to see temperatures in the 60s for the final day of 2010!

Total Lunar Eclipse Tonight!

2010-12-20T12:26:00.014-05:00

Photo credit: Jim Fakatselis

Get ready for a terrific sky show tonight! Mainly clear skies are expected over central Virginia, so we should have a spectacular view of the total lunar eclipse taking place. This will be the first lunar eclipse falling on the winter solstice (in the Northern Hemisphere) in nearly 400 years!

A lunar eclipse occurs when the Moon passes through the Earth's shadow. The Earth literally hides the sun behind it! The partial eclipse phase will begin at 1:33AM ET. Totality begins at 2:41AM ET and lasts for about 72 minutes. The absolute "best" view is expected at 3:17AM ET as the moon will be deepest in the shadow and should show off some beautiful hues of red. The reason for the red appearance you see is all the sunrises and sunsets that occur around the ring of the Earth during the eclipse. The atmosphere and scatters and refracts sunlight, and some of that indirect sunlight passes through the Earth's atmosphere sending it into the shadow.

For more information on tonight's eclipse, check out these links:

Sky & Telescope (the basics on tonight's eclipse with detailed times)

Shadow & Substance (great visuals)

Winter Storm Update...

2010-12-16T01:48:00.004-05:00

The map above shows areas under a Winter Storm Warning in pink and those under a Winter Weather Advisory in purple.

Snow will develop across the region this morning, around 8-9AM in the Metro Richmond area (earlier to the west and later to the east). Significant accumulations are likely by afternoon, when the snow will begin to mix with sleet at times (around 2-3PM). More mixing will occur south of I-64. I expect a general 3-5 inch snowfall most of central Virginia, with 2-4 inches in Charlottesville and Fredericksburg.

Cities under a Winter Storm Warning include: Richmond, Petersburg, Colonial Heights, Wakefield, Williamsburg, Emporia and Farmville. Places under a Winter Weather Advisory include Charlottesville, Fredericksburg, Harrisonburg, Washington, DC and Hampton Roads.

The wintry precipitation will taper off during the evening and skies will be partly sunny on Friday, although it will still be quite cold with the snow cover in place. The next system we're watching for the weekend should scoot by to our southeast Saturday and Saturday night, with the greatest precipitation chances coming over extreme southeast Virginia.

Winter Storm Heading Our Way...

2010-12-15T14:14:00.003-05:00

A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for much of central Virginia through tomorrow evening. Low pressure over the Plains will move into the Tennessee Valley tomorrow morning. This will spread a swath of snow across the Commonwealth, which will continue through the afternoon...mixing with sleet at times. Significant accumulations are likely and the afternoon commute will be very tricky.

Expect snow to develop sometime after 8AM in the Metro Richmond area. It will quickly pick up and continue into the afternoon. Sleet may mix in at times during the afternoon, particularly after 2PM. More mixing will occur south of I-64. I expect a general 3-5 inch snowfall across the entire area, with the potential for a few 6-inch totals where sleet doesn't occur. The Charlottesville and Fredericksburg areas should anticipate an accumluation of 2-4 inches.

The wintry precipitation should taper off during the evening and skies should be partly sunny on Friday. Another potential system off the Southeast coast could give us a glancing blow Saturday and Saturday night, with the highest probability for precipitation coming over southeast Virginia/Hampton Roads. Stay tuned for any possible changes to the forecast over the weekend...

Winter Weather Advisory for Southside VA tonight

2010-12-04T15:32:00.008-05:00

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for Southside VA and many counties just south of I-64 until 1 A.M. A period of light snow (mixed with some sleet and rain) will occur this evening and as temperatures lower, we may see some minor accumulation on grassy surfaces. There may be some slippery spots on bridges, overpasses and elevated highways. In the Metro Richmond area, some snow flurries are likely to occur.

Tornado Watch in effect until 9 A.M.

2010-12-01T02:23:00.002-05:00

A Tornado Watch is in effect for Central Virginia until 9 A.M. The watch area includes Metro Richmond, the Tri-Cities, Charlottesville, Williamsburg and Fredericksburg. A line of storms moving into the region during the early morning hours may produce damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and the potential for isolated tornadoes.

CLICK HERE FOR THE LATEST WARNINGS

Frost Advisory in effect overnight from 3 A.M. until 8 A.M.

2010-11-01T17:16:00.002-04:00

A Frost Advisory is in effect from 3 A.M. until 8 A.M. Tuesday morning for most counties along and east of I-95. This includes Metro Richmond. Temperatures will lower into the mid 30s during this time, so frost is possible. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

Update: Frost Advisory for much of central VA

2010-10-29T15:53:00.004-04:00

An update on the advisory/warning situation overnight...

A Frost Advisory is in effect from 3 A.M. until 8 A.M. for much of central Virginia, including Metro Richmond.

A Freeze Warning is in effect from to the west of Richmond from 3 A.M. until 8 A.M., including Goochland, Powhatan, Louisa and Amelia Counties, as well as communities up and down Route 29.

Sensitive or tender vegetation should be brought indoors to be protected from temperatures that will lower to near 32 degrees in many places, especially in the Freeze Warning area.

Freeze Warning Tonight West of Richmond...

2010-10-29T12:26:00.002-04:00

A Freeze Warning is in effect from 3 A.M. until 8 A.M. Saturday for counties well west of Richmond, including Goochland, Powhatan, Louisa, Fluvanna, Cumberland and points south to the NC border. A Freeze Watch is in effect up and down Route 29, including the Charlottesville area. A Freeze Warning means that sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.

Tornado Watch in effect until 8:00 P.M.

2010-10-27T12:21:00.002-04:00

A Tornado Watch has been issued for most of central and eastern Virginia until 8 P.M. This includes the metro Richmond area, the Tri-Cities, Fredericksburg and Williamsburg, as well as the Northern Neck. It does not include Hampton Roads. Strong storms will move across the region that may contain damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, hail and a few tornadoes.

CLICK HERE FOR THE LATEST WARNINGS

Tornado Watch in effect North & West until 3 A.M.

2010-10-26T21:31:00.002-04:00

A Tornado Watch is in effect until 3 A.M. for Charlottesville, Fredericksburg and points north and west of there. Strong storms with wind gusts up to 70 mph, hail and isolated tornadoes are possible.

CLICK HERE FOR THE LATEST WARNINGS

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 8 P.M.

2010-10-25T14:40:00.002-04:00

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 8 P.M. mainly south of I-64. This does not include metro Richmond, but DOES include the Tri-Cities, Williamsburg and Hampton Roads. A few strong storms are possible that will contain dangerous lightning, along with the possibility of damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and hail.

CLICK HERE FOR THE LATEST WARNINGS

Frost Advisory from 2 A.M. until 8 A.M. along and west of Interstate 95...

2010-10-22T19:33:00.013-04:00

A Frost Advisory is in effect overnight along and west of I-95, from 2 A.M. until 8 A.M. Temperatures will lower into the 30s overnight in rural communities, which will lead to some scattered or patchy frost developing. Sensitive plants should be covered or brought indoors to be protected from frost formation.

Tornado Watch in effect for Hampton Roads until 7 A.M.

2010-09-29T21:44:00.002-04:00

A Tornado Watch is in effect for the Hampton Roads area down into the eastern Carolinas until 7 A.M. Conditions are favorable for some severe weather to develop overnight.

Tropical Depression #16 in the Caribbean...should become a tropical storm shortly...

2010-09-28T14:54:00.002-04:00

Tropical Depression #16 has formed in the Caribbean and is close to tropical storm strength. It is expected to become Tropical Storm Nicole later today. The system is 160 miles south of Havana, Cuba and 370 miles south-southwest of Miami, FL. In Florida, a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Jupiter Inlet south to East Cape Sable and Florida Bay, and for the Florida Keys. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from north of Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet, and north of East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee.
This storm is expected to merge with the front along the East Coast and bring potentially heavy rain to central and eastern Virginia tomorrow night into Thursday. Stay tuned...

Tropical Storm Igor forms...

2010-09-08T11:55:00.001-04:00

Tropical Storm Igor has formed in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the southernmost Cape Verde Islands...

Hermine has made landfall...

2010-09-06T23:47:00.000-04:00

Tropical Storm Hermine has made landfall as a strong tropical storm over northeastern Mexico, and is producing very heavy rain north into southern Texas...

TD #10 now Tropical Storm Hermine and heading toward land...

2010-09-06T12:42:00.004-04:00

Tropical Depression #10 is now Tropical Storm Hermine, packing maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from from La Cruz, Mexico to Port O'Connor, TX and a Hurricane Watch is posted from Rio San Fernando, Mexico north to Baffin Bay, TX. The center of Hermine is moving north-northwest at about 13 mph and is expected to approach the coast of northeastern Mexico or extreme southern Texas later tonight. Additional strengthening is forecast, and it's possible Hermine could reach hurricane strength before landfall. As of midday, tropical storm force winds extend outward 105 miles from the center.

More action in the tropics...

2010-09-06T00:44:00.002-04:00

Tropical Depression #10 formed late Sunday evening in the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The system has maximum sustained winds of 30 mph and some strengthening is expected. If it is able to reach tropical storm status, its name would be Hermine. The depression is moving to the north, but is expected to take a left turn and be near the coast of northeastern Mexico early Tuesday morning. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect along the coast of Mexico from Tampico to the mouth of the Rio Grande. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall of 4 to 8 inches over northeastern Mexico into south Texas, with isolated amounts up to 12 inches possible.

Meanwhile, the remnants of Gaston are located about 600 miles east of the Leeward Islands. Upper level winds appear to be conducive for some development and its possible it could regenerate into a tropical depression or tropical storm in the next day or two.

Earl update and the rest of the tropics...

2010-09-03T16:18:00.003-04:00

Earl continues to move away from the Mid-Atlantic coast and toward southeastern New England. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 80 mph, so Earl is now a minimal hurricane and further weakening is forecast. However, the large circulation will continue to impact southern New England through tonight. Storm surge values of 1-2 feet are still expected at the time of high tide in Virginia, potentially causing minor flooding along southern portions of Chesapeake Bay. Significant swells will continue to bring a high risk of rip currents, along with high surf along the Mid-Atlantic coast.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Fiona is weakening (max sustained winds at 45 mph), with the center expected to be near Bermuda early Saturday morning. What was once Gaston is a disorganized area of thunderstorms, but regeneration into a tropical depression is possible over the weekend. And finally, an area of low pressure has developed along yet another tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands. This system has the potential for some development over the weekend as well.

So the tropics remain very busy, which is appropriate since we are now entering the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Late night update on Earl: Passing east of the Outer Banks

2010-09-03T00:41:00.002-04:00

Late night update:

As of midnight, the center of Earl is passing east of the Outer Banks. The storm continues to weaken, with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph. However, it remains a large and dangerous storm, and will batter the Outer Banks during the wee hours of the morning with strong winds and torrential downpours. Gusty, tropical storm force winds are possible at Virginia Beach, with a few bands of showers as well. As the storm pulls away from the coast, conditions will gradually improve later this morning. Earl will then set its sights on southeastern New England, where a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Massachusetts and Rhode Island coastlines.

Flooding remains a concern along the Virginia coast today, as a storm surge of 1-3 feet is possible during high tide along the southern portion of Chesapeake Bay. Minor to moderate flooding is possible and significant swells will bring a high risk of strong rip currents. High surf is expected along the coast, with large battering waves potentially peaking at 15 to 20 feet, which may cause significant beach erosion, particularly from Virginia Beach south.

Earl skirts by the Outer Banks tonight...

2010-09-02T15:58:00.000-04:00

Thursday afternoon update:

Hurricane Earl has weakened slightly this afternoon, as data from the hurricane hunters indicates maximum sustained winds are down to 125 mph. This makes Earl a category three storm, still a major hurricane. It remains a dangerous and large storm. The center is tracking north at 18 mph and should pass east of the Outer Banks of North Carolina later tonight. Earl is expected to continue its right turn to the north-northeast later tonight, as it encounters the mid-latitude westerlies.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect along the North Carolina coast, where the worst is expected tonight. Tropical storm force winds should arrive by evening along the Outer Banks, with hurricane force winds potentially brushing the coast overnight. A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch remain in effect for the Virginia coast northward to New Jersey. Virginia Beach may see some tropical storm force winds overnight, as these winds still extend outward up to 230 miles from the center. The outer rain bands and a storm surge of 1-3 feet remain a threat to the southern portion of Chesapeake Bay, where minor to moderate flooding is possible. Significant swells will bring a high risk of strong rip currents through tomorrow. The combination of the storm surge and high surf (large breaking waves are expected to peak at 14 to 18 feet) may cause significant beach erosion along the coast, particularly from Virginia Beach south.

Earl will then set its sights on southeastern New England, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect along the Massachusetts and Rhode Island coastlines.

Hurricane Earl threatens the Outer Banks, with minimal impacts expected along the Virginia coast…

2010-09-02T00:39:00.008-04:00

Hurricane Earl is a bit stronger as of late Wednesday night, packing maximum sustained winds of 140 mph. This makes Earl a category 4 storm once again. As I mentioned during the afternoon, the expected turn was already showing up and this trend has continued through the night. This increases my confidence that the storm will stay east of the coastline and turn away from the Mid-Atlantic after making its closest approach to Cape Hatteras later this evening. Earl is currently moving to the north-northwest, clearly influenced by a ridge building to its east over the Atlantic. The storm will continue its turn to the north and then northeast, as a strong trough moving across the Great Lakes helps to push it along and increase its forward speed (see the forecast models below). A Hurricane Warning remains in effect along the North Carolina coast, with a Hurricane Watch for the Virginia, Maryland and Delaware coastline. A Hurricane Watch is also in effect up in New England, along the Massachusetts coast, including Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket. Earl is expected to threaten parts of southern New England later Friday.

WHAT TO EXPECT

For Richmond and central Virginia, I do not expect any impact from Earl. However, despite the fact I believe Earl will pass well east of the Virginia coast, Hampton Roads and the Eastern Shore probably won’t escape the rather large circulation of the storm. Hurricane force winds currently extend outward from the center about 90 miles, which won’t be an issue for Virginia Beach if the storm continues on the forecast track. However, tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center 230 miles and may impact the immediate coast later tonight and early Friday morning, along with some of the outer rain bands. Assuming no dramatic change to the track takes place, the only place I see getting potential hurricane force winds is the Outer Banks, particularly the southern portion. So this is likely to be a glancing blow, and hopefully many coastal residents will breathe a sigh of relief as the storm quickly moves northeast Friday morning.

The worst of the storm will hit the Outer Banks later today and tonight. Any impacts for Hampton Roads and the Virginia coast will be later tonight into early Friday morning. The major issue will be the potential for minor to moderate flooding over the Tidewater region, along Chesapeake Bay. Storm surge values are expected to peak at 1.5 to 3 feet during high tide Friday afternoon. Significant swells will bring a high risk of strong rip currents through Friday. The combination of the storm surge and high surf (large breaking waves are expected to peak at 14 to 18 feet) may cause significant beach erosion along the coast, particularly from Virginia Beach south.

Believe it or not, there’s plenty of other action in the tropics (see the satellite imagery below). Tropical Storm Fiona has turned to the northwest, away from the northern Leeward Islands. The environment ahead of the storm is not favorable, and Fiona may very well weaken and dissipate in the wake of Earl. Meanwhile, the newest storm on the map is Gaston. Gaston is out in the eastern Atlantic and is a minimal tropical storm at this time. However, it is quite possible that it strengthens into a hurricane by the weekend. There is some conflicting data regarding Gaston, and we’ll just have to keep a close eye on it for the next several days. Since its track is a bit farther south than Earl or Fiona, it certainly has some potential to be a major player down the road. Stay tuned…

Hurricane Earl update and the rest of the tropics...

2010-09-01T13:20:00.002-04:00

Earl is still a major hurricane (cat 3) with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph. It is over 700 miles from Cape Hatteras and the computer data continues to show a turn, keeping the storm east of the coastline. Signs of the turn are already showing up, and the next 12-24 hours will be critical to determining the exact track. Earl's rather large circulation means at least tropical storm force winds for the Outer Banks up to VA Beach late tomorrow night into very early Friday. A hurricane warning is in effect along the NC coast and a hurricane watch is up for the VA/MD/DE coasts. A few rain bands will likely move into extreme SE VA late tomorrow night. As for Richmond and central VA, we should not feel any effects from Earl.

Fiona may produce tropical storm conditions over the northern Leeward Islands this afternoon, but should then move north over the open waters of the Atlantic and may weaken in the wake of Earl.

A new storm is on the scene today...Tropical Depression #9. This is over the eastern Atlantic and is expected to become a tropical storm very soon. It's name would be Gaston...yes, you heard right...Gaston!

Eye on the Tropics Update

2010-08-30T18:16:00.000-04:00

* Danielle has weakened to a tropical storm over the open waters of the Atlantic

* Earl is now a powerful category 4 hurricane moving away from the Virgin Islands, and will churn up seas along the East Coast this week

* And now we have Fiona, trailing Earl and something to watch over the next several days...

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Until 6 P.M.

2010-08-12T12:02:00.001-04:00

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 6 P.M. for much of central Virginia. This includes the metro Richmond area down to Hampton Roads. Strong thunderstorms will contain dangerous lightning, along with the potential for damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and large hail.

CLICK HERE FOR THE LATEST WARNINGS

TD #5 in the Gulf...

2010-08-11T11:44:00.003-04:00

Tropical Depression #5 is in the Gulf and will be approaching the north central Gulf coast tonight or early tomorrow morning. It is rather disorganized right now, but could become a tropical storm before reaching the coast.

CLICK HERE FOR THE LATEST INFO ON TD#5

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10 P.M.

2010-08-05T17:00:00.002-04:00

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 10 P.M. tonight. Strong storms moving across the region will contain dangerous lightning, along with the possibility for damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and large hail.

CLICK HERE FOR CURRENT WARNINGS

Tropical Depression #4 forms in the Atlantic...

2010-08-02T12:25:00.003-04:00

Tropical Depression #4 has formed in the Atlantic, about 1365 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Maximum sustained winds are 35 mph and the system is moving west-northwest at 17 mph. Strengthening is forecast, and TD#4 could become Tropical Storm Colin later tonight or tomorrow.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 7 P.M.

2010-07-29T12:42:00.001-04:00

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for most of central and eastern Virginia until 7 P.M. Thunderstorms developing across the region this afternoon and evening will contain dangerous lightning, along with the potential for damaging winds up to 70 mph and large hail.

CLICK HERE FOR CURRENT WARNINGS

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 8 P.M. just north and west of Richmond

2010-07-25T14:09:00.005-04:00

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for much of central and northern Virginia until 8 P.M. The watch includes Hanover County and points north and west. Strong storms will cross the region that will produce dangerous lightning, along with the possibility of damaging wind gusts up to 80 mph and large hail.

CLICK HERE FOR CURRENT WARNINGS

Bonnie officially is no longer...

2010-07-24T18:55:00.001-04:00

Tropical Depression Bonnie has weakened further, and is now just a disorganized area of low pressure centered about 100 miles east-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River. The low is expected to dissipate later tonight or tomorrow.

Bonnie fading away...

2010-07-24T14:21:00.004-04:00

Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely hanging in there, as strong shear as taken its toll on the system. There are a few rain bands north of the center on the Gulf coast, but gradual weakening will continue as the center likely reaches the coast later tonight. All tropical storm warnings have been discontinued for the Gulf coast.

Bonnie is weak and disorganized over the eastern Gulf...

2010-07-24T01:11:00.002-04:00

The image above shows that Tropical Depression Bonnie is very weak and disorganized over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. However, a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Destin, FL to Morgan City, LA, including Lake Pontchartrain. The storm is moving rather quickly to the west-northwest, but its forward motion is expected to decrease. It should reach the northern Gulf coast Saturday night or early Sunday. It's possible Bonnie could regain tropical storm status, but all of our computer data suggests if it does, it would likely be a rather weak tropical storm.

CLICK HERE FOR THE LATEST ON BONNIE

Tropical Storm Bonnie Approaching the NW Bahamas...

2010-07-23T01:47:00.002-04:00

TD #3 strengthened into Tropical Storm Bonnie early Thursday evening. As of late night, maximum sustained winds are at 40 mph and some further strengthening is possible over the next 24 hours. The storm is approaching the northwest Bahamas and new warnings have been issued for south Florida. Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect for the central and northwest Bahamas, the east coast of Florida from Deerfield Beach southward including the Florida Keys and Florida Bay and up along the west coast of Florida north to Englewood. The center of Bonnie is expected to pass near or over the Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula during the day and then into the eastern Gulf of Mexico Friday night and Saturday.

CLICK HERE FOR THE LATEST INFO ON BONNIE

Tropical Depression #3 forms in the Bahamas...could become Tropical Storm Bonnie...

2010-07-22T12:11:00.002-04:00

Tropical Depression #3 has formed in the Bahamas. The center is located about 265 miles southeast of Nassau and 405 miles east-southeast of Key Largo, FL. Maximum sustained winds are at 35 mph and the storm is moving west-northwest at about 15 mph. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Florida east coast from Golden Beach southward including the entire Florida Keys and Florida Bay...and for the west coast of Florida north to Bonita Bay. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the east coast of Florida from north of Golden Beach to Jupiter Inlet, including Lake Okeechobee. Rainfall of 2-4 inches is expected across south Florida, with isolated amounts of 5-6 inches.

TD #3 is expected to become a tropical storm, possibly later today. Most of the hurricane models take it through the Florida Straits and Keys and into the Gulf of Mexico. The guidance is in pretty good agreement down the road, and favors a potential landfall along the Louisiana or Texas coast later in the upcoming weekend.

Trouble brewing in the tropics...

2010-07-20T16:18:00.003-04:00

There's some trouble brewing in the tropics. Low pressure is starting to take shape as a strong tropical wave extends from the northern Leeward Islands west to Hispaniola. Many hurricane models strengthen this to at least tropical storm status, while eventually moving it into the eastern and northern Gulf. Stay tuned...

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 8 P.M. west of Richmond

2010-07-20T14:35:00.004-04:00

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 8 P.M. to the west of I-95. This includes Goochland, Powhatan and Amelia counties and all places west out to the West Virginia border. Strong thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and early evening that will contain dangerous lightning, along with the possibility of damaging winds up to 70 mph and large hail.

CLICK HERE FOR THE CURRENT WARNINGS

TD#2 is raining itself out...

2010-07-09T01:30:00.002-04:00

TD#2 made landfall over the extreme south Texas coast Thursday. It never made it to tropical storm status. The storm has produced rain totals of 2-5 inches over south Texas, with an additional 3-6 inches possible.

TD#2 forms in the western Gulf...

2010-07-07T23:21:00.003-04:00

Tropical Depression #2 has formed in the western Gulf of Mexico. It could become Tropical Storm Bonnie before making an expected landfall near the Texas/Mexico border late Thursday afternoon or evening. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect along the Texas coast south of Baffin Bay to the mouth of the Rio Grande...and along the coast of Mexico from Rio San Fernando to the mouth of the Rio Grande. For more details, click on the link below:

INFORMATION ON TD#2

June was the warmest on record in Richmond...

2010-07-01T15:28:00.003-04:00

It's now official, June was the warmest on record in Richmond. The average temperature was 81.1 degrees, which shattered the old record by almost 2 degrees (the previous record was 79.2 degrees, set in 1943). We reached 80 degrees every day of the month, and the only other time that was done was 2008. There were 11 days of 95+ (tied a record set in 1984), 19 days of 90+ (the record is 20 in 1943) and 3 days over 100 (tying a record set in 1952 and 2008).

June is starting on a much "cooler" note, but expect the intense heat to once again build over the upcoming holiday weekend. We could be dealing with triple digits yet again.

Hurricane Alex moving inland over Mexico...

2010-07-01T00:44:00.002-04:00

Hurricane Alex is now inland, moving over northeastern Mexico. It made landfall as a category 2 hurricane, packing maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. Alex is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches over portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas, with isolated amounts up to 20 inches. This could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially over mountainous terrain.

CLICK HERE FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON ALEX

Alex now a hurricane...heading for landfall in Mexico...

2010-06-30T00:25:00.002-04:00

Alex is now a hurricane, packing maximum sustained winds of 75 mph as of late Tuesday night. It is the first June Atlantic hurricane since 1995. The storm is moving to the west-northwest and is on track to make landfall in Mexico late Wednesday night. Alex could strengthen a bit more before landfall...for more on the storm, click on the link below...

LATEST INFO ON ALEX

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 8 P.M. for northern Virginia...

2010-06-28T13:37:00.002-04:00

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 8 P.M. from Charlottesville to Fredericksburg and points north and west. Thunderstorms developing across the region will produce dangerous lightning, along with the possibility of damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and hail.

CLICK HERE FOR CURRENT WARNINGS

Tropical Storm Alex strengthening, expected to become a hurricane...

2010-06-28T13:28:00.003-04:00

Tropical Storm Alex is expected to strengthen to hurricane status by tomorrow. It could potentially become a category 2 storm before its next landfall. A Hurricane Watch has been posted for the coast of Texas south of Baffin Bay to the mouth of the Rio Grande, and for the coast of Mexico from the mouth of the Rio Grande to La Cruz.

GET THE LATEST INFORMATION ON ALEX

Tropical Storm Alex in the Caribbean...

2010-06-26T11:36:00.002-04:00

We now have Tropical Storm Alex in the western Caribbean. The storm is packing maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and is heading toward Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. It is expected to emerge in the southern Gulf of Mexico late Sunday and could then intensify into a hurricane. For more details, click on the link below to the National Hurricane Center...

LATEST INFORMATION ON ALEX

First tropical depression of the season forms in the Caribbean...

2010-06-25T18:02:00.003-04:00

Hurricane hunters investigating the disturbance in the western Caribbean have found a well-defined circulation and based on current data, the National Hurricane Center has begun issuing advisories on Tropical Depression #1. The depression is very close to tropical storm strength and is likely to strengthen before reaching the Yucatan Peninsula, so it will likely become Tropical Storm Alex. After weakening over land, it could regain strength over the southern Gulf of Mexico. For more details, follow this link:
LATEST ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION #1

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10 P.M. for central Virginia...

2010-06-24T15:30:00.005-04:00

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for central Virginia, including metro Richmond, until 10 P.M. Strong thunderstorms are possible that may contain damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and large hail.

CLICK HERE FOR CURRENT WARNINGS

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 8 P.M. for northern Virginia...

2010-06-24T12:44:00.001-04:00

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 8 P.M. for northern Virginia, including a line from Charlottesville to Fredericksburg and points north and west. Thunderstorms developing this afternoon and evening may contain damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, large hail and possibly an isolated tornado or two.

CLICK HERE FOR CURRENT WARNINGS

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9 P.M. for Chesterfield South and East...

2010-06-16T14:43:00.005-04:00

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 9 P.M. for Chesterfield County and points south and east. Thunderstorms developing across the region are expected to produce dangerous lightning, along with the potential for damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and large hail.

CLICK HERE FOR CURRENT WARNINGS

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 8 P.M.

2010-06-12T16:12:00.001-04:00

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for central and eastern Virginia until 8 P.M. Strong thunderstorms moving across the region will produce dangerous lightning, damaging winds up to 70 mph and potentially large hail.

CLICK HERE FOR CURRENT WARNINGS

Tornado Watch until 8 P.M. from Hanover County north and west...

2010-06-06T15:06:00.000-04:00

A Tornado Watch is in effect until 8 P.M. for Hanover County and points north and west. Strong thunderstorms are expected across the region, which may produce dangerous lightning, damaging wind gusts up to 80 mph, large hail and isolated tornadoes.

CLICK HERE FOR CURRENT WARNINGS

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10 P.M. for northern Virginia...

2010-06-04T15:49:00.003-04:00

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 10 P.M. for most of northern Virginia. This includes the Fredericksburg area and points north and west. Thunderstorms developing across the region this afternoon and evening may contain dangerous lightning, damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and large hail.

CLICK HERE FOR CURRENT WARNINGS

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9 P.M. to the north of Richmond

2010-06-03T14:09:00.004-04:00

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 9 P.M. for Hanover County and points north and west. Thunderstorms developing across the region may contain dangerous lightning, along with damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and large hail.

CLICK HERE FOR CURRENT WARNINGS

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9 P.M. for Charlottesville and NW Virginia...

2010-05-28T15:23:00.004-04:00

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 9 P.M. for the Charlottesville area and points north and west. Thunderstorms across the region will produce dangerous lightning, along with potentially damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and large hail.

CLICK HERE FOR CURRENT WARNINGS

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Until 9 P.M. for northern Virginia...

2010-05-27T13:45:00.004-04:00

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 9 P.M. for northern Virginia extending north into New York state. This watch includes the Fredericksburg area and points north and west. Thunderstorms developing this afternoon and evening may contain dangerous lightning, damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and large hail.

CLICK HERE FOR CURRENT WARNINGS

Severe Thunderstorm Watch to the north until 9 P.M.

2010-05-14T14:39:00.002-04:00

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 9 P.M. for northern Virginia, from Charlottesville to Fredericksburg and points north and west. Strong thunderstorms are possible, which may contain damaging winds and hail.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 8 P.M.

2010-05-12T14:31:00.005-04:00

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for all of central Virginia until 8 P.M. Strong thunderstorms moving across the region may produce damaging winds and hail.

CLICK HERE FOR CURRENT WARNINGS

Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Northern Virginia until 11:00 P.M....

2010-04-25T17:19:00.002-04:00

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for northern Virginia until 11:00 P.M. Strong storms developing to our north may produce frequent lightning, damaging winds and hail. A couple of isolated storms may develop in central Virginia this evening as well. The watch area includes the Fredericksburg area and points north and west.

Snow this morning...

2010-02-10T02:10:00.004-05:00

Low pressure developing along the Mid-Atlantic coast early this morning will deepen and move slowly northeast today. Temperatures will be on the way down, and wet roads will turn icy. Snow is likely during the morning, mostly on the lighter side in Metro Richmond, but heavier to the north. Accumulations of 1-2 inches are likely for the metro, but to the north in places like northern Hanover and Caroline, 2-4 inches are possible. A couple of hours of heavier snow are likely up near Fredericksburg over to the Northern Neck, where more significant accumulations will occur. The wind will become the main issue over the region as the storm strengthens, with sustained winds in the Richmond area of 20-30 mph, with gusts over 40 mph. Along the coast of the Northern Neck, the sustained winds could occasionally reach to around 40 mph, with gusts over 50 mph. With heavier snows occurring to the north, considerable blowing and drifting snow will reduce visibilities to near a quarter of a mile at times, and we could be talking about near blizzard-like conditions in the DC and Baltimore metro areas, as well as along the Maryland coast.

The snow will taper off across much of central Virginia around midday or very early afternoon, and the sun will actually make an appearance. However, the high winds will continue to be a problem into the evening. A Wind Advisory is in effect until 9 P.M.

Stay safe!

Yet another winter storm!

2010-02-09T00:45:00.006-05:00

Here we go again! Low pressure will track into the Ohio Valley today, eventually giving way to a new storm that will develop along the Mid-Atlantic coast. While surface temperatures will hold in the low to mid 30s across the region, the track of the initial low will allow somewhat "milder" air to move in aloft. This will cause a mix of precipitation types, with Metro Richmond and areas south and east changing to some rain, while north and west locations stay snow and sleet. Accumulations through this evening will range from slushy/icy spots in the metro to a couple of inches of snow/sleet well north and west of Richmond. As the secondary low takes shape early Wednesday morning, colder air will change any mixed precipitation to snow. This will be a similar situation to what we experienced this past Saturday morning. There could be a few hours of heavy snow early tomorrow, particularly north of Richmond, extending to parts of the Northern Neck. By the time it tapers off by midday or early afternoon, we could see some impressive totals across northern Virginia once again, while the Metro Richmond area will likely see a general snowfall of 1-2 inches, with a few localities seeing as much as 3 or 4 inches just north of the city.

Very early morning update...

2010-02-06T00:28:00.002-05:00

The sloppy mess will be changing back to snow this morning in Metro Richmond and all the way to southeastern Virginia this afternoon. Additional significant accumulations are likely. Wet roads will quickly become icy as north winds lower the temperature, and snow will accumulate on top of the slippery surface. The winds will really kick up, causing blowing and drifting snow. Travel will be very hazardous, so don't go out if you don't have to!

Here's what I expect for snow totals today, for the last part of our latest winter storm:

Metro Richmond southwest to Farmville
3-5 inches

Western Goochland/Hanover
4-6 inches

Central/eastern Northern Neck
4-8 inches

Fredericksburg and upper Northern Neck southwest to Louisa
8-12 inches

Charlottesville/Culpeper/DC
12 inches +

Tri-Cities to Williamsburg
1-3 inches

Extreme southeastern Virginia/Hampton Roads/Emporia
1-2 inches possible later on

Evening update...

2010-02-05T19:20:00.008-05:00

As of early evening, the rain/snow line has inched north of Richmond as expected. There are no real changes to the forecast. The map above shows the accumulation possibilities for what fell today combined with what I expect for tomorrow...so TOTAL accumulation through tomorrow night.

Here's the rundown for overnight and tomorrow by location:

Metro Richmond (city and east) down to southern Chesterfield and east to Urbanna
-- mainly rain during the evening, mixed with sleet overnight and then changing back to snow by sunrise
-- 3 to 5 inches of snow accumulation tomorrow

North and west of Richmond (from Short Pump/Hanover to the Northern Neck/south to Farmville:
-- rain and sleet this evening, mixing with and changing to snow after 3 A.M.
-- 3 to 5 inches of snow tomorrow (4 to 6 inches on the Northern Neck)

Farther north and west (from western Goochland/NW Hanover to the upper Northern Neck)
-- sleet/snow mixed with rain this evening and overnight, changing to back to snow during the wee hours of the morning
-- 3 to 5 inches of snow tomorrow (4 to 8 inches on the Northern Neck and Caroline County)

Fredericksburg southwest to Louisa
-- snow mixing with sleet into the wee hours of the morning, then all snow again before sunrise
-- 8 to 12 inches by 2 or 3 A.M. and another 8 to 12 inches tomorrow, making a total of 16 to 24 inches

Charlottesville up to northwest Virginia/DC/Baltimore
-- mostly snow (some sleet may mix in)...storm totals of 20 to 25 inches +

Well south and east of Richmond (Tri-Cities to Williamsburg)
-- rain tonight, changing to snow in the morning
-- 1 to 3 inches of snow tomorrow (2 to 4 inches from Williamsburg and the Middle Peninsula

Extreme southeastern Virginia/Hampton Roads (and Emporia)

-- heavy rain tonight and tomorrow morning (1 to 3 inches)
-- a change to snow in the afternoon with 1 to 2 inches possible through tomorrow evening
--

Friday afternoon update: What to expect and TOTAL snow/sleet accumulations through Saturday night

2010-02-05T14:23:00.007-05:00

The winter storm is now underway and snow/sleet will continue over much of the region into the early evening. This will be a multi-part storm for the Metro Richmond area and much of the surrounding region. That's because we'll have the accumulating snow and sleet, followed by a change to rain tonight and then back to snow early tomorrow morning, with more significant accumulation possible. So while my earlier map showed potential accumulation for the metro before the changeover, I thought I'd post this one to show the potential TOTALS of snow and sleet for the entire storm. Keep in mind that rain in many places tonight will pack down or even wash away some of the afternoon snow, so the totals will be skewed. This map represents the potential accumulations for today and tomorrow added together. Locations well north and west of Richmond, from Charlottesville to northern Virginia/DC/Baltimore will stay mostly snow with some sleet mixed in, and they will likely need a yardstick to measure 2 feet or more of snow!

Here's the lowdown for what to expect in your neighborhood:

Metro Richmond (city and east) down to southern Chesterfield and east to Urbanna
-- 2 to 4 inches of snow this afternoon
-- changing to rain this evening (some heavy rain possible overnight)
-- back to snow by morning, with 3-5 inches possible tomorrow

North and west of Richmond (from Short Pump/Hanover to the Northern Neck/south to Farmville)
-- 4 to 8 inches of snow possible through this evening
-- mix with and possible brief change to rain tonight
-- back to snow by morning, with 3-5 inches possible tomorrow

Farther north and west (from western Goochland/Hanover up to the upper Northern Neck
-- 8 to 12 inches of snow possible through later tonight
-- sleet and even some rain may mix in tonight, back to snow tomorrow morning
-- 3 to 6 inches of snow possible tomorrow (highest on the Northern Neck)

Fredericksburg southwest to Louisa and Buckingham
-- 8 to 12 inches of snow possible through later tonight
-- mainly snow and sleet overnight, all snow tomorrow
-- an additional 8-12 inches possible through tomorrow

Charlottesville up to northwest VA/DC/Baltimore
-- mostly snow (some sleet may mix in)...20-25 inches + likely

Well south and east of Richmond (Tri-Cities to Williamsburg)
-- 1-2 inches of snow/sleet possible
-- changing to rain this afternoon, some heavy rain possible tonight
-- 1-3 inches of snow possible tomorrow (2-4 inches for Williamsburg/Middle Peninsula)

Extreme southeastern Virginia/Hampton Roads (and Emporia)
-- 1-3 inches of rain
-- changing to snow tomorrow
-- 1-2 inches of snow possible tomorrow afternoon/evening

Early morning update...

2010-02-05T00:55:00.006-05:00

The current forecast is on track for now. It will be interesting to see where the rain/snow transition sets up this afternoon and evening, as that will have a huge impact on accumulation amounts across the metro. While we'll likely see rain tonight from the metro south and east, it should go back to snow by tomorrow morning. The model data shows significant precipitation over us tomorrow, which will be snow...so more significant accumulations are possible. Tomorrow could end up being worse than today for many locations, including the metro. The accumulation map below is for today through this evening for places that will mix and changeover...total storm accumulations for the far northwest. I'll further discuss potential accumulations for tomorrow in a later post. Let's get through today first! Stay tuned!