The Perseids are here!

The annual Perseid meteor shower is always a fun event to check out.  Some folks have already seen these "shooting stars" and the shower peaks early next week.  The moon may get in the way, but if you want to enjoy watching for meteors on warm, summer nights, take a peek over the next week or so late at night.  Here's a link to more information about the "Perseids vs. Moonlight"...enjoy!
http://www.skyandtelescope.com/astronomy-news/observing-news/perseid-meteors-vs-moon-08052014/

Tornado Watch until 10 P.M.

A Tornado Watch is in effect for all of central Virginia until 10 P.M.  A strong cold front moving in from the west will produce thunderstorms that are capable of producing damaging winds, hail and isolated tornadoes.  A Tornado Watch means severe weather is possible in and near the watch area. 

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Quick update on the approaching storm...

My thoughts haven't changed at all regarding the impending storm.  Rain will increase in coverage and intensity across the region tonight.  Tomorrow, the rain will eventually mix with and change to wet snow, although rain could mix in through the afternoon from Metro RIC and points east. 

Accumulation in the Metro will be minimal at best.  With luck, the Metro might get an inch or two, but I wouldn't be surprised to see many places from Metro RIC south without any snow on the ground.  The farther north and west you go, the greater the risk of significant snowfall, particularly north and west of a line from Ashland to central Goochland.  The winners in all this (for snow lovers) will be the favored areas from Charlottesville up through the Shenandoah Valley and north to DC.

Thoughts on the upcoming storm...

The much anticipated storm will be begin exerting its influence on our area later today.  It looks like some rain will move into the area by later in the afternoon and will increase in both coverage and intensity at night.  As much colder air aloft moves into the region, we'll see the rain changing to wet snow during Wednesday morning and midday from west to east.  The snow will have a tough time accumulating due to surface temperatures above freezing and the increasing March sun angle.  While it will snow in Richmond, I'm not confident we'll see much in the way of accumulation.  Besides a northward trend in the model storm tracks, several other things just aren't lining up to make this a significant event in the Metro.  The storm track is certainly critical and the northward trend (coming over south/central VA) means marine air will get drawn in, and areas east of Richmond will likely see more rain mixed in during the afternoon.  We've been focused on the potential for strong "lift" in the atmosphere, but the model data indicates much of this will be earlier Wednesday in the Metro, before it's cold enough to really get any snow going.  Wet bulb temperatures (a parameter often used in situations like this to determine precipitation type in March/April) are hovering above freezing on the model data.  When looking at atmospheric charts at the 850 millibar level (approximately 5000 feet), heavy snow typically falls on the northwest side of the 850 low.  This tracks over us, indicating the greatest chance for significant accumulation will likely be well north and west of Richmond.  Many folks look to the 850 mb temperature and whether it is at or below freezing to determine precipitation type.  This is usually a good indicator, and the 850 mb temperature dips below zero (C) in the Metro during the afternoon, so I definitely think snow will fall.  It's just that accumulation may be hard to come by, especially during the daylight hours, even though it could be a heavy wet snow for a period.

All said and done, there will be a huge difference in snowfall amounts from southern Virginia up through the Shenandoah Valley (where 12"+ are possible).  There may be a very sharp line between virtually no snowfall accumulation and a quite a bit.  While this line has a better chance of shifting north and west, there's always the possibility that things could shift in the other direction.  I just don't think it's likely at this time. 

Below is a map which summarizes my thoughts.  My best bet in Metro Richmond is 1 to as much as 3 inches, with much more north and west.  Southern Virginia could end up losing out entirely...that is, if you are hoping for snow!

New Tornado Watch until 2AM includes Metro Richmond

A new Tornado Watch is in effect farther south through Richmond and the Tri-Cities, effective until 2AM.

Tornado Watch until 2AM north & west of Richmond

A Tornado Watch is in effect until 2AM north & west of Richmond.  This includes Hanover, Goochland, Caroline, Louisa, Charlottesville & Fredericksburg (as well as points north into the DC area).  A line of heavy rain and strong winds will move into the region this evening.  Strong, damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph are possible, along with the possibility for an isolated tornado.

Orionid Meteors This Weekend!

The Orionid meteor shower peaks this weekend.  Check it out early Sunday morning, as skies should be clear!  Here's more from NASA:  http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2012/12oct_orionids/

Tornado Watch until 7 P.M.

A Tornado Watch is in effect for central and eastern Virginia until 7 P.M.  Strong thunderstorms with wind gusts to 70 mph, small hail and isolated tornadoes are possible in the watch area.

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Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10 P.M.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 10 P.M for most of central Virginia.  Strong wind gusts up to 70 mph and hail up to 1" diameter are possible.

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Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 11 P.M. for southeastern Virginia

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for Petersburg, Williamsburg, southside VA and Hampton Roads until 11 P.M.  Strong wind gusts up to 70 mph and large hail to 2" in diameter are possible.

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Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 8 P.M.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for most of central Virginia until 8 P.M.  It includes Metro Richmond, Fredericksburg, Charlottesville, Farmville and the Northern Neck. Strong wind gusts up to 75 mph and large hail to 2" in diameter are possible.

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A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 10 P.M. for the Tri-Cities and all of southside Virginia.  Damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and large hail are the main threats.

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A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 1 AM for all of central and eastern Virginia.  A cluster of strong storms is coming into Virginia will likely affect the area between 10PM and 1AM.  Damaging wind gusts up to 80 mph, large hail and even an isolated tornado or two are possible.

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Excessive Heat Warning in effect until 9PM Saturday...

CLICK HERE FOR DETAILS ON THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 8 P.M. for all of central and eastern Virginia.  Damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and large hail are possible.

CLICK HERE FOR THE LATEST WARNINGS IN VIRGINIA

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 9 P.M. for all of central and eastern Virginia.  Damaging wind gusts up to 65 mph and large hail are possible. 

CLICK HERE FOR THE LATEST WARNINGS IN VIRGINIA

New Tornado Watch until 2AM...

A new tornado watch replaces the old one for central/eastern Virginia until 2AM.  The threat for severe weather continues through this evening...

Tornado Watch until 9PM

A Tornado Watch is in effect until 9PM for all of central and eastern Virginia.  This includes Richmond, Fredericksburg, the Tri-Cities, Williamsburg and Hampton Roads.  Another watch is up from Charlottesville west, so virtually the entire state is under a Tornado Watch until later this evening.  Heavy rain, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, damaging wind gusts, hail and a few tornadoes are possible across the region.

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Super Moon Saturday night!

By now, you may have heard about the Super Moon that we'll be able to see tomorrow (Saturday) night.  The moon makes its closest approach to Earth in its orbit (known as "perigee") at 11:34 EDT, and just one minute later lines up with the Earth and sun to "become brilliantly full" according to NASA.  While it is still over 200,000 miles away, it will appear as much as 14% bigger and 30% brighter than other full moons of 2012.  That's because full moons on the perigee side of the Moon's orbit seem extra big and bright.  The timing is just right.

CLICK HERE FOR VIDEO FROM NASA ABOUT THE SUPER MOON

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9PM south of I-64...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 9PM south of I-64.  Thunderstorms moving across the region through this evening may produce very heavy rain, frequent cloud to ground lightning, damaging wind gusts to 70 mph and hail.

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