Severe weather today?

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Mid-Atlantic in a risk area for severe weather today. The persistent warm, moist southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front will increase the threat for thunderstorms this afternoon. Limited instability may inhibit widespread development, but shear profiles are favorable for supercells to form, with the threat for damaging winds and possibly isolated tornadoes.

A wet start to the weekend...

The weekend will start on a mild but wet note across central Virginia. An approaching cold front will produce gusty south-southwest breezes that will boost temperatures into the upper 70s. However, added moisture will mean numerous showers and potentially a thunderstorm or two. Our computer data is suggesting 1/2" or more of rain is possible this afternoon and evening. As the front exits the coast tonight, high pressure will build over the Mid-Atlantic, bringing sunshine back into the picture tomorrow. Temperatures will be cooler to finish the weekend, averaging in the mid 60s for daytime highs.

As the new week begins, that area of high pressure should stay in control, with more sunshine and afternoon temperatures in the mid 60s Monday. A developing coastal front may bring some showers Tuesday, but drier weather should sneak back into the area Wednesday and Thursday. One of our more reliable computer models suggests the potential for an area of low pressure to ride up along the front, potentially hanging around into Wednesday. So there's the possibility the drier air may be delayed just a bit. The rest of the week should produce seasonal temperatures, which typically average in the 60s during the day and 40s at night.

Weekend weather looks good!

This first weekend of October is shaping up to be a really good one here in central Virginia. A cold front sliding across the region early this morning will keep some clouds around and might even trigger an isolated shower or two, but skies should become mostly sunny this afternoon. The "cooler" and drier air will lag behind the front, and a downslope west to southwest flow will help boost afternoon temperatures into the low 80s.As the cooler air settles in with a big ridge of high pressure, temperatures will lower into the low and mid 50s early Sunday morning, but then rebound during the afternoon into the upper 70s.

High pressure will remain in control on Monday, offering another mostly sunny day. Moisture will return from the south on Tuesday with more clouds and potentially some showers by nightfall. Another front will arrive from the west on Wednesday, keeping the threat for at least a few passing showers. Temperatures mid-week will fluctuate a bit, warming back above 80 on Wednesday, but then cooling down again on Thursday.