A quick weather update...2008 will start on a sunny note, with cold air poised to move into the area on Wednesday. We may see some snow showers or flurries as the core of the cold air mass settles in. The coldest day will probably be Thursday, with afternoon highs in the 30s and overnight lows in the teens to near 20. Moderation will occur over the weekend, and temperatures could soar into the 60s early next week, as an upper level ridge rebuilds over the southeastern U.S.
Best wishes to all for a very happy, healthy and successful 2008! See you in the new year...
Monday, December 31, 2007
Friday, December 28, 2007
Mild start, chilly finish this weekend...
A split-look weekend is on the way, with temperatures likely reaching the lower 60s on Saturday, but cooling to the low and mid 40s on Sunday. A cold front will slide through central Virginia, settling to the south and east of the Metro Richmond area later Saturday night. Low pressure will ride northeast along the front Sunday, producing another round of rain from Sunday afternoon through very early Monday morning. Locations to the north, from D.C. to Philadelphia, may see some snow due to somewhat colder air in place. That all depends on the exact storm track.
Finishing 2007 and starting 2008...
The year will end on a somewhat "mild" note on Monday, with temperatures in the 50s under partly sunny skies. However, colder air will gradually build into the Mid-Atlantic by the middle of the week, so it will get progressively colder during the start of 2008. New Year's Eve should be dry, with temperatures at midnight probably in the upper 30s, so plan to dress appropriately if you're heading out.
Flurries mid-week?
As the colder air settles in from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, some upper level energy moving over the region Wednesday may trigger some snow flurries. More substanial snow showers are possible in the mountains to the west. The coldest day will likely be Thursday, when afternoon temperatures may not get out of the 30s. Morning lows will average in the lower 20s in the city, with teens in rural communities.
Looking beyond...
An upper ridge is likely to build back east by the weekend of January 5/6, quickly easing the chill and moderating our temperatures. Our longer range computer models don't show our next weather-maker affecting us until at least Monday the 7th or Tuesday the 8th. By that time, it should be quite mild, so don't expect any snow possibilities. In fact, remember that my Winter Outlook calls for a mild January (with an interlude of cold air mid-month), so this might just a sign of the developing pattern for the following week or two.
Finishing 2007 and starting 2008...
The year will end on a somewhat "mild" note on Monday, with temperatures in the 50s under partly sunny skies. However, colder air will gradually build into the Mid-Atlantic by the middle of the week, so it will get progressively colder during the start of 2008. New Year's Eve should be dry, with temperatures at midnight probably in the upper 30s, so plan to dress appropriately if you're heading out.
Flurries mid-week?
As the colder air settles in from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, some upper level energy moving over the region Wednesday may trigger some snow flurries. More substanial snow showers are possible in the mountains to the west. The coldest day will likely be Thursday, when afternoon temperatures may not get out of the 30s. Morning lows will average in the lower 20s in the city, with teens in rural communities.
Looking beyond...
An upper ridge is likely to build back east by the weekend of January 5/6, quickly easing the chill and moderating our temperatures. Our longer range computer models don't show our next weather-maker affecting us until at least Monday the 7th or Tuesday the 8th. By that time, it should be quite mild, so don't expect any snow possibilities. In fact, remember that my Winter Outlook calls for a mild January (with an interlude of cold air mid-month), so this might just a sign of the developing pattern for the following week or two.
Friday, December 21, 2007
A milder weekend, then cooler for Christmas...
The weekend looks like a rather cloudy one, but it will be turning milder...especially on Sunday. A cold front approaching from the west will be the next main weather-maker, producing showers to finish the weekend. Ahead of the front, temperatures could jump above 60. Then cooler air heads into the Mid-Atlantic, arriving in time for Christmas Eve.
The storm for Christmas is off...
The potential storm that was showing up on various models has undergone some changes on the data over the last few runs. It still appears an area of low pressure will develop along the coast late Tuesday into early Wednesday, but move quickly out to sea...with its only impact being felt in extreme eastern North Carolina and possibly the tip of southeastern Virginia. So Metro Richmond and all of central Virginia should enjoy sunshine for the holiday, with temperatures mainly in the 40s.
Unsettled weather later next week, but when exactly?
All indications are there will be some unsettled weather later in the week, but exactly when is still in question. The computer models are having a hard time ejecting energy out of an upper level trough in the Southwest and the timing is key. The GFS (American) model threatens our area with rain on Thursday, with a second wave getting suppressed to our south...followed by a more significant system on Sunday 12/30. The European model holds off most of the deep moisture until Friday, with another wave coming in Saturday afternoon. It certainly appears that moisture may come in several waves and based on the upper level pattern, I wouldn't be surprised to see some arrive late Wednesday into Thursday. That may be followed by a break, with another shot at precipitation over the weekend.
How does the New Year come in?
Again, there is some disagreement amongst the longer range models, with the GFS briefly bringing in some cooler air to finish 2007, then warming us up on the 1st. The European is much milder the last couple of days of the year, and agrees with building the ridge over the Southeast to keep us rather warm to wring in the new year. We shall see...
The storm for Christmas is off...
The potential storm that was showing up on various models has undergone some changes on the data over the last few runs. It still appears an area of low pressure will develop along the coast late Tuesday into early Wednesday, but move quickly out to sea...with its only impact being felt in extreme eastern North Carolina and possibly the tip of southeastern Virginia. So Metro Richmond and all of central Virginia should enjoy sunshine for the holiday, with temperatures mainly in the 40s.
Unsettled weather later next week, but when exactly?
All indications are there will be some unsettled weather later in the week, but exactly when is still in question. The computer models are having a hard time ejecting energy out of an upper level trough in the Southwest and the timing is key. The GFS (American) model threatens our area with rain on Thursday, with a second wave getting suppressed to our south...followed by a more significant system on Sunday 12/30. The European model holds off most of the deep moisture until Friday, with another wave coming in Saturday afternoon. It certainly appears that moisture may come in several waves and based on the upper level pattern, I wouldn't be surprised to see some arrive late Wednesday into Thursday. That may be followed by a break, with another shot at precipitation over the weekend.
How does the New Year come in?
Again, there is some disagreement amongst the longer range models, with the GFS briefly bringing in some cooler air to finish 2007, then warming us up on the 1st. The European is much milder the last couple of days of the year, and agrees with building the ridge over the Southeast to keep us rather warm to wring in the new year. We shall see...
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
Cool and dry...
Tuesday ended up being quite chilly over central Virginia, as the high at Richmond International was only 42 and the low was 20! More cool, dry weather is expected in a rather quiet weather pattern the next couple of days. Temperatures will moderate to just above 50 degrees on Wednesday, with quite a few clouds around. A cold front will slide through the state at night, swinging the wind around to the north on Thursday.
Any rain Friday through the weekend?...
Originally we thought a storm may impact the area for the end of the work week, but the latest model data continues the trend of pushing the storm well south of us, therefore bringing no precipitation. Over the weekend, temperatures will be on the rise, well into the 50s. The next storm will head through the Great Lakes, way to our north and west...but swing a cold front through the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. This will bring our next chances for rain. I don't think it will be the soaking we saw this past weekend, as the storm track is much different and very far to our north and west. However, numerous showers are likely Sunday afternoon and night.
The Christmas outlook and beyond...
It looks like Christmas 2007 will be a cold one...but dry. High pressure should dominate the region for the holiday, with a very cold air mass settling along the East Coast. It won't stick around all that long though. All signs point to a change in the pattern to finish the month, bringing much milder air to Virginia.
Any rain Friday through the weekend?...
Originally we thought a storm may impact the area for the end of the work week, but the latest model data continues the trend of pushing the storm well south of us, therefore bringing no precipitation. Over the weekend, temperatures will be on the rise, well into the 50s. The next storm will head through the Great Lakes, way to our north and west...but swing a cold front through the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. This will bring our next chances for rain. I don't think it will be the soaking we saw this past weekend, as the storm track is much different and very far to our north and west. However, numerous showers are likely Sunday afternoon and night.
The Christmas outlook and beyond...
It looks like Christmas 2007 will be a cold one...but dry. High pressure should dominate the region for the holiday, with a very cold air mass settling along the East Coast. It won't stick around all that long though. All signs point to a change in the pattern to finish the month, bringing much milder air to Virginia.
Saturday, December 15, 2007
Saturday afternoon update...
The storm is right on target. Low pressure over northern Arkansas will move quickly northeast, with a secondary low developing just inland over NC & VA later tonight. The two will merge into a strong storm over New England on Sunday.
Those wishing for a snowstorm are out of luck. High pressure located over northern NY and southern Ontario, Canada is strong enough, but not in a good position for snow here. An onshore flow will flood the area with milder air tonight, meaning RAIN for Richmond and much of the region. The only places that will see some winter precipitation are the favored spots well north and west of Richmond up into the mountains. Here's more on what to expect:
Metro Richmond and all points south and east: A light rain developing between 4 P.M. and 7 P.M., becoming steadier and heavier overnight
Louisa/Caroline north and west to Fredericksburg and Charlottesville: A mix of sleet and rain, some icy accumulation possible before a changeover to rain
Farther north and west, Harrisonburg, Staunton and the I-81 corridor: A mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain, at the start, then becoming primarily liquid (rain/freezing rain, depending on surface temperatures)...some ice accumulation likely
As the storm departs the area Sunday, the wind will really pick up and skies will begin to clear as substanial drying takes place. Winds in the Richmond area will average between 20 and 25 mph, with gusts over 30 mph at times. Wind gusts along the coast are likely to reach 45-50 mph.
Those wishing for a snowstorm are out of luck. High pressure located over northern NY and southern Ontario, Canada is strong enough, but not in a good position for snow here. An onshore flow will flood the area with milder air tonight, meaning RAIN for Richmond and much of the region. The only places that will see some winter precipitation are the favored spots well north and west of Richmond up into the mountains. Here's more on what to expect:
Metro Richmond and all points south and east: A light rain developing between 4 P.M. and 7 P.M., becoming steadier and heavier overnight
Louisa/Caroline north and west to Fredericksburg and Charlottesville: A mix of sleet and rain, some icy accumulation possible before a changeover to rain
Farther north and west, Harrisonburg, Staunton and the I-81 corridor: A mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain, at the start, then becoming primarily liquid (rain/freezing rain, depending on surface temperatures)...some ice accumulation likely
As the storm departs the area Sunday, the wind will really pick up and skies will begin to clear as substanial drying takes place. Winds in the Richmond area will average between 20 and 25 mph, with gusts over 30 mph at times. Wind gusts along the coast are likely to reach 45-50 mph.
Friday, December 14, 2007
Weekend storm brings good rain to Richmond, winter weather in the mountains and up north...
Here's the Friday evening update: The weekend storm remains on target. High pressure will build to our north tonight and tomorrow. While it is a pretty strong high, it will be a bit too far north to keep cold air funneling into Virginia, which we would need for a decent winter storm. An onshore flow will quickly bring milder air into the mix, and we expect a RAIN event for Richmond and much of Central Virginia. However, the colder air will hold tight a bit longer over higher elevations to the north and west, as well as north of Fredericksburg up to DC...so some winter precipitation is likely. Here's the breakdown:
Metro Richmond and all points south and east: Rain (with some ice pellets possibly mixed in at the start)
Louisa/Caroline north and west to Fredericksburg and Charlottesville: A mix of sleet and rain, some icy accumulation possible before a changeover to rain
Farther north and west, Harrisonburg, Staunton and the I-81 corridor: A mix of snow, sleet and rain, with some accumulation...eventually temps will rise enough that there could be a change to rain
For those travelling north this weekend, be aware that this will be a big storm for the Northeast. The storm track will likely bring mild air pretty far inland, meaning coastal areas will see a lot of rain. But west of the I-95 corridor, there could be some good snows, from PA north to New England.
Metro Richmond and all points south and east: Rain (with some ice pellets possibly mixed in at the start)
Louisa/Caroline north and west to Fredericksburg and Charlottesville: A mix of sleet and rain, some icy accumulation possible before a changeover to rain
Farther north and west, Harrisonburg, Staunton and the I-81 corridor: A mix of snow, sleet and rain, with some accumulation...eventually temps will rise enough that there could be a change to rain
For those travelling north this weekend, be aware that this will be a big storm for the Northeast. The storm track will likely bring mild air pretty far inland, meaning coastal areas will see a lot of rain. But west of the I-95 corridor, there could be some good snows, from PA north to New England.
Thursday, December 13, 2007
Thursday evening update on the weekend storm...
After looking at the latest model suite, I don't have any different thoughts on the weekend storm. Those hoping for winter precipitation will be quite disappointed in Central Virginia. This is a rainmaker for us, not snow. That being said, there may be some sleet mixed in at the very start Saturday afternoon, especially north and west of Richmond. However, warmer air will overtake the region, leading to some significant rain Saturday night. The models still have good consensus on the storm track up until the transfer of energy to near the coast. What happens after that plays a big role in whether the folks up north get significant snow. It still appears possible for a big snow inland from PA up through New England.
Reasons for rain as opposed to winter weather...
There are a few big factors working against us here. I'd like to see a stronger area of high pressure area to our north and its location is just too far north for us...a different story for New England. A few things some forecasters tend to forget when faced with a situation like this...it's still early in the season and climatology just doesn't favor a good snow this far south. That doesn't mean it can't happen, but things would be different under the same circumstances if this was January or February. Also, the water temperatures are still a bit on the high side, so any fetch off the water will fill the atmosphere with milder air. One last thing, the storm track really needs to be to our south, with significant development occurring to the south and east. The current forecast allows much milder air to invade the region. Then once the storm really takes shape along the coast, it's too far north for winter weather here. That's why the folks up north will be watching this situation very closely.
Beyond the storm...
After the storm departs, high winds will usher in very cold air Sunday afternoon despite a return to sunshine. The chilly air will stick around early next week, with some moderation by Wednesday. The next potential storm could affect the area by next weekend. Stay tuned...
Reasons for rain as opposed to winter weather...
There are a few big factors working against us here. I'd like to see a stronger area of high pressure area to our north and its location is just too far north for us...a different story for New England. A few things some forecasters tend to forget when faced with a situation like this...it's still early in the season and climatology just doesn't favor a good snow this far south. That doesn't mean it can't happen, but things would be different under the same circumstances if this was January or February. Also, the water temperatures are still a bit on the high side, so any fetch off the water will fill the atmosphere with milder air. One last thing, the storm track really needs to be to our south, with significant development occurring to the south and east. The current forecast allows much milder air to invade the region. Then once the storm really takes shape along the coast, it's too far north for winter weather here. That's why the folks up north will be watching this situation very closely.
Beyond the storm...
After the storm departs, high winds will usher in very cold air Sunday afternoon despite a return to sunshine. The chilly air will stick around early next week, with some moderation by Wednesday. The next potential storm could affect the area by next weekend. Stay tuned...
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Weekend storm will bring rain, not snow
** Richmond set another record high Wednesday afternoon, with a high of 77 degrees! **
The new model data today is in very good agreement regarding the weekend storm, at least here in Virginia. There are some questions as to rain vs. snow up north from PA to New England, but here we'll be dealing with rain later Saturday into early Sunday morning.
Storm #1 Thursday...
A smaller storm will affect the area Thursday, moving along a cold front sliding through the Mid-Atlantic. This will bring a bit of rain, and be followed by a pleasant day on Friday (with temperatures a bit above average). Then the fun begins...
Weekend storm update...
I still feel strongly about the weekend storm. The track is NOT favorable for any winter precip. in our area. There may be some snow mixed in up in the mountains, but that's probably it. Warmer air should surge into the region on an east-southeast flow, especially a few thousand feet above the surface. That will guarantee wet weather for us. The various models are coming into good agreement with the storm track:
EUROPEAN: Northern Louisiana Saturday morning through the Ohio Valley, then splitting energy and giving way to a new low over Central and Eastern Virginia Sunday morning, which then moves up to Northern Maine early Monday morning.
GFS (Global Forecast System--American): Northern Mississippi early Saturday morning transferring energy to the coast Saturday night, with the new low over Long Island Sunday morning.
UK: Northern Mississippi early Saturday morning...then splitting energy over the mountains late Saturday night, with a new low off the Virginia coast Sunday morning.
That's a taste of what the model data has shown today. The big questions are up in New England, as right now there will likely be enough warm air along the coast to bring mostly liquid precipitation, but it is too early to tell how far inland the warmer air will get, meaning there is the potential for decent snows from this storm up north.
The longer term...
Very cold air will move in behind the storm and stay with us early next week. Any system mid-week would be very weak and the model data is not impressive at all. So next week looks pretty quiet.
White Christmas?...
Of course I've already been asked about a white Christmas. The odds here are so low to begin with and the long range data doesn't offer any hope. Right now, upon first glimpse...we may be relatively mild the last week in December. Right now, the GFS has a storm affecting the East Coast on Christmas...but it's a rainmaker...and it's too far in the future to be relied on anyway. Stay tuned...
The new model data today is in very good agreement regarding the weekend storm, at least here in Virginia. There are some questions as to rain vs. snow up north from PA to New England, but here we'll be dealing with rain later Saturday into early Sunday morning.
Storm #1 Thursday...
A smaller storm will affect the area Thursday, moving along a cold front sliding through the Mid-Atlantic. This will bring a bit of rain, and be followed by a pleasant day on Friday (with temperatures a bit above average). Then the fun begins...
Weekend storm update...
I still feel strongly about the weekend storm. The track is NOT favorable for any winter precip. in our area. There may be some snow mixed in up in the mountains, but that's probably it. Warmer air should surge into the region on an east-southeast flow, especially a few thousand feet above the surface. That will guarantee wet weather for us. The various models are coming into good agreement with the storm track:
EUROPEAN: Northern Louisiana Saturday morning through the Ohio Valley, then splitting energy and giving way to a new low over Central and Eastern Virginia Sunday morning, which then moves up to Northern Maine early Monday morning.
GFS (Global Forecast System--American): Northern Mississippi early Saturday morning transferring energy to the coast Saturday night, with the new low over Long Island Sunday morning.
UK: Northern Mississippi early Saturday morning...then splitting energy over the mountains late Saturday night, with a new low off the Virginia coast Sunday morning.
That's a taste of what the model data has shown today. The big questions are up in New England, as right now there will likely be enough warm air along the coast to bring mostly liquid precipitation, but it is too early to tell how far inland the warmer air will get, meaning there is the potential for decent snows from this storm up north.
The longer term...
Very cold air will move in behind the storm and stay with us early next week. Any system mid-week would be very weak and the model data is not impressive at all. So next week looks pretty quiet.
White Christmas?...
Of course I've already been asked about a white Christmas. The odds here are so low to begin with and the long range data doesn't offer any hope. Right now, upon first glimpse...we may be relatively mild the last week in December. Right now, the GFS has a storm affecting the East Coast on Christmas...but it's a rainmaker...and it's too far in the future to be relied on anyway. Stay tuned...
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
Weekend storm coming!
Our weather will be changing rather quickly over the next couple of days, with a big storm projected to affect the region over the weekend. We'll start with possible record warmth again tomorrow, as temperatures soar into the mid 70s (the record high at RIC Airport is 76 degrees, set in 1931). A cold front will then slide through the area by evening. This will cool us off quite a bit on Thursday, and an area of low pressure moving along the front will bring some rain.
The storm comes in Saturday...
Friday looks like a pleasant mid-December day, but then the clouds will increase and thicken on Saturday as a significant storm moves into the Mid-Atlantic. High pressure will slide off the New England coast allowing an east-southeast flow to scour out any substanial cold air. The most likely track of the storm is from the lower Mississippi Valley Saturday morning to the Commonwealth by Sunday morning. The current forecast track is also not favorable for winter precipitation in the Metro Richmond area, so snow lovers should not get excited. In fact, the storm could draw much warmer air aloft well west of the metro, although I think the mountains will probably get some snow. Of course, we're still a couple of days away, so stay tuned for any updates. It's possible the storm track could shift farther north and west, as that certainly has been the trend on the GFS (American) model the last couple of days.
Looking ahead to next week...
A surge of very chilly air will head into town early next week. Some questions arise in the middle of the week, as the European model has a small storm tracking through the region with enough cold air building in from the north to possibly bring some winter precipitation. The GFS, however, is much different. It's still way too early to speculate, and there's just not enough evidence to be concerned at this point. More to come in the next few days...
The storm comes in Saturday...
Friday looks like a pleasant mid-December day, but then the clouds will increase and thicken on Saturday as a significant storm moves into the Mid-Atlantic. High pressure will slide off the New England coast allowing an east-southeast flow to scour out any substanial cold air. The most likely track of the storm is from the lower Mississippi Valley Saturday morning to the Commonwealth by Sunday morning. The current forecast track is also not favorable for winter precipitation in the Metro Richmond area, so snow lovers should not get excited. In fact, the storm could draw much warmer air aloft well west of the metro, although I think the mountains will probably get some snow. Of course, we're still a couple of days away, so stay tuned for any updates. It's possible the storm track could shift farther north and west, as that certainly has been the trend on the GFS (American) model the last couple of days.
Looking ahead to next week...
A surge of very chilly air will head into town early next week. Some questions arise in the middle of the week, as the European model has a small storm tracking through the region with enough cold air building in from the north to possibly bring some winter precipitation. The GFS, however, is much different. It's still way too early to speculate, and there's just not enough evidence to be concerned at this point. More to come in the next few days...
Wednesday, December 5, 2007
The first snow of the season...
The first snow of the season materialized across Central and Northern Virginia earlier today. The Metro Richmond area saw a dusting in places, with no accumulation to the south and more to the north. Some tallies included 1 inch in Harrisonburg and Lovingston (Nelson Co.), a little over 2 inches in Madison and Page Counties, to up to 4 inches in Fairfax and Arlington Counties up near D.C. Any flurries will quickly taper off, but the chill will remain the next couple of days. Temperatures will be well below average Thursday, near 40 degrees...then rise to near 50 on Friday.
The warm-up begins this weekend...
As warmer air surges north toward us, we'll be dealing with more clouds Friday and Saturday, and possibly a few showers (mainly to the west of the Metro Richmond area). Temperatures will be on the rise, and we should see readings surpass 60 degrees on Sunday.
Very warm at least half of next week...
We could flirt with record highs Monday and Tuesday, with readings at least close to 70 degrees. A cold front will lurk to the northwest and the amount of cloud cover will determine how high we get on the thermometer. This front probably won't sink through Central Virginia until at least Wednesday. It should bring some showers, followed by cooler air next Thursday and Friday (daytime temps in the low 50s).
For the record...
Record highs at RIC early next week include:
Monday 12/10 75 degrees, set in 1966
Tuesday 12/11 72 degrees, set in 1971
Wednesday 12/12 76 degrees, set in 1931
My 7th Annual Winter Outlook IS coming...
This looks to be a winter dominated by La Nina, which could provide some very mild weather in January...but don't count out snow chances. My winter outlook will be posted on my main web page, http://www.mike-goldberg.com/, later Friday. I also provide regular forecast updates on the page, so check it out.
The warm-up begins this weekend...
As warmer air surges north toward us, we'll be dealing with more clouds Friday and Saturday, and possibly a few showers (mainly to the west of the Metro Richmond area). Temperatures will be on the rise, and we should see readings surpass 60 degrees on Sunday.
Very warm at least half of next week...
We could flirt with record highs Monday and Tuesday, with readings at least close to 70 degrees. A cold front will lurk to the northwest and the amount of cloud cover will determine how high we get on the thermometer. This front probably won't sink through Central Virginia until at least Wednesday. It should bring some showers, followed by cooler air next Thursday and Friday (daytime temps in the low 50s).
For the record...
Record highs at RIC early next week include:
Monday 12/10 75 degrees, set in 1966
Tuesday 12/11 72 degrees, set in 1971
Wednesday 12/12 76 degrees, set in 1931
My 7th Annual Winter Outlook IS coming...
This looks to be a winter dominated by La Nina, which could provide some very mild weather in January...but don't count out snow chances. My winter outlook will be posted on my main web page, http://www.mike-goldberg.com/, later Friday. I also provide regular forecast updates on the page, so check it out.
Tuesday, December 4, 2007
A few flakes on the way for some...
This evening's update doesn't really have any new information. The forecast is pretty much on track. The air over us is very dry and it will take some time to moisten up as a fast moving Alberta Clipper approaches the area. I expect the clouds to roll in and thicken up overnight. Some snow flurries or showers are possible to the northwest of Richmond by morning. As the system tracks across the Commonwealth, I expect a mix of rain and snow showers, as our low level temperatures will warm up during the daylight hours. So while we may see the first flakes of the season, it won't be a big deal. As I've been saying all along, systems like these don't usually produce much precipitation anyway. Temperatures will be on the chilly side through Thursday, making it "feel" like winter.
The weekend...
An upper level ridge will build over the area this weekend, so our temperatures will be on the way up. The warming trend will begin on Friday, with readings in the 50s. By Sunday, we should be into the 60s and I wouldn't rule out a run at 70 degrees early next week.
Next week...
A cold front will lurk to the northwest on Monday and then begin moving through the area on Tuesday. This will bring some showers, followed by cooler weather for the middle of the week. Another front will likely move through the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday, as a rather fast zonal flow sets up. This will keep the coldest air to our north, with relatively mild conditions for December through at least the weekend of the 15th and 16th, if not beyond.
My forecast can be found at www.mike-goldberg.com.
The weekend...
An upper level ridge will build over the area this weekend, so our temperatures will be on the way up. The warming trend will begin on Friday, with readings in the 50s. By Sunday, we should be into the 60s and I wouldn't rule out a run at 70 degrees early next week.
Next week...
A cold front will lurk to the northwest on Monday and then begin moving through the area on Tuesday. This will bring some showers, followed by cooler weather for the middle of the week. Another front will likely move through the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday, as a rather fast zonal flow sets up. This will keep the coldest air to our north, with relatively mild conditions for December through at least the weekend of the 15th and 16th, if not beyond.
My forecast can be found at www.mike-goldberg.com.
Monday, December 3, 2007
Cool weather the next few days and will there be snow?
It looks like temperatures the next couple of days will be near or below seasonal averages. The breeze will stay up on Tuesday, with temperatures nearing 50 degrees during the afternoon. All attention is on the Alberta Clipper that will zip across the region on Wednesday. Moisture in advance of this system will run into dry air east of the Blue Ridge, but may still be able to produce snow showers Wednesday morning, especially along and north of I-64. Systems like this often don't produce a lot of precipitation, and this one won't be an exception. In fact, little if any precipitation is likely south of the Metro Richmond area. While we may see some of the first snowflakes of the season early on, the lower levels of the atmosphere will be warming during the daylight hours and any flakes may turn to raindrops. So snow lovers shouldn't get too excited.
The end of the week into the weekend...
Temperatures behind this system will stay in the chilly 40s on Friday, but we'll be warming up by the weekend as an upper ridge builds over the Southeast. This will probably help to boost temperatures into the 60s Sunday and Monday.
Looking ahead to next week...
The building upper ridge will lead to several days of very mild weather. An approaching front from the west will slow down, but eventually reach the Commonwealth Tuesday or Wednesday. This front will hopefully bring some rain to the area, followed by a little cooler air. However, our longer range model data shows the upper flow rather zonal (west to east), meaning temperatures will likely stay at or above average through at least the following weekend (Dec.15-16).
My forecast can be found at www.mike-goldberg.com
The end of the week into the weekend...
Temperatures behind this system will stay in the chilly 40s on Friday, but we'll be warming up by the weekend as an upper ridge builds over the Southeast. This will probably help to boost temperatures into the 60s Sunday and Monday.
Looking ahead to next week...
The building upper ridge will lead to several days of very mild weather. An approaching front from the west will slow down, but eventually reach the Commonwealth Tuesday or Wednesday. This front will hopefully bring some rain to the area, followed by a little cooler air. However, our longer range model data shows the upper flow rather zonal (west to east), meaning temperatures will likely stay at or above average through at least the following weekend (Dec.15-16).
My forecast can be found at www.mike-goldberg.com
Update on the possibility of snow this week...
A quick update from the late night model runs...and there's not much change. An Alberta Clipper will likely zip across the area on Wednesday. It probably won't produce much precipitation, but we could see some of the first snow of the season. It appears precipitation could start in the morning and be in the form of light snow. We'd like see it mix with rain at least south and east of Richmond. Again, this doesn't look like a significant precipitation producer, but certainly an interesting system to watch so early in the season.
The complete forecast is on my main web site and my winter outlook is coming there later this week, so bookmark it now!
The complete forecast is on my main web site and my winter outlook is coming there later this week, so bookmark it now!
Saturday, December 1, 2007
Snow coming this week?
Sunday afternoon update (12/2)...no significant changes in computer data at this time. There is some divergence amongst the model suite, but that is to be expected with a system like this early in the season. I still believe there's the potential for a bit of snow to fall over parts of Central Virginia on Wednesday. Of course the ground is relatively warm, so don't expect much to stick. Stay tuned...the forecast is on my main site...
A quick update...Saturday afternoon model runs continue to advertise an Alberta Clipper impacting the area Wednesday afternoon and night. Critical values remain crucial to any possibility of snow vs. rain. Significant precipitation with this type of system at this time of the year is somewhat unusual, but it appears we have a shot at seeing some snow, at least across parts of Central Virginia. Get the complete forecast and my soon to be issued winter outlook on my main web site at mike-goldberg.com and stay tuned for further updates...
A quick update...Saturday afternoon model runs continue to advertise an Alberta Clipper impacting the area Wednesday afternoon and night. Critical values remain crucial to any possibility of snow vs. rain. Significant precipitation with this type of system at this time of the year is somewhat unusual, but it appears we have a shot at seeing some snow, at least across parts of Central Virginia. Get the complete forecast and my soon to be issued winter outlook on my main web site at mike-goldberg.com and stay tuned for further updates...
Winter Outlook
It's coming...
My 7th Annual Winter Outlook is coming this week. It will be posted on my main web site: mike-goldberg.com, so bookmark it and check back. It's the only place you'll be able to find it.
A chilly weekend...
Temperatures this weekend will come in a bit below average for this time of the year. We'll have a decent amount of sunshine today (Saturday), but the clouds will dominate on Sunday. A storm tracking north through the Great Lakes will throw a cold front into the Mid-Atlantic late Sunday night and early Monday morning. This will bring us a little bit of rain.
A cold blast arrives...
What will likely be the coldest air of the season will rush into the region Monday night and Tuesday. Look for high temperatures mid-week to be in the 40s, and overnight lows in the 20s. An intriguing feature on our computer data is a fast-moving Alberta Clipper that could impact the area Wednesday and Wednesday night. If we get some precipitation from this system, it might be cold enough at critical levels for the first snowflakes of the season. It's a little early to speculate, so we'll have to see how future model runs handle the situation. Stay tuned...
My 7th Annual Winter Outlook is coming this week. It will be posted on my main web site: mike-goldberg.com, so bookmark it and check back. It's the only place you'll be able to find it.
A chilly weekend...
Temperatures this weekend will come in a bit below average for this time of the year. We'll have a decent amount of sunshine today (Saturday), but the clouds will dominate on Sunday. A storm tracking north through the Great Lakes will throw a cold front into the Mid-Atlantic late Sunday night and early Monday morning. This will bring us a little bit of rain.
A cold blast arrives...
What will likely be the coldest air of the season will rush into the region Monday night and Tuesday. Look for high temperatures mid-week to be in the 40s, and overnight lows in the 20s. An intriguing feature on our computer data is a fast-moving Alberta Clipper that could impact the area Wednesday and Wednesday night. If we get some precipitation from this system, it might be cold enough at critical levels for the first snowflakes of the season. It's a little early to speculate, so we'll have to see how future model runs handle the situation. Stay tuned...
Thursday, November 29, 2007
More surges of cold air over the next several days...
Could winter be in the air early next week? Many of you have been asking about my winter outlook. Due to personal reasons, it's been delayed but you'll be able to find it on my web site in the next week or so. Either bookmark the site, or you can e-mail me at mikegoldberg2@gmail.com. More discussions of weather patterns will continue here on this blog.
The upcoming weekend...
More cool air is on tap for the upcoming weekend. I expect plenty of sunshine to start, with clouds increasing by Sunday. The next storm will head north into the Great Lakes, but its trailing cold front will likely produce a bit of rain here Sunday night.
A real cold blast on the way...
Behind this front, the coldest air of the season will settle over the Mid-Atlantic Monday night and Tuesday. Daytime highs will be in the 40s Tuesday and Wednesday, with overnight lows in the 20s.
More precipitation chances?
Our chances for precipitation are getting better, as we see a few systems impacting the area in the longer term. The next front will bring some rain Thursday into Friday (Dec. 6-7), with another potential system arriving later the following weekend (Dec. 9-10). Definitely some things to watch for, so stay tuned...
The upcoming weekend...
More cool air is on tap for the upcoming weekend. I expect plenty of sunshine to start, with clouds increasing by Sunday. The next storm will head north into the Great Lakes, but its trailing cold front will likely produce a bit of rain here Sunday night.
A real cold blast on the way...
Behind this front, the coldest air of the season will settle over the Mid-Atlantic Monday night and Tuesday. Daytime highs will be in the 40s Tuesday and Wednesday, with overnight lows in the 20s.
More precipitation chances?
Our chances for precipitation are getting better, as we see a few systems impacting the area in the longer term. The next front will bring some rain Thursday into Friday (Dec. 6-7), with another potential system arriving later the following weekend (Dec. 9-10). Definitely some things to watch for, so stay tuned...
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
Quick temperature changes coming...
My apologies for the lack of a post the last couple of weeks. Many of you know the unfortunate news of personal note. I expect to get back to blogging and my winter outlook will be coming soon, so make sure you bookmark this page and come back. OK, now on to the coming weather...
Temperatures will be going up and down the next several days, with the next cold front scheduled to arrive on Thursday. After a brief cool down on Wednesday, we'll jump back into the 60s ahead of the front on Thursday. This front probably won't produce much if any rain (if we're lucky, we'll squeeze out a passing shower or two). Behind the front, temperatures will be a bit below average Friday through Sunday. We'll enjoy plenty of sunshine both Friday and Saturday, but the next system will bring clouds and eventually some rain chances on Sunday.
The coldest air of the season coming...
The next storm will drive well northwest of our area on Monday. Its associated cold front will bring some rain, followed by the coldest air of the season thus far. High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will likely average in the low to mid 40s, so get ready now!
Another storm later next week...
Our longer range computer models are showing the potential for another storm late next week (Dec. 7-8). The storm track would likely favor rain, but it looks like a rather chilly scenario. This certainly shows that we're getting into the cold season. Stay tuned...
Temperatures will be going up and down the next several days, with the next cold front scheduled to arrive on Thursday. After a brief cool down on Wednesday, we'll jump back into the 60s ahead of the front on Thursday. This front probably won't produce much if any rain (if we're lucky, we'll squeeze out a passing shower or two). Behind the front, temperatures will be a bit below average Friday through Sunday. We'll enjoy plenty of sunshine both Friday and Saturday, but the next system will bring clouds and eventually some rain chances on Sunday.
The coldest air of the season coming...
The next storm will drive well northwest of our area on Monday. Its associated cold front will bring some rain, followed by the coldest air of the season thus far. High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will likely average in the low to mid 40s, so get ready now!
Another storm later next week...
Our longer range computer models are showing the potential for another storm late next week (Dec. 7-8). The storm track would likely favor rain, but it looks like a rather chilly scenario. This certainly shows that we're getting into the cold season. Stay tuned...
Wednesday, November 7, 2007
The chill sticks around...
The cool weather is here to stay through the upcoming weekend. Afternoon temperatures will be in the 50s, with overnight lows mainly in the 30s. While we may see a couple of showers pop up later Friday and Friday night, the rain chances will remain somewhat low until the middle of next week. I expect a bit of rain on Wednesday with a cold front moving through. However, what earlier looked to be a shot of decent rain may not pan out. Our long range computer data was showing a storm passing over the Mid-Atlantic, but has now shifted the track well north of us. Nonetheless, we'll hope for some rain during the mid-week period. Ahead of the front, temperatures will be on the rise into the 60s, with more chilly air poised to move into the lower 48 from Canada behind the front. More below average temperatures are likely on the way heading into the week leading up to Thanksgiving.
La Nina...
It's time to start talking about La Nina as we get close to the presentation of my 7th Annual Winter Outlook. La Nina is probably the main feature most forecasters are focusing on heading into this upcoming winter. So you ask, what is La Nina? It is defined as cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean that affect pressure and weather patterns around the globe. It is the opposite of the familiar El Nino. Some typical impacts in La Nina seasons include wet and cool weather in the Northwest and milder than average in the Southeast. However, I caution that those are generalizations. Every situation is different and the strength and timing of the La Nina episode can have varying effects. Most climate model data shows a weak to moderate La Nina continuing over the next few months, but potentially weaking in the latter portion of the winter. A milder than average forecast would certainly be in line with the recent outlook issued by NOAA, as pictured here.
Monday, November 5, 2007
The coolest air of the season...
A strong cold front is moving through Virginia (during the early morning hours of Tuesday), bringing with it a few showers, but more importantly, the coolest air of the season behind it. It will take some time for the chilly air to settle in, and afternoon temperatures will still rise into the low 60s in many places. But the next few mornings will be on the cold side, averaging close to 32 degrees for overnight lows in the city, with 20s in rural communities. Daytime highs will be in the 50s, a little bit below average for this time of the year.
The upcoming weekend...
Another system will dive southeast from the Great Lakes on Friday, redeveloping off the coast by Saturday morning. We will probably miss out on most of the precipitation, but a couple of showers may pass over the region later Friday and Friday night. The weekend looks like it will provide ample sunshine, with seasonably cool air over us.
And beyond...
Temperatures will likely moderate early next week, reaching the 60s on Monday and Tuesday. The next front will approach on Tuesday and our longer range computer data now advertises a pretty decent rain (and possibly chilly rain) developing for the mid-week period. Of course, I mentioned last week that the model data had initially hinted at something like this for this coming weekend, so we'll have to see how the situation plays out over the next couple of days. Stay tuned...
La Nina...
In my next post, I'll talk a little bit about La Nina, what it is and how it could impact our weather for the upcoming winter.
The upcoming weekend...
Another system will dive southeast from the Great Lakes on Friday, redeveloping off the coast by Saturday morning. We will probably miss out on most of the precipitation, but a couple of showers may pass over the region later Friday and Friday night. The weekend looks like it will provide ample sunshine, with seasonably cool air over us.
And beyond...
Temperatures will likely moderate early next week, reaching the 60s on Monday and Tuesday. The next front will approach on Tuesday and our longer range computer data now advertises a pretty decent rain (and possibly chilly rain) developing for the mid-week period. Of course, I mentioned last week that the model data had initially hinted at something like this for this coming weekend, so we'll have to see how the situation plays out over the next couple of days. Stay tuned...
La Nina...
In my next post, I'll talk a little bit about La Nina, what it is and how it could impact our weather for the upcoming winter.
Saturday, November 3, 2007
The dry November continues...
OK, so we're only a couple of days into November, but the dry spell is certainly back. Rain chances will remain quite low over the next week or so...the exception coming on Tuesday, when we may squeeze out a couple of showers as a strong cold front moves through. We're certainly enjoying a beautiful weekend, with seasonable temperatures that will be on the rise for the beginning of the new work week.
The coolest air of the season on the way...
Speaking of the new week, we'll start out with above average temperatures, but a blast of chilly air is on the way behind this next front. Expect afternoon highs Wednesday through Friday to average in the 50s, with overnight lows in the 30s and even 20s in rural communities! Readings will moderate a bit next weekend (Nov. 10-11) with some upper level ridging over the East.
Looking beyond...
The potential "storm" that several models showed for Nov. 9-10 earlier this week is basically gone from all computer output. Our next rain chances look to come from another front later next weekend (Sunday into Monday, Nov. 11-12). Behind that front, more cool weather is to follow and the trend may very well be for more below average temperatures heading toward Thanksgiving.
The coolest air of the season on the way...
Speaking of the new week, we'll start out with above average temperatures, but a blast of chilly air is on the way behind this next front. Expect afternoon highs Wednesday through Friday to average in the 50s, with overnight lows in the 30s and even 20s in rural communities! Readings will moderate a bit next weekend (Nov. 10-11) with some upper level ridging over the East.
Looking beyond...
The potential "storm" that several models showed for Nov. 9-10 earlier this week is basically gone from all computer output. Our next rain chances look to come from another front later next weekend (Sunday into Monday, Nov. 11-12). Behind that front, more cool weather is to follow and the trend may very well be for more below average temperatures heading toward Thanksgiving.
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
A great Halloween!
We've enjoyed some terrific weather to finish out the month and it will likely go down as the warmest October on record in Richmond, surpassing the old mark in 1985. A mild start to November is on the way as well. Temperatures in Central Virginia will reach the low 70s on Thursday, but a cold front will be heading in from the west. This front won't be able to produce any rain, but will bring cooler air to the region on Friday. There will also be some gusty breezes to finish the work week, particularly along the coast. This will be due to a pretty strong pressure gradient between high pressure building to our north and Tropical Storm Noel (which may be extratropical by Saturday) tracking well east of the Mid-Atlantic coast.
The weekend and next week...
The weekend looks very nice for early November, with high pressure in control. There will be plenty of sunshine, with afternoon highs in the lower 60s and overnight lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. The current dry spell should last through much of the week. Another cold front will slide through on Tuesday. Ahead of the front, temperatures could approach 70 degrees...with much cooler air following the front. Our computer forecast models are showing the potential for a decent shot for a cool to chilly rain later in the week (November 9-10).
The longer range...
Long range data shows upper level ridging over the east during the period November 12-14. That means temperatures will likely be back above average. Beyond that, we're in more of a zonal flow for much of mid-November. If that verifies, we can expect relatively mild to seasonable conditions, with brief intrusions of cooler air.
The winter outlook...
We're getting close to that time of the year. I'm busy preparing my 7th annual Winter Outlook and will be presenting it the week of November 19th. More details to come. In the mean time, there's a lot of talk about a mild winter due to La Nina. In coming posts, I'll talk about what La Nina is and what it could mean for the winter ahead.
The weekend and next week...
The weekend looks very nice for early November, with high pressure in control. There will be plenty of sunshine, with afternoon highs in the lower 60s and overnight lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. The current dry spell should last through much of the week. Another cold front will slide through on Tuesday. Ahead of the front, temperatures could approach 70 degrees...with much cooler air following the front. Our computer forecast models are showing the potential for a decent shot for a cool to chilly rain later in the week (November 9-10).
The longer range...
Long range data shows upper level ridging over the east during the period November 12-14. That means temperatures will likely be back above average. Beyond that, we're in more of a zonal flow for much of mid-November. If that verifies, we can expect relatively mild to seasonable conditions, with brief intrusions of cooler air.
The winter outlook...
We're getting close to that time of the year. I'm busy preparing my 7th annual Winter Outlook and will be presenting it the week of November 19th. More details to come. In the mean time, there's a lot of talk about a mild winter due to La Nina. In coming posts, I'll talk about what La Nina is and what it could mean for the winter ahead.
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
The dry pattern is back...
Halloween 2007 will be a winner across the Mid-Atlantic with plenty of sunshine and mild air. Temperatures here in the Metro area should reach the low 70s. And the milder weather will stick around for the first day of November, before a cold front brings readings back to near 60 degrees Friday afternoon.
Tropical Storm Noel...
Noel will make a quick right hand turn and head north of Cuba, passing just east of Florida. South Florida has been experiencing some strong winds due to the pressure gradient between the storm and high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic. All of the hurricane models keep Noel east of the coast and travelling into the North Atlantic by the weekend. As it passes well east of the Virginia coast, we could feel some gusty breezes on Friday, the result of the pressure gradient that will develop between the storm and a new area of high pressure building to our north by the end of the week.
This weekend and beyond...
The dry weather looks to continue through early next week. Temperatures will be close to seasonal averages over the weekend, with readings in the low to mid 60s during the day and upper 30s to low 40s at night. The next cold front due to approach late Tuesday into early Wednesday could usher in some decent chilly air for later next week. Stay tuned...
Tropical Storm Noel...
Noel will make a quick right hand turn and head north of Cuba, passing just east of Florida. South Florida has been experiencing some strong winds due to the pressure gradient between the storm and high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic. All of the hurricane models keep Noel east of the coast and travelling into the North Atlantic by the weekend. As it passes well east of the Virginia coast, we could feel some gusty breezes on Friday, the result of the pressure gradient that will develop between the storm and a new area of high pressure building to our north by the end of the week.
This weekend and beyond...
The dry weather looks to continue through early next week. Temperatures will be close to seasonal averages over the weekend, with readings in the low to mid 60s during the day and upper 30s to low 40s at night. The next cold front due to approach late Tuesday into early Wednesday could usher in some decent chilly air for later next week. Stay tuned...
Thursday, October 25, 2007
Finally RAIN!
A good deluge of rain today was much needed, after over 5 weeks without any significant precipitation. Rainfall tallies between 1 and 2 inches were common Wednesday and Wednesday night over Central Virginia, with more to come. I expect occasional showers (some with heavy rain) to continue Thursday and Friday. A plume of tropical moisture extends from the Bahamas and western Caribbean northward into the Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, a cold front settled to our south late Wednesday evening, with temperatures lowering into the 50s and lower 60s. This front will drift back north by Friday and we could see another decent slug of rain later Friday into the early morning hours of Saturday. That will be pushed away by the next cold front.
Drying out over the weekend...
That front will help to bring a dry and pleasantly cool air mass to Virginia on Sunday, and will stick around into the middle of next week. So the big question is will we enter a wetter period or revert back to the dryness? The longer range charts show that we might return to a dry spell, although there isn't enough evidence to draw conclusions about the early part of November just yet. Stay tuned...
Drying out over the weekend...
That front will help to bring a dry and pleasantly cool air mass to Virginia on Sunday, and will stick around into the middle of next week. So the big question is will we enter a wetter period or revert back to the dryness? The longer range charts show that we might return to a dry spell, although there isn't enough evidence to draw conclusions about the early part of November just yet. Stay tuned...
Friday, October 19, 2007
Some rain, but not enough...
We finally got some measurable rain in the Metro Richmond area today, but it wasn't much...averaging only about 0.10". The drought is classified as "severe" to "extreme" from north to south across our area. We are now just above 6 inches below average precipitation for the year officially at RIC, but the more important stat is that we are more than 5 inches below average since September 1st!
The coming week...
The dry conditions will be back with us throughout the next several days, as high pressure builds over the Mid-Atlantic. The next rain chances will come by mid-next week, as a potent area of low pressure aloft develops over the Central U.S. Based on the latest computer model data, it appears this will keep any significant rain well to our west, but the general flow will import more moisture, so clouds and at least a few showers should be over the state, especially Wednesday and Thursday. As this system lifts northward, a front will likely cross the Mid-Atlantic before next weekend.
More dryness to finish the month?
Behind that front, the upper flow flattens on all of our longer range data, and it appears that a rather zonal (west to east) flow or developing Eastern ridge will be the rule heading into early November. This means our temperatures should remain above average until further notice.
The coming week...
The dry conditions will be back with us throughout the next several days, as high pressure builds over the Mid-Atlantic. The next rain chances will come by mid-next week, as a potent area of low pressure aloft develops over the Central U.S. Based on the latest computer model data, it appears this will keep any significant rain well to our west, but the general flow will import more moisture, so clouds and at least a few showers should be over the state, especially Wednesday and Thursday. As this system lifts northward, a front will likely cross the Mid-Atlantic before next weekend.
More dryness to finish the month?
Behind that front, the upper flow flattens on all of our longer range data, and it appears that a rather zonal (west to east) flow or developing Eastern ridge will be the rule heading into early November. This means our temperatures should remain above average until further notice.
Thursday, October 11, 2007
Still no significant rain in sight...
While the weather has been somewhat "quiet," there's a lot to talk about these days. The lack of rain has really become a major issue across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, as drought conditions are expected to continue well into the future. In fact, the drought is now characterized as extreme in Southern Virginia, and exceptional across parts of the Carolinas extending west into the Tennessee Valley. Here in downtown Richmond, we have now gone 27 days without measurable rain. The airport had .01" on October 5th, and that is the only measurable rain in the metro area since September 14th. September's rainfall was about 3" below average here and if you're wondering, the driest October on record was in 2000, when we recorded just .01".
Record temperatures this past week...
The high temperature of 95 degrees on Tuesday tied for the 3rd hottest October day on record in Richmond. The top five are as follows:
#1 99 degrees (October 6, 1941)
#2 97 degrees (October 5, 1941)
#3 95 degrees (October 9, 2007, October 7, 1941 and October 8, 1941)
It's interesting to note that the other days in the top five were all in 1941, which happens to be the driest October on record.
What's on the way...
The weekend will be dry and seasonably cool, with afternoon highs in the upper 60s and low 70s and overnight lows well down into the 40s. In fact, some rural communities may bottom out in the upper 30s during the early morning hours. I really don't see an end to the dry conditions anytime soon. Our longer range charts show the possibility of an onshore flow developing mid-week, which could bring a little more moisture, but I won't hold my breath. High pressure re-takes control and the dry weather could easily continue into the following weekend (October 20-21).
In the longer range...
NOAA issued their inital winter outlook this week, and it calls for above average temperatures across much of the country during the period December through February. It also states drier than average conditions may cause the drought to persist over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. A weak to moderate La Nina event is expected and I'll be talking more about this in future posts, leading to my 7th Annual Winter Outlook, which will be issued in mid-November.
The tropics are hanging on...
There hasn't been much action in the tropics lately, but Tropical Depression #15 developed in the Central Atlantic on Thursday. Keep in mind, the Atlantic season officially continues until November 30th.
Record temperatures this past week...
The high temperature of 95 degrees on Tuesday tied for the 3rd hottest October day on record in Richmond. The top five are as follows:
#1 99 degrees (October 6, 1941)
#2 97 degrees (October 5, 1941)
#3 95 degrees (October 9, 2007, October 7, 1941 and October 8, 1941)
It's interesting to note that the other days in the top five were all in 1941, which happens to be the driest October on record.
What's on the way...
The weekend will be dry and seasonably cool, with afternoon highs in the upper 60s and low 70s and overnight lows well down into the 40s. In fact, some rural communities may bottom out in the upper 30s during the early morning hours. I really don't see an end to the dry conditions anytime soon. Our longer range charts show the possibility of an onshore flow developing mid-week, which could bring a little more moisture, but I won't hold my breath. High pressure re-takes control and the dry weather could easily continue into the following weekend (October 20-21).
In the longer range...
NOAA issued their inital winter outlook this week, and it calls for above average temperatures across much of the country during the period December through February. It also states drier than average conditions may cause the drought to persist over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. A weak to moderate La Nina event is expected and I'll be talking more about this in future posts, leading to my 7th Annual Winter Outlook, which will be issued in mid-November.
The tropics are hanging on...
There hasn't been much action in the tropics lately, but Tropical Depression #15 developed in the Central Atlantic on Thursday. Keep in mind, the Atlantic season officially continues until November 30th.
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
More action in the tropics...
The cluster of thunderstorms in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico became Tropical Storm Humberto today. This storm will make landfall overnight on the Upper Texas coast and then move inland over Louisiana and Mississippi, bringing significant rainfall amounting to 5 to 10 inches there. The abundant moisture may be some good news here in Virginia, as an approaching cold front will hopefully draw this moisture north into our area on Friday. The front is scheduled to arrive Friday night and I expect some showers and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon and continue into the night. Potentially this could be some beneficial rain, considering the lack of rain we've had over the last two and a half weeks. By Saturday morning, the front will be exiting our area, with more dry and pleasant weather behind it for the weekend.
Meanwhile, way out in the Atlantic, the other tropical wave we've been watching very closely has become Tropical Depression #8. I expect this to become Tropical Storm Ingrid as it moves west-northwest over the next 24-48 hours. By the way, if you're wondering where the name Ingrid came from, it replaced Iris, which was retired in 2001. In fact, the "I" names were retired in the Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf four years in a row from 2001-2004. The retired names were Iris (2001), Isidore (2002), Isabel (2003) and Ivan (2004).
Meanwhile, way out in the Atlantic, the other tropical wave we've been watching very closely has become Tropical Depression #8. I expect this to become Tropical Storm Ingrid as it moves west-northwest over the next 24-48 hours. By the way, if you're wondering where the name Ingrid came from, it replaced Iris, which was retired in 2001. In fact, the "I" names were retired in the Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf four years in a row from 2001-2004. The retired names were Iris (2001), Isidore (2002), Isabel (2003) and Ivan (2004).
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
The heat gives way...
The cold front that moved through Central Virginia didn't produce a whole lot of rain. In fact, here at CBS 6, we only received .05" from the late afternoon showers. The front will move southward into the Carolinas, and we have some very nice weather to enjoy the next couple of days, with lower humidity and afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s.
Next front arrives Friday night...
The next cold front will approach the region Friday evening. It could spark a few scattered showers and thunderstorms, although I don't expect any significant problems for Friday night high school football games. Behind this front, another "cool" and dry air mass will settle over the area for the weekend. I expect temperatures by Sunday to average in the 70s by day and the 50s by night. A few upper 40s are possible in the coolest rural communities!
The longer range and the tropics...
The longer range data is not showing the additional cool-down I was mentioning yesterday. In fact, temperatures should be at or above average later next week (Sept. 20-23), although that may depend on a potential coastal system showing up in the computer projections.
The cluster of showers and thunderstorms that is a little over 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands is showing some good organization tonight and I wouldn't be surprised if it is declared a tropical depression on Wednesday.
Next front arrives Friday night...
The next cold front will approach the region Friday evening. It could spark a few scattered showers and thunderstorms, although I don't expect any significant problems for Friday night high school football games. Behind this front, another "cool" and dry air mass will settle over the area for the weekend. I expect temperatures by Sunday to average in the 70s by day and the 50s by night. A few upper 40s are possible in the coolest rural communities!
The longer range and the tropics...
The longer range data is not showing the additional cool-down I was mentioning yesterday. In fact, temperatures should be at or above average later next week (Sept. 20-23), although that may depend on a potential coastal system showing up in the computer projections.
The cluster of showers and thunderstorms that is a little over 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands is showing some good organization tonight and I wouldn't be surprised if it is declared a tropical depression on Wednesday.
Monday, September 10, 2007
A change in the weather on the way...
While we're still dealing with the heat and humidity, change is on the way. A cold front will slide through Virginia on Tuesday and a pleasant air mass with lower humidity will build over the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday and Thursday. Then another front will come through late Friday night and early Saturday. This will bring a taste of fall for the weekend, with afternoon highs in the upper 70s and overnight lows in the 50s Sunday and Monday.
Maybe another surge of cool air later next week...
The trend is definitely toward cooler weather. Our longer range data suggests another cool air mass sliding into the East next Thursday and Friday, with a digging upper trough. However, there are signs that the flow could quickly flatten again by the following weekend (September 22-23).
More action in the tropics?
While we are saying goodbye to Gabrielle, a rather large area of showers and thunderstorms located midway between the Windward Islands and the Cape Verde Islands is being watched closely for development. It is getting better organized and could become a tropical depression within the next couple of days as it moves to the west-northwest. One other area over the western Gulf of Mexico has some potential for development as it moves to the west.
Maybe another surge of cool air later next week...
The trend is definitely toward cooler weather. Our longer range data suggests another cool air mass sliding into the East next Thursday and Friday, with a digging upper trough. However, there are signs that the flow could quickly flatten again by the following weekend (September 22-23).
More action in the tropics?
While we are saying goodbye to Gabrielle, a rather large area of showers and thunderstorms located midway between the Windward Islands and the Cape Verde Islands is being watched closely for development. It is getting better organized and could become a tropical depression within the next couple of days as it moves to the west-northwest. One other area over the western Gulf of Mexico has some potential for development as it moves to the west.
Saturday, September 8, 2007
Gabrielle moving northwest toward North Carolina
Gabrielle remains a Subtropical Storm this afternoon and continues on a track toward North Carolina. Tropical storm warnings are now in effect as of Saturday afternoon from Surf City, NC north to the North Carolina/Virginia border.
The hurricane model data continues to show a track around the periphery of a ridge to the northeast of the storm. This would keep the center from moving inland. However, it is likely to skirt the Outer Banks of NC Sunday evening. Any significant impacts are still expected to be confined to coastal communities, particularly in eastern North Carolina.
While the storm remains "subtropical" due to its wide spread of maximum winds (which are at 45 mph), it could become tropical over the next 24 hours with some stregthening a possibility. After Gabrielle flirts with North Carolina, it should recurve out into the Atlantic.
If there are any significant changes to the storm over the weekend, I will post again. Otherwise, enjoy the rest of the weekend!
The hurricane model data continues to show a track around the periphery of a ridge to the northeast of the storm. This would keep the center from moving inland. However, it is likely to skirt the Outer Banks of NC Sunday evening. Any significant impacts are still expected to be confined to coastal communities, particularly in eastern North Carolina.
While the storm remains "subtropical" due to its wide spread of maximum winds (which are at 45 mph), it could become tropical over the next 24 hours with some stregthening a possibility. After Gabrielle flirts with North Carolina, it should recurve out into the Atlantic.
If there are any significant changes to the storm over the weekend, I will post again. Otherwise, enjoy the rest of the weekend!
It's now Gabrielle!
As of late Friday night, the developing Atlantic storm is now Subtropical Storm Gabrielle. The hurricane hunters could not find a well-defined circulation, but satellite images during the evening showed some organization and the National Hurricane Center went ahead and designated it a subtropical storm. It does not have true tropical characteristics at this point, and therefore the designation of "subtropical." The maximum sustained winds are at 45 mph and some strengthening is possible. However, there are a couple of factors working against the storm, one being very dry air to the south and west in the upper levels and some vertical wind shear. Even so, Gabrielle could very well become tropical in nature before making a run at the East Coast. Tropical storm watches are up from Edisto Beach, SC north to Oregon Inlet, NC. The hurricane model suite continues to favor a track to the Outer Banks of North Carolina and then recurvature around a building ridge to the east of the storm. This would keep any significant impact confined to coastal communities.
Friday, September 7, 2007
Still waiting on the Atlantic system...
News from the Atlantic today...the system off the Southeast coast has become more organized. However, the hurricane hunters could not find a well-defined circulation. Upper level winds are becoming more favorable for development. It remains very possible that this system becomes a tropical or subtropical storm at any time. At this point, based on all the forecast guidance, it looks like any significant impact would be limited to the immediate coastal communities. If there is any change later this evening, I will post an update.
Thursday, September 6, 2007
Still no change in the Atlantic...
Another day has gone by, with no development from the system we are watching well out in the Atlantic. In fact, it is more disorganized than it was about 24 hours ago. However, upper level winds may become a bit more favorable for development over the next 24-48 hours, so there is still a possibility that it becomes a tropical storm. All of our computer data continues to suggest a movement to the northwest beginning Friday morning.
Assuming this indeed becomes a player, we turn our attention to the potential track. Looking at the very latest hurricane model data, the trend continues to bring the storm relatively close to the Mid-Atlantic coast, but staying offshore. This would keep any significant impact confined to coastal communities. While the track is obviously still in question (since the system has not even developed yet), there is very good consensus amongst the guidance. I'll post another update Friday afternoon, and maybe there will be something new to report...
Assuming this indeed becomes a player, we turn our attention to the potential track. Looking at the very latest hurricane model data, the trend continues to bring the storm relatively close to the Mid-Atlantic coast, but staying offshore. This would keep any significant impact confined to coastal communities. While the track is obviously still in question (since the system has not even developed yet), there is very good consensus amongst the guidance. I'll post another update Friday afternoon, and maybe there will be something new to report...
Wednesday, September 5, 2007
No changes in the Atlantic system today...
We continue to watch the disturbance that is located well off the Southeast coast and about 375 miles west-southwest of Bermuda as of late afternoon. There is a concentration of showers and thunderstorms to the east of the center, along with near gale force winds reported by the hurricane hunters. However, the system has not taken on any tropical or subtropical characteristics as of yet. Upper level winds are somewhat unfavorable for development right now, but are expected to become more favorable over the next couple of days. So don't be surprised if this is a tropical or subtropical storm by the end of the week. If it is named, it would be Gabrielle.
In terms of impact on Central Virginia and the Mid-Atlantic, it all depends on the storm track. Most of the significant rain would likely be on the east side of the center and right now, the forecast track from most of our computer model data takes it right along the Mid-Atlantic coast from the eastern Carolinas up along the Virginia coast and then northeast. As a front approaches our area from the west, it could draw some of the moisture farther inland, so I do expect some showers and thunderstorms on Sunday, with the potential for some rain as early as Saturday evening, mainly east of Richmond. It looks like the whole weather pattern will be evolving very slowly, and the threat for showers and thunderstorms will linger Monday and Tuesday.
Stay tuned for more updates on this developing weather situation...
In terms of impact on Central Virginia and the Mid-Atlantic, it all depends on the storm track. Most of the significant rain would likely be on the east side of the center and right now, the forecast track from most of our computer model data takes it right along the Mid-Atlantic coast from the eastern Carolinas up along the Virginia coast and then northeast. As a front approaches our area from the west, it could draw some of the moisture farther inland, so I do expect some showers and thunderstorms on Sunday, with the potential for some rain as early as Saturday evening, mainly east of Richmond. It looks like the whole weather pattern will be evolving very slowly, and the threat for showers and thunderstorms will linger Monday and Tuesday.
Stay tuned for more updates on this developing weather situation...
Tuesday, September 4, 2007
The tropics are active...
For the first time in recorded history, a hurricane from the Atlantic and one from the Pacific made landfall on the same day. Hurricane Henriette made landfall on the Baja California coast and Hurricane Felix made landfall in Nicaragua. Felix is the Atlantic storm that struck as a Category 5 storm and then rapidly weakened throughout the day. However, it remains a major rainmaker and could cause catastropic flash flooding and mudslides across parts of Central America. The very heavy rain is expected to impact much of Honduras and Guatemala.
Meanwhile, back home we're keeping a close eye on a disturbance off the Southeast coast. This system is becoming a bit more organized and despite the fact conditions are only marginal for development, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring the situation, as it could become a tropical or subtropical cyclone over the next couple of days. Even though the disturbance has been drifting east today, our computer model data suggests that it will turn back west-northwest and could impact the East Coast of the U.S. over the upcoming weekend. Right now, the favored track takes the storm along the Outer Banks of North Carolina by Sunday and then north along the coast. The exact track will determine what effects we see here in Central Virginia, but beware that this could be a significant rain and even wind maker later in the weekend. Obviously a lot of eyes are on the forecast for Saturday night, with the Chevy Rock & Roll 400 taking place at RIR. At this point, we're hopeful any rain would hold off in the Metro Richmond area until after the race.
Check back for updates on the developing situation off the Atlantic coast. In the mean time, we'll enjoy some very nice late summer weather the next couple of days, with ample sunshine and afternoon highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.
Meanwhile, back home we're keeping a close eye on a disturbance off the Southeast coast. This system is becoming a bit more organized and despite the fact conditions are only marginal for development, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring the situation, as it could become a tropical or subtropical cyclone over the next couple of days. Even though the disturbance has been drifting east today, our computer model data suggests that it will turn back west-northwest and could impact the East Coast of the U.S. over the upcoming weekend. Right now, the favored track takes the storm along the Outer Banks of North Carolina by Sunday and then north along the coast. The exact track will determine what effects we see here in Central Virginia, but beware that this could be a significant rain and even wind maker later in the weekend. Obviously a lot of eyes are on the forecast for Saturday night, with the Chevy Rock & Roll 400 taking place at RIR. At this point, we're hopeful any rain would hold off in the Metro Richmond area until after the race.
Check back for updates on the developing situation off the Atlantic coast. In the mean time, we'll enjoy some very nice late summer weather the next couple of days, with ample sunshine and afternoon highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.
Friday, August 10, 2007
A break from the extreme heat...
The weekend will bring a break from the extreme heat across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Temperatures here in Central Virginia should average in the upper 80s each afternoon, with lower levels of humidity. Dew points, which have been in the 70s much of this week, are forecast in the mid 60s Saturday and the lower 60s Sunday.
Temperatures should reach the lower 90s early next week, with a thunderstorm or two popping up each afternoon Monday and Tuesday.
Will the extreme heat return?
There are signs that the upper ridge that brought the extreme heat and will shift west over the weekend, could return the extreme heat to Virginia by Wednesday and Thursday. This means temperatures could soar into the mid and upper 90s. However, most of our longer range computer data suggests that a more powerful front will arrive later Thursday. This should "cool" us down again by the end of the new work week.
The latest on the tropics...
There's still very little going on in the tropics. We're watching a disorganized area of showers along a broad surface trough in the western Caribbean. Any development would be very slow. Otherwise, we can't find anything significant across the Atlantic. NOAA came out with an updated seasonal forecast this week, and it still shows above average activity. We're actually a bit ahead of schedule, with three named storms so far. The average date for the third named storm in the Atlantic is August 21st.
Temperatures should reach the lower 90s early next week, with a thunderstorm or two popping up each afternoon Monday and Tuesday.
Will the extreme heat return?
There are signs that the upper ridge that brought the extreme heat and will shift west over the weekend, could return the extreme heat to Virginia by Wednesday and Thursday. This means temperatures could soar into the mid and upper 90s. However, most of our longer range computer data suggests that a more powerful front will arrive later Thursday. This should "cool" us down again by the end of the new work week.
The latest on the tropics...
There's still very little going on in the tropics. We're watching a disorganized area of showers along a broad surface trough in the western Caribbean. Any development would be very slow. Otherwise, we can't find anything significant across the Atlantic. NOAA came out with an updated seasonal forecast this week, and it still shows above average activity. We're actually a bit ahead of schedule, with three named storms so far. The average date for the third named storm in the Atlantic is August 21st.
Wednesday, August 8, 2007
A day for the record books...
Wow, what a scorcher Wednesday was across Virginia and the Mid-Atlantic! The temperature at Richmond International Airport reached 104 degrees, breaking a record for the date and tying for fourth on the all-time list. It was the hottest day in 30 years and the hottest August day since 1918! The heat index reached between 110 and 115 across the region and many record temperatures were broken from the Carolinas north to Baltimore. The temperature at 11:00 at night was still 93 degrees in Richmond, with a heat index of 100!
The following are the hottest days on record in Richmond:
1) 107 degrees on August 6, 1918
2) 106 degrees on August 7, 1918
3) 105 degrees on July 6, 1977
4) 104 degrees on August 8, 2007, as well as August 26, 1952, July 10, 1936 and July 21, 1930
Some other selected record highs across the region included:
Norfolk, VA 100
Roanoke, VA 100
National Airport 102
BWI Airport 102
Dulles Airport 101
Danville, VA 101
Blacksburg, VA 94
Bluefield, WV 91
New Bern, NC 99
Florence, SC 106
Greenville, SC 104
Columbia, SC 105
Augusta, GA 103
Atlantic City, NJ 101
More extreme heat is in the forecast through the end of the work week. The records at RIC are 101 degrees for Thursday, set in 1930, and 100 degrees on Friday, set in 1900.
There is some relief on the way this weekend. A "cool" front sliding into the area from the northwest will likely trigger a few thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening, and temperatures will average in the upper 80s to around 90 Saturday and Sunday.
In the longer term...
The upper ridge responsible for this extreme heat will shift back west to the Plains states for the time being, but our temperatures are still likely to be 90+ much of next week. We'll have to wait and see if the ridge slides back east down the road, which could bring more extreme heat to the East Coast. Meanwhile, the tropics are extremely quiet. At this point, there are no tropical waves that bear watching...but that too could always change, so stay tuned...
The following are the hottest days on record in Richmond:
1) 107 degrees on August 6, 1918
2) 106 degrees on August 7, 1918
3) 105 degrees on July 6, 1977
4) 104 degrees on August 8, 2007, as well as August 26, 1952, July 10, 1936 and July 21, 1930
Some other selected record highs across the region included:
Norfolk, VA 100
Roanoke, VA 100
National Airport 102
BWI Airport 102
Dulles Airport 101
Danville, VA 101
Blacksburg, VA 94
Bluefield, WV 91
New Bern, NC 99
Florence, SC 106
Greenville, SC 104
Columbia, SC 105
Augusta, GA 103
Atlantic City, NJ 101
More extreme heat is in the forecast through the end of the work week. The records at RIC are 101 degrees for Thursday, set in 1930, and 100 degrees on Friday, set in 1900.
There is some relief on the way this weekend. A "cool" front sliding into the area from the northwest will likely trigger a few thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening, and temperatures will average in the upper 80s to around 90 Saturday and Sunday.
In the longer term...
The upper ridge responsible for this extreme heat will shift back west to the Plains states for the time being, but our temperatures are still likely to be 90+ much of next week. We'll have to wait and see if the ridge slides back east down the road, which could bring more extreme heat to the East Coast. Meanwhile, the tropics are extremely quiet. At this point, there are no tropical waves that bear watching...but that too could always change, so stay tuned...
Thursday, July 26, 2007
Steamy pattern through the weekend...
We enjoyed some delightful weather over the past weekend into the early portion of this week, with low dew points in the upper 40s and low 50s (meaning low humidity!). At this time of the year, that is absolutely terrific in Central Virginia and you knew it had to change. Dew points have been on the rise the last couple of days and we're in for some sticky conditions this weekend into early next week.
While we've seen a few showers and even thunderstorms scattered about the state, there hasn't been much rain over the last week (and the last month for that matter). If you're waiting for some rain, our chances will be going up over the weekend. We may get to see a few storms pop up before then, but a front arriving from the Midwest will be the main trigger for some widespread showers and thunderstorms. The period I'm focusing attention on is Sunday through Tuesday. Hopefully some beneficial rain will put a dent in the drought conditions now affecting parts of Virginia.
Looking ahead to next week...
This front will likely stall near or over us, leading to a continued threat for scattered showers and thunderstorms through at least Tuesday. There are signs that the high pressure ridge now over the Rockies and Plains (bringing days on end of triple-digit heat to places like Montana and the Dakotas) will begin to shift a bit to the east. This could lead to a drier but hotter spell heading into the first weekend of August.
The tropics...
Still nothing doing in the tropics! While a few clusters of thunderstorms have popped up over the Gulf of Mexico, nothing has been able to organize and it remains pretty quiet over the open Atlantic. It will be interesting to see if there is any development over the next couple of weeks, as we head into August. Remember the peak of hurricane season is in early to mid-September.
While we've seen a few showers and even thunderstorms scattered about the state, there hasn't been much rain over the last week (and the last month for that matter). If you're waiting for some rain, our chances will be going up over the weekend. We may get to see a few storms pop up before then, but a front arriving from the Midwest will be the main trigger for some widespread showers and thunderstorms. The period I'm focusing attention on is Sunday through Tuesday. Hopefully some beneficial rain will put a dent in the drought conditions now affecting parts of Virginia.
Looking ahead to next week...
This front will likely stall near or over us, leading to a continued threat for scattered showers and thunderstorms through at least Tuesday. There are signs that the high pressure ridge now over the Rockies and Plains (bringing days on end of triple-digit heat to places like Montana and the Dakotas) will begin to shift a bit to the east. This could lead to a drier but hotter spell heading into the first weekend of August.
The tropics...
Still nothing doing in the tropics! While a few clusters of thunderstorms have popped up over the Gulf of Mexico, nothing has been able to organize and it remains pretty quiet over the open Atlantic. It will be interesting to see if there is any development over the next couple of weeks, as we head into August. Remember the peak of hurricane season is in early to mid-September.
Friday, July 13, 2007
A break from the heat...
We've enjoyed a nice break from the heat the past two days, with afternoon temperatures in the 80s and comfortable levels of humidity. If you remember, last week I had talked about our longer range charts showing this pattern change for late this weekend...so it came a couple of days early! The clouds held back the temperature on Friday, but the sun will be back in full force to start the weekend. The humidity will be on the rise by Sunday, and while most of the weekend will be rain-free, there could be a few scattered thunderstorms popping up on Sunday afternoon.
Back to a steamy pattern next week...
It now looks like we'll have more of the typical July weather next week, so the temperatures and humidity will go back up. Afternoon temperatures will average in the low 90s with a blend of clouds and hazy sunshine. Each afternoon, there will be the risk for a few thunderstorms popping up. The storms should be rather isolated Tuesday and Wednesday, but more numerous Monday and Thursday, as a couple of fronts move through the region. The exact timing could change, as it is difficult to forecast exact details with a northwest flow aloft kicking weak disturbances through from time to time.
In the longer range...
The upper pattern looks like it may be rather flat next weekend heading into the week of July 23rd. This means our weather could be rather stagnant with fewer breaks in the heat. There's plenty of extreme heat out west and that might head east. Temperatures could be in the 90s for a prolonged period for the last two weeks of the month.
The tropics...
All is still very quiet in the tropics, with no development expected over the next couple of days. Don't be deceived though, it's still early in the season and activity usually doesn't pick up until August.
Back to a steamy pattern next week...
It now looks like we'll have more of the typical July weather next week, so the temperatures and humidity will go back up. Afternoon temperatures will average in the low 90s with a blend of clouds and hazy sunshine. Each afternoon, there will be the risk for a few thunderstorms popping up. The storms should be rather isolated Tuesday and Wednesday, but more numerous Monday and Thursday, as a couple of fronts move through the region. The exact timing could change, as it is difficult to forecast exact details with a northwest flow aloft kicking weak disturbances through from time to time.
In the longer range...
The upper pattern looks like it may be rather flat next weekend heading into the week of July 23rd. This means our weather could be rather stagnant with fewer breaks in the heat. There's plenty of extreme heat out west and that might head east. Temperatures could be in the 90s for a prolonged period for the last two weeks of the month.
The tropics...
All is still very quiet in the tropics, with no development expected over the next couple of days. Don't be deceived though, it's still early in the season and activity usually doesn't pick up until August.
Friday, July 6, 2007
Intense summer heat on the way...
While temperatures here haven't been all that high for early July (upper 80s to around 90), a big dome of extremely hot air has been affecting the West. Here are some of the high temperatures from Friday:
Phoenix, AZ 113
Las Vegas, NV 115
Salt Lake City, UT 103
Boise, ID 105
Great Falls, MT 104
Rapid City, SD 105
Many of these were record highs, including Great Falls, where the temperature was way above the average high of 80 degrees!
Here in Central Virginia, temperatures will be on the rise through the weekend. The humidity won't be too bad on Saturday, with dew points in the somewhat comfortable low 60s. However, it will become quite steamy by Sunday afternoon, with temperatures in the mid 90s and the heat index around 100 degrees.
A extended spell of very hot weather next week...
Monday will likely be the hottest day here, with temperatures close to the century mark. We could flirt with 100 again on Tuesday, although there will be a risk for some scattered thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon. Temperatures in the 90s are likely again on Wednesday and Thursday, although there will be more cloud cover and an increasing threat for thunderstorms. The next front will move into the area by later Thursday, and should help to lower temperatures back into the 80s by Friday. Our longer range charts are showing the potential of a deeper East Coast trough developing by later next weekend. That could help keep our temperatures down a bit to start the week of the 16th.
The latest in the tropics...
Since our first two named storms of the season, the tropics have been very quiet. We don't see any potential development over the next couple of days. I previously mentioned that the favorable areas for development in June were in the Gulf and Caribbean. Now during July, we look farther into the Atlantic for possible development, including off the East Coast. As we get into August, activity usually increases, heading toward the peak of the Atlantic season, which is around September 10th.
Phoenix, AZ 113
Las Vegas, NV 115
Salt Lake City, UT 103
Boise, ID 105
Great Falls, MT 104
Rapid City, SD 105
Many of these were record highs, including Great Falls, where the temperature was way above the average high of 80 degrees!
Here in Central Virginia, temperatures will be on the rise through the weekend. The humidity won't be too bad on Saturday, with dew points in the somewhat comfortable low 60s. However, it will become quite steamy by Sunday afternoon, with temperatures in the mid 90s and the heat index around 100 degrees.
A extended spell of very hot weather next week...
Monday will likely be the hottest day here, with temperatures close to the century mark. We could flirt with 100 again on Tuesday, although there will be a risk for some scattered thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon. Temperatures in the 90s are likely again on Wednesday and Thursday, although there will be more cloud cover and an increasing threat for thunderstorms. The next front will move into the area by later Thursday, and should help to lower temperatures back into the 80s by Friday. Our longer range charts are showing the potential of a deeper East Coast trough developing by later next weekend. That could help keep our temperatures down a bit to start the week of the 16th.
The latest in the tropics...
Since our first two named storms of the season, the tropics have been very quiet. We don't see any potential development over the next couple of days. I previously mentioned that the favorable areas for development in June were in the Gulf and Caribbean. Now during July, we look farther into the Atlantic for possible development, including off the East Coast. As we get into August, activity usually increases, heading toward the peak of the Atlantic season, which is around September 10th.
Wednesday, June 20, 2007
Summer officially arrives...
It feels anti-climatic, but the Summer Solstice is Thursday afternoon at 2:06 P.M. EDT. After yesterday's high of 99, I think Mother Nature has already shown us summer's true colors. This was the highest temperature since August 3rd last year, when we reached 102 degrees (which was a record high for the date). A front that came through the area Wednesday afternoon has brought much more comfortable air to the Mid-Atlantic. The first hours of summer will provide plenty of sunshine, with readings in the 80s and pleasant humidity levels. The humidity will creep back up on Friday as another front slides into the region from the north.
The weekend...
A complex of showers and thunderstorms will likely slide south and east along the front from the Great Lakes Friday afternoon and evening, and could graze the area Friday night. Behind this front, another comfortable air mass will settle in on Saturday. However, this won't last very long, as temperatures should crack the 90-degree mark on Sunday.
Next week...
The new work week will start very hot, with several days well up into the 90s. There are some signs of moisture trying to push north from the Gulf by the middle of the week, and that could eventually introduce some rain chances to our forecast. The upper level pattern looks like it could change a bit by July 1st, so the extreme heat may not last more than a couple of days. Stay tuned for updates...
Tropical update...
We're now 20 days into the Atlantic hurricane season, so I'll be keeping you posted on any potential storm development as we go through the next couple of months. During June and early July, the favorable areas for development are the Gulf and Caribbean. Right now, it's very quiet there and no development is expected over the next several days.
The weekend...
A complex of showers and thunderstorms will likely slide south and east along the front from the Great Lakes Friday afternoon and evening, and could graze the area Friday night. Behind this front, another comfortable air mass will settle in on Saturday. However, this won't last very long, as temperatures should crack the 90-degree mark on Sunday.
Next week...
The new work week will start very hot, with several days well up into the 90s. There are some signs of moisture trying to push north from the Gulf by the middle of the week, and that could eventually introduce some rain chances to our forecast. The upper level pattern looks like it could change a bit by July 1st, so the extreme heat may not last more than a couple of days. Stay tuned for updates...
Tropical update...
We're now 20 days into the Atlantic hurricane season, so I'll be keeping you posted on any potential storm development as we go through the next couple of months. During June and early July, the favorable areas for development are the Gulf and Caribbean. Right now, it's very quiet there and no development is expected over the next several days.
Tuesday, June 5, 2007
More heat in the wake of the storm...
Barry brought much-needed rain...
Barry's remnants brought more rain to some places on Sunday than had been observed during the entire month of May. Here at the WTVR studios, we recorded 1.45" of rain...and during May, we received 1.71". It was even drier in Northern Virginia, where Dulles airport received only 0.34" of rain in May, the driest on record going back to 1962.
Anyway, Barry was responsible for some impressive rainfall totals up and down the East Coast. Here are the highest totals we've received from various states:
FLORIDA West Palm Beach Int'l Airport 6.99"
GEORGIA Mount Vernon 8.00"
S. CAROLINA Hardeeville 6.12"
N. CAROLINA Fuquay-Varina 3.73"
VIRGINIA Pennington Gap 3.75"
MARYLAND Frostburg 1.75"
PENNSYLVANIA Philadelphia Int'l Airport 1.66"
DELAWARE Dover Air Force Base 1.54"
NEW JERSEY Absecon 4.50"
NEW YORK New York--Central Park 3.91"
CONNECTICUT Berlin 2.90"
MASSACHUSETTS Taunton 3.19"
RHODE ISLAND Burrillville 3.10"
NEW HAMPSHIRE Newmarket 2.75"
MAINE Saco 2.64"
More heat on the way...
Here in Central Virginia, we've got another very warm day on tap for Tuesday. There is the possibility for a few pop-up storms later in the afternoon, as a front approaches from the west. This front will bring a little lower humidity for Wednesday. However, the heat and steamy conditions will return by the end of the week, heading into the weekend. Temperatures will likely climb into the 90s on Friday and could stay above 90 for highs over the weekend. There will be another front approaching the region by the weekend, and that could kick off a few scattered afternoon storms each day. It's typical for fronts to have a hard time getting very far south of here at this time of the year, and this one will be no exception.
Barry's remnants brought more rain to some places on Sunday than had been observed during the entire month of May. Here at the WTVR studios, we recorded 1.45" of rain...and during May, we received 1.71". It was even drier in Northern Virginia, where Dulles airport received only 0.34" of rain in May, the driest on record going back to 1962.
Anyway, Barry was responsible for some impressive rainfall totals up and down the East Coast. Here are the highest totals we've received from various states:
FLORIDA West Palm Beach Int'l Airport 6.99"
GEORGIA Mount Vernon 8.00"
S. CAROLINA Hardeeville 6.12"
N. CAROLINA Fuquay-Varina 3.73"
VIRGINIA Pennington Gap 3.75"
MARYLAND Frostburg 1.75"
PENNSYLVANIA Philadelphia Int'l Airport 1.66"
DELAWARE Dover Air Force Base 1.54"
NEW JERSEY Absecon 4.50"
NEW YORK New York--Central Park 3.91"
CONNECTICUT Berlin 2.90"
MASSACHUSETTS Taunton 3.19"
RHODE ISLAND Burrillville 3.10"
NEW HAMPSHIRE Newmarket 2.75"
MAINE Saco 2.64"
More heat on the way...
Here in Central Virginia, we've got another very warm day on tap for Tuesday. There is the possibility for a few pop-up storms later in the afternoon, as a front approaches from the west. This front will bring a little lower humidity for Wednesday. However, the heat and steamy conditions will return by the end of the week, heading into the weekend. Temperatures will likely climb into the 90s on Friday and could stay above 90 for highs over the weekend. There will be another front approaching the region by the weekend, and that could kick off a few scattered afternoon storms each day. It's typical for fronts to have a hard time getting very far south of here at this time of the year, and this one will be no exception.
Saturday, June 2, 2007
Hurricane Season begins!
Barry is here!
The Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun, and we've got a storm out there this weekend. Tropical Storm Barry formed in the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Friday afternoon. The storm saw some brief intensification early Friday evening (with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph), but then convection spread out and no further strengthening is expected. The worst weather is on the east side of the storm, and is affecting Florida with heavy rain and the possibility of isolated tornadoes.
Barry is expected to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast of Florida Saturday afternoon, then move through the extreme Southeastern U.S. bringing some heavy rain. We expect some of the rain to affect Central Virginia, beginning Sunday morning in our southern counties. The storm should weaken and probably lose its tropical characterisitics before getting this far north, and will pass off the Outer Banks of North Carolina Sunday afternoon and evening. Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the region Sunday, with the heaviest rain occurring east of Interstate 95. West of Metro Richmond, the precipitation will be more scattered in nature.
The coming work week and beyond...
In the wake of the storm, a front arriving from the west could trigger a few afternoon thunderstorms on Monday. This front may hang around on Tuesday as well, but then a drier pattern should set in by Wednesday. An upper level ridge will build east, and that will lead to rising temperatures. We could be reaching 90 or higher by Friday 6/8 and the longer range guidance shows this ridge could be rather dominant the following week, so get used to the heat!
The Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun, and we've got a storm out there this weekend. Tropical Storm Barry formed in the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Friday afternoon. The storm saw some brief intensification early Friday evening (with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph), but then convection spread out and no further strengthening is expected. The worst weather is on the east side of the storm, and is affecting Florida with heavy rain and the possibility of isolated tornadoes.
Barry is expected to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast of Florida Saturday afternoon, then move through the extreme Southeastern U.S. bringing some heavy rain. We expect some of the rain to affect Central Virginia, beginning Sunday morning in our southern counties. The storm should weaken and probably lose its tropical characterisitics before getting this far north, and will pass off the Outer Banks of North Carolina Sunday afternoon and evening. Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the region Sunday, with the heaviest rain occurring east of Interstate 95. West of Metro Richmond, the precipitation will be more scattered in nature.
The coming work week and beyond...
In the wake of the storm, a front arriving from the west could trigger a few afternoon thunderstorms on Monday. This front may hang around on Tuesday as well, but then a drier pattern should set in by Wednesday. An upper level ridge will build east, and that will lead to rising temperatures. We could be reaching 90 or higher by Friday 6/8 and the longer range guidance shows this ridge could be rather dominant the following week, so get used to the heat!
Wednesday, May 23, 2007
The heat builds East...
Our weather in Central Virginia has been wonderful the last couple of days, although we certainly could use at least a little rain. The warm, dry conditions are expected to continue through the next several days. Temperatures will be on the rise, averaging in the low 80s tomorrow and the mid to upper 80s on Friday. You'll also notice an increase in the humidity by the upcoming weekend.
Speaking of the Memorial Day weekend...
Much of the weekend is expected to be rain-free, although very warm to hot and humid. There is a front that will approach the region on Saturday. This could trigger a late afternoon thunderstorm or two, with the greatest chances north and west of Richmond. The front will jump back north on Sunday, and temperatures have the potential to jump above 90 degrees. Then another front will make a run at us on Monday, increasing the chances for a late day thunderstorm or two. Once again, the highest threat will be to the north and west of Richmond.
Beyond the weekend...
This front will likely get hung up over the Mid-Atlantic Tuesday and Wednesday, so I can't rule out a few thundershowers, especially on Tuesday...although we don't expect any widespread rain. The long range computer data suggests the warmer weather is here to stay, at least into early June.
Speaking of the Memorial Day weekend...
Much of the weekend is expected to be rain-free, although very warm to hot and humid. There is a front that will approach the region on Saturday. This could trigger a late afternoon thunderstorm or two, with the greatest chances north and west of Richmond. The front will jump back north on Sunday, and temperatures have the potential to jump above 90 degrees. Then another front will make a run at us on Monday, increasing the chances for a late day thunderstorm or two. Once again, the highest threat will be to the north and west of Richmond.
Beyond the weekend...
This front will likely get hung up over the Mid-Atlantic Tuesday and Wednesday, so I can't rule out a few thundershowers, especially on Tuesday...although we don't expect any widespread rain. The long range computer data suggests the warmer weather is here to stay, at least into early June.
Tuesday, May 8, 2007
Strong storm off the Southeast coast keeps an onshore flow in place...
A rather strong spring storm is still sitting off the Southeast coast, producing gale force winds near the coasts of North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia. In fact, the National Hurricane Center is keeping a close eye on this storm, in case of any tropical or subtropical development. By the way, the Atlantic hurricane season does not officially begin until June 1st. This system is inching toward the coast and will continue to bring an east-southeast wind into Virginia. This means we'll be dealing with quite a few clouds through Thursday. However, the skies will be rather changeable and any sun we see will make the atmosphere a bit more unstable. This will likely cause a few spotty showers and possibly even thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday, the air will dry out a bit and temperatures could crack the 80-degree mark.
Friday and the weekend...
Friday looks like it could be the nicest day of the week, with ample sunshine and temperatures well into the 80s. It should be a great start to the big Jamestown celebration. However, a cold front will be approaching the area and could trigger a few thunderstorms as early as late Friday night. There will be a higher threat for scattered showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, although at this point I don't expect a washout. It appears the front will get far enough south of us on Sunday so we can stay dry, although it will be a bit cooler with an onshore breeze. If the front hangs closer to us, then we will have higher rain chances.
Next week...
The new work week may start with a few showers on Monday as the front lifts back to the north. We should get into a southwest flow on Tuesday, boosting temperatures back into the 80s. However, another front approaches by Tuesday night and that will likely bring in somewhat cooler air for the rest of next week (May 16-18).
Friday and the weekend...
Friday looks like it could be the nicest day of the week, with ample sunshine and temperatures well into the 80s. It should be a great start to the big Jamestown celebration. However, a cold front will be approaching the area and could trigger a few thunderstorms as early as late Friday night. There will be a higher threat for scattered showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, although at this point I don't expect a washout. It appears the front will get far enough south of us on Sunday so we can stay dry, although it will be a bit cooler with an onshore breeze. If the front hangs closer to us, then we will have higher rain chances.
Next week...
The new work week may start with a few showers on Monday as the front lifts back to the north. We should get into a southwest flow on Tuesday, boosting temperatures back into the 80s. However, another front approaches by Tuesday night and that will likely bring in somewhat cooler air for the rest of next week (May 16-18).
Monday, April 30, 2007
A very warm start to the work week...
Temperatures across the region topped out in the upper 80s to around 90 this afternoon. The warmth spread all the way to coastal communities, with a land breeze from the west. Tomorrow will bring more of the same for most of us, although along the Bay, readings will be a bit lower with a light onshore breeze early on eventually turning to the south.
A change later in the week...
A cold front will move into the region on Wednesday. We may see a few showers or thunderstorms pop up during the afternoon, although we don't expect a lot of rain. Behind this front, the major change will come in the temperature department. Average high temperatures later this week will be in the lower 70s, with a blend of sun and clouds expected Thursday and Friday. The big upcoming weekend looks very nice at this point, with ample sunshine, afternoon highs in the mid 70s and overnight lows in the upper 40s.
In the longer range...
It looks like next week we'll stay on the warm side, with near or above average temperatures expected. Our climate model data shows a possible trough across the Great Lakes and Northeast during the middle of the month that could cool us off a bit, but the upper ridge that is now building over the Central and Eastern U.S. will likely return later in the month, so those of you that like warm weather will get your share.
A change later in the week...
A cold front will move into the region on Wednesday. We may see a few showers or thunderstorms pop up during the afternoon, although we don't expect a lot of rain. Behind this front, the major change will come in the temperature department. Average high temperatures later this week will be in the lower 70s, with a blend of sun and clouds expected Thursday and Friday. The big upcoming weekend looks very nice at this point, with ample sunshine, afternoon highs in the mid 70s and overnight lows in the upper 40s.
In the longer range...
It looks like next week we'll stay on the warm side, with near or above average temperatures expected. Our climate model data shows a possible trough across the Great Lakes and Northeast during the middle of the month that could cool us off a bit, but the upper ridge that is now building over the Central and Eastern U.S. will likely return later in the month, so those of you that like warm weather will get your share.
Friday, April 27, 2007
A stormy Friday for some...
Damage in Gloucester County declared a weak tornado...
A warm front lifting through the area earlier today brought some strong thunderstorms, especially east of Richmond, from King & Queen over to Gloucester County. In Ark (Gloucester County), the National Weather Service determined damage to be associated with an EF0 tornado. The "EF scale" or "Enhanced F" scale is an update to the original F-scale to determine the strength of tornadoes. The winds associated with an EF0 tornado are estimated to be in the range of 65-85 mph. This storm in Gloucester produced damage that included a large tree on a house and roofs blown off horse stables. The tornado path was 3 to 3.5 miles long and 100 yards wide.
While there were some nasty storms in the eastern portion of Virginia, most of us escaped with just a few showers and rumbles of thunder. The warmer air took its time getting here and we didn't break into sunshine until this afternoon. That kept the air from becoming too unstable, therefore reducing the severe weather threat.
The weekend...
The upcoming weekend looks mainly dry and pleasant. The only fly in the ointment is an upper level trough that will swing through the Mid-Atlantic later Saturday afternoon and evening. This could trigger a few passing showers and possibly even a rumble of thunder. Otherwise, we should enjoy plenty of sunshine both weekend days, with afternoon temperatures well into the 70s.
Heating up early next week...
We'll then undergo another significant warm-up early next week, with readings in the lower 80s on Monday and approaching 90 degrees on Tuesday. Then another cold front will approach from the north, and this could trigger a round of thunderstorms on Wednesday. Following that frontal passage, temperatures should average in the seasonable 70s to end the new work week.
A warm front lifting through the area earlier today brought some strong thunderstorms, especially east of Richmond, from King & Queen over to Gloucester County. In Ark (Gloucester County), the National Weather Service determined damage to be associated with an EF0 tornado. The "EF scale" or "Enhanced F" scale is an update to the original F-scale to determine the strength of tornadoes. The winds associated with an EF0 tornado are estimated to be in the range of 65-85 mph. This storm in Gloucester produced damage that included a large tree on a house and roofs blown off horse stables. The tornado path was 3 to 3.5 miles long and 100 yards wide.
While there were some nasty storms in the eastern portion of Virginia, most of us escaped with just a few showers and rumbles of thunder. The warmer air took its time getting here and we didn't break into sunshine until this afternoon. That kept the air from becoming too unstable, therefore reducing the severe weather threat.
The weekend...
The upcoming weekend looks mainly dry and pleasant. The only fly in the ointment is an upper level trough that will swing through the Mid-Atlantic later Saturday afternoon and evening. This could trigger a few passing showers and possibly even a rumble of thunder. Otherwise, we should enjoy plenty of sunshine both weekend days, with afternoon temperatures well into the 70s.
Heating up early next week...
We'll then undergo another significant warm-up early next week, with readings in the lower 80s on Monday and approaching 90 degrees on Tuesday. Then another cold front will approach from the north, and this could trigger a round of thunderstorms on Wednesday. Following that frontal passage, temperatures should average in the seasonable 70s to end the new work week.
Tuesday, April 17, 2007
The big storm is finally winding down...
The big monster storm still spinning off the Northeast coast has built quite a resume. It started in the nation's mid-section and then after passing Virginia, has walloped the Northeast over the last couple of days. Strong onshore winds have produced waves of 10-30 feet and significant beach erosion. Over 7 1/2 inches of rain fell in New York City on Sunday, the second wettest day on record for the Big Apple. Heavy snow fell from Pennsylvania into parts of New England, and this was one of the greatest April snowstorms on record in Central New York, where over a foot was recorded in Binghamton. The winds were impressive here in Central Virginia, but nothing like some of the gusts reported in the Northeast. They included 60 mph in both Wilmington, DE and Providence, RI, 81 mph in Cape Elizabeth, ME and an impressive 156 mph atop Mount Washington, NH.
The wind and clouds continue to diminish across our area, and tomorrow looks like a pretty decent day, with a blend of sun and clouds and afternoon temperatures near 60 (still about 10 degrees below average for this time of the year). A rather small storm crossing the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday will bring a few showers with it. Then drier and milder weather will take over on Friday and continue over the weekend.
Next week's outlook and beyond...
Warmer weather is definitely in our future. Temperatures should bounce above 80 degrees Monday and Tuesday. An upper level ridge will build over the Eastern U.S. and could keep us warm through much if not all of next week. In the longer term, our climate model data suggests a warm finish to April and mild to warm weather in early May. The upper level pattern looks like it will be nearly zonal (west to east), which should keep significant cold spells out of our area.
The wind and clouds continue to diminish across our area, and tomorrow looks like a pretty decent day, with a blend of sun and clouds and afternoon temperatures near 60 (still about 10 degrees below average for this time of the year). A rather small storm crossing the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday will bring a few showers with it. Then drier and milder weather will take over on Friday and continue over the weekend.
Next week's outlook and beyond...
Warmer weather is definitely in our future. Temperatures should bounce above 80 degrees Monday and Tuesday. An upper level ridge will build over the Eastern U.S. and could keep us warm through much if not all of next week. In the longer term, our climate model data suggests a warm finish to April and mild to warm weather in early May. The upper level pattern looks like it will be nearly zonal (west to east), which should keep significant cold spells out of our area.
Monday, April 9, 2007
The cold continues...
Yet another night with a Freeze Warning here in Central Virginia. Temperatures will get down into the upper 20s and lower 30s by sunrise. There were several record lows set in the Mid-Atlantic this morning, including Lynchburg, Wallops Island and Baltimore. Even though we'll start out cold tomorrow, the chill will ease a bit in the afternoon, with temperatures rising to around 60 degrees.
By the way, the snow on Saturday amounted to 1.0" at Richmond International Airport. That's three times what we received for the entire rest of the winter (0.3")!!
A few rain chances this week...
A storm system travelling to our northwest will throw some moisture our way on Wednesday, leading to a threat for showers later in the afternoon. There may be a few more passing showers early Thursday, although drier and milder air will work into the area to finish the work week. Another rain chance will come this weekend, but at this point it looks dry for the Strawberry Hill Races on Saturday. The rain chances will increase Saturday night into Sunday, when we may see some thunderstorms as well.
The longer term...
Behind the weekend system, another quick shot of chilly air is on tap early next week. It's still a little early to tell whether it will be as chilly as this last blast, and it should be somewhat brief. However, some quick temperture changes appear to be in order for the following week, with another shot of some rain around Thursday the 19th.
By the way, the snow on Saturday amounted to 1.0" at Richmond International Airport. That's three times what we received for the entire rest of the winter (0.3")!!
A few rain chances this week...
A storm system travelling to our northwest will throw some moisture our way on Wednesday, leading to a threat for showers later in the afternoon. There may be a few more passing showers early Thursday, although drier and milder air will work into the area to finish the work week. Another rain chance will come this weekend, but at this point it looks dry for the Strawberry Hill Races on Saturday. The rain chances will increase Saturday night into Sunday, when we may see some thunderstorms as well.
The longer term...
Behind the weekend system, another quick shot of chilly air is on tap early next week. It's still a little early to tell whether it will be as chilly as this last blast, and it should be somewhat brief. However, some quick temperture changes appear to be in order for the following week, with another shot of some rain around Thursday the 19th.
Thursday, April 5, 2007
The big chill is on this weekend...
Very cool weather will be with us through the upcoming Easter weekend. In fact, we'll make a run at some record lows, with a good chance of reaching the record on Easter morning. Here are the records for the next few days at RIC Airport:
Friday 4/6 27 degrees, set in 1975
Saturday 4/7 25 degrees, set in 1977
Sunday 4/8 28 degrees, set in 1990
Monday 4/9 27 degrees, set in 1972
On top of the chill, some of us may see some snow in the air early Saturday morning. An upper level disturbance swinging through the Mid-Atlantic will help to trigger the development of a surface low near the Virginia coast late Friday night. This will help to squeeze some moisture out in the form of rain and snow showers during the wee hours of the morning. Granted the air is quite dry, but this will be a pretty vigorous disturbance. Believe it or not, flakes could be in the air from the metro east. Coastal areas will have the greatest chances of potentially seeing a little white on grassy areas. This system will depart the coast rather quickly, so the sun will be back with us. However, there will be a brisk, chilly breeze keeping temperatures well below average in the 40s.
Our best shot at a record low is Sunday morning, when I expect readings to dip into the mid and upper 20s, with lower 20s in rural communities. Temperatures will moderate a bit Easter Sunday afternoon, with numbers in the low to mid 50s with a decent amount of sunshine.
Moderation is on tap early next week, with temperatures in the 60s to near 70 by Wednesday. Our next rain chances will come on Wednesday, as a front approaches from the west. Temperatures should then be above average later next week into the following weekend (April 15-16).
Friday 4/6 27 degrees, set in 1975
Saturday 4/7 25 degrees, set in 1977
Sunday 4/8 28 degrees, set in 1990
Monday 4/9 27 degrees, set in 1972
On top of the chill, some of us may see some snow in the air early Saturday morning. An upper level disturbance swinging through the Mid-Atlantic will help to trigger the development of a surface low near the Virginia coast late Friday night. This will help to squeeze some moisture out in the form of rain and snow showers during the wee hours of the morning. Granted the air is quite dry, but this will be a pretty vigorous disturbance. Believe it or not, flakes could be in the air from the metro east. Coastal areas will have the greatest chances of potentially seeing a little white on grassy areas. This system will depart the coast rather quickly, so the sun will be back with us. However, there will be a brisk, chilly breeze keeping temperatures well below average in the 40s.
Our best shot at a record low is Sunday morning, when I expect readings to dip into the mid and upper 20s, with lower 20s in rural communities. Temperatures will moderate a bit Easter Sunday afternoon, with numbers in the low to mid 50s with a decent amount of sunshine.
Moderation is on tap early next week, with temperatures in the 60s to near 70 by Wednesday. Our next rain chances will come on Wednesday, as a front approaches from the west. Temperatures should then be above average later next week into the following weekend (April 15-16).
Tuesday, April 3, 2007
A potent cold front is on its way...
We enjoyed another beautiful warm, sunny day across the region with temperatures back into the 80s. However, a strong cold front is poised to move through the area tomorrow. This front is helping to trigger severe weather across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley this evening. It will track to the I-95 corridor by midday tomorrow. The timing of the front isn't favorable for many strong storms to break out, but there is the possibility of some isolated severe weather in eastern counties near the water during the early and mid-afternoon hours.
A blast of chill on the way...
Some very cool air will overspread the region by Thursday morning and we'll stay cool through the weekend. We're talking about temperatures some 10-15 degrees below average. Daytime highs will average in the mid 50s, with overnight lows in the 30s and some 20s in rural communities. We could come close to a few record lows, especially Sunday and Monday mornings.
The longer range...
Moderation will begin early next week, with afternoon temperatures reaching the 60s by Tuesday. There is the possibility of some decent rain during the mid-week period and then the pattern will shift again to a milder regime. The climate model data is showing a rather impressive upper ridge building over the Eastern U.S. later in the month, so the last couple of weeks of April could be on the warm side. Stay tuned...
A blast of chill on the way...
Some very cool air will overspread the region by Thursday morning and we'll stay cool through the weekend. We're talking about temperatures some 10-15 degrees below average. Daytime highs will average in the mid 50s, with overnight lows in the 30s and some 20s in rural communities. We could come close to a few record lows, especially Sunday and Monday mornings.
The longer range...
Moderation will begin early next week, with afternoon temperatures reaching the 60s by Tuesday. There is the possibility of some decent rain during the mid-week period and then the pattern will shift again to a milder regime. The climate model data is showing a rather impressive upper ridge building over the Eastern U.S. later in the month, so the last couple of weeks of April could be on the warm side. Stay tuned...
Friday, March 30, 2007
What a nice day!
Our Friday was absolutely wonderful here in Central Virginia, with wall-to-wall sunshine and afternoon temperatures in the upper 60s. Meanwhile, it's been a very busy day in the Plains states down into Texas, where there have been numerous strong thunderstorms. Down in Texas, we've received numerous reports of tornadoes, hail and wind damage.
The weekend will start on a quiet note for us, with a blend of sun and clouds expected for Saturday. A light easterly flow will develop, producing more clouds in the afternoon and keeping our temperatures from rising too high. Afternoon readings should average in the mid and upper 60s, although coastal communities may stay in the 50s.
Some rain just west of the Blue Ridge will streak into our area later Saturday night and Sunday. The weekend will finish on a rather cloudy note, and it will be a bit wet at times. Then a front to our west will clear us out in time to start the new week.
Some rapid temperature changes next week...
With the return of sunshine on Monday, we'll also see a very quick warm up. Temperatures are likely to reach 80 degrees in most places on Monday and rise into the 80s on Tuesday. Then a strong cold front will approach the area on Wednesday, offering showers and thunderstorms. This front will be followed by a quick cool-down. Temperatures for the end of the week will average in the upper 50s to near 60 during the day and down into the chilly 30s (and 20s in some rural communities) at night.
The chill could linger for a couple of days. If you remember previous posts, we have been following this cool shot for a while, expecting it to affect the area between April 4-10. The following week should see temperatures return to near or above seasonal averages, which by then will be in the mid to upper 60s for daytime highs.
The weekend will start on a quiet note for us, with a blend of sun and clouds expected for Saturday. A light easterly flow will develop, producing more clouds in the afternoon and keeping our temperatures from rising too high. Afternoon readings should average in the mid and upper 60s, although coastal communities may stay in the 50s.
Some rain just west of the Blue Ridge will streak into our area later Saturday night and Sunday. The weekend will finish on a rather cloudy note, and it will be a bit wet at times. Then a front to our west will clear us out in time to start the new week.
Some rapid temperature changes next week...
With the return of sunshine on Monday, we'll also see a very quick warm up. Temperatures are likely to reach 80 degrees in most places on Monday and rise into the 80s on Tuesday. Then a strong cold front will approach the area on Wednesday, offering showers and thunderstorms. This front will be followed by a quick cool-down. Temperatures for the end of the week will average in the upper 50s to near 60 during the day and down into the chilly 30s (and 20s in some rural communities) at night.
The chill could linger for a couple of days. If you remember previous posts, we have been following this cool shot for a while, expecting it to affect the area between April 4-10. The following week should see temperatures return to near or above seasonal averages, which by then will be in the mid to upper 60s for daytime highs.
Tuesday, March 27, 2007
Some Record Highs Over the Region Today...
What a warm late March day! The high temp at Richmond International Airport was 86 degrees, one shy of the record set back in 1907. Records were set in a few places though, including 86 at Norfolk, 82 at Wallops Island and 83 in Elizabeth City, NC.
The warmth won't hang around though, as another backdoor front is on schedule to slide into the area by morning. There will probably be a range of temps across the area tomorrow, with readings in the lower to mid 60s over the Northern Neck to near 80 over Southside Virginia. Skies will be rather changeable and a few scattered showers will be around, along with the possibility of a thunderstorm or two.
As the front settles south on Thursday, much cooler air will take over with readings staying in the 50s. Friday morning will be quite chilly (in the 30s), but it looks like a warm-up for the weekend. The outlook for the Ukrop's Monument Avenue 10k still looks promising, although some of our data is suggesting a decent amount of moisture around Saturday morning. This will likely just mean more cloud cover, and that could help to keep temperatures down a bit...good news for the runners. I still believe afternoon temperatures should reach the 70s both weekend days.
It still looks cooler later next week...
Yesterday I pointed out a change in the overall weather pattern later next week, leading to some cooler weather April 4-10. That still looks like a good bet at this point. It doesn't look exceptionally chilly though...and the average high is in the mid 60s.
The warmth won't hang around though, as another backdoor front is on schedule to slide into the area by morning. There will probably be a range of temps across the area tomorrow, with readings in the lower to mid 60s over the Northern Neck to near 80 over Southside Virginia. Skies will be rather changeable and a few scattered showers will be around, along with the possibility of a thunderstorm or two.
As the front settles south on Thursday, much cooler air will take over with readings staying in the 50s. Friday morning will be quite chilly (in the 30s), but it looks like a warm-up for the weekend. The outlook for the Ukrop's Monument Avenue 10k still looks promising, although some of our data is suggesting a decent amount of moisture around Saturday morning. This will likely just mean more cloud cover, and that could help to keep temperatures down a bit...good news for the runners. I still believe afternoon temperatures should reach the 70s both weekend days.
It still looks cooler later next week...
Yesterday I pointed out a change in the overall weather pattern later next week, leading to some cooler weather April 4-10. That still looks like a good bet at this point. It doesn't look exceptionally chilly though...and the average high is in the mid 60s.
Monday, March 26, 2007
More warm weather...
Despite a slight cool-down the last couple of days, temperatures across the region remain above average for this time of the year. Our averages in Richmond are a high of 62 and a low of 40. Tuesday will prove to be a very warm one, with afternoon readings in the 80s! The record high at RIC is 87 degrees, set in 1907 and we have an outside shot at reaching it.
This seems to be the time for backdoor cold fronts. Yet another one will settle into the area by Wednesday, leading to changeable skies and possibly a few showers. There's a better shot at showers Wednesday night and Thursday, as cooler air slides into the region. We'll break out of it on Friday though, and more warmer days are on tap for the weekend.
In the longer term...
Looking down the road, there may be a shot of much cooler air arriving between April 4-10, as the upper pattern shifts with a bit of a trough setting up in the East. However, the flow flattens after that and it looks like we'll be near or above average temperature-wise in mid-April. With a mainly zonal flow, it doesn't appear that we'll have any big rain events either.
This seems to be the time for backdoor cold fronts. Yet another one will settle into the area by Wednesday, leading to changeable skies and possibly a few showers. There's a better shot at showers Wednesday night and Thursday, as cooler air slides into the region. We'll break out of it on Friday though, and more warmer days are on tap for the weekend.
In the longer term...
Looking down the road, there may be a shot of much cooler air arriving between April 4-10, as the upper pattern shifts with a bit of a trough setting up in the East. However, the flow flattens after that and it looks like we'll be near or above average temperature-wise in mid-April. With a mainly zonal flow, it doesn't appear that we'll have any big rain events either.
Wednesday, March 21, 2007
It's "officially" spring...
The vernal equinox occurred Tuesday evening and it's now "officially" spring. Today being the first full day certainly didn't feel like it. Temperatures were stuck in the 40s with lots of cloud cover due to a breeze off the Atlantic. I thought I'd take a look back at some statistics from March 21st over the last ten years in Richmond (the average high is 60 degrees). Here's what I came up with:
2006 - temps in the mid 40s with up to 1" of snow at night!
2005 - a high around 60 with plenty of sunshine
2004 - a high of 61 with gusty winds and periods of sunshine
2003 - a high of 63 with lots of clouds and a few showers around
2002 - a high of 60, but record cold two days later
2001 - a high of 55 with plenty of rain and wind
2000 - a high of 50 with rain and drizzle
1999 - a high of 57 with a lot of rain
1998 - temps in the mid 40s with light rain
1997 - a high of 69 with plenty of sunshine
It turns out that most of these days have been near or below average temperature-wise. You have to go back to 1997 to find a very mild March 21st. Certainly interesting...
The latest on our outlook for the next week or so...
The weather is in for a big change over the next several days, as surface high pressure shifts off the East Coast and our wind turns to the southwest. That along with the return of the sun tomorrow should boost afternoon temperatures into the 70s and to around 80 on Friday. Another cold front will slide in from the north by the weekend. It won't produce much rain, although a few scattered showers are possible. The front will struggle to get very far south and won't offer the dramatic change in temperature we've had with this last front. We should be in the 60s Sunday and probably again on Monday. Then it looks like we could jump into the 70s again by Tuesday and the longer range data is showing a prominent upper level ridge dominating the East later next week, so more warm weather is in our future to finish the month.
If you have a question or comment to share about the weather, e-mail me at mgoldberg@wtvr.com.
Mike
2006 - temps in the mid 40s with up to 1" of snow at night!
2005 - a high around 60 with plenty of sunshine
2004 - a high of 61 with gusty winds and periods of sunshine
2003 - a high of 63 with lots of clouds and a few showers around
2002 - a high of 60, but record cold two days later
2001 - a high of 55 with plenty of rain and wind
2000 - a high of 50 with rain and drizzle
1999 - a high of 57 with a lot of rain
1998 - temps in the mid 40s with light rain
1997 - a high of 69 with plenty of sunshine
It turns out that most of these days have been near or below average temperature-wise. You have to go back to 1997 to find a very mild March 21st. Certainly interesting...
The latest on our outlook for the next week or so...
The weather is in for a big change over the next several days, as surface high pressure shifts off the East Coast and our wind turns to the southwest. That along with the return of the sun tomorrow should boost afternoon temperatures into the 70s and to around 80 on Friday. Another cold front will slide in from the north by the weekend. It won't produce much rain, although a few scattered showers are possible. The front will struggle to get very far south and won't offer the dramatic change in temperature we've had with this last front. We should be in the 60s Sunday and probably again on Monday. Then it looks like we could jump into the 70s again by Tuesday and the longer range data is showing a prominent upper level ridge dominating the East later next week, so more warm weather is in our future to finish the month.
If you have a question or comment to share about the weather, e-mail me at mgoldberg@wtvr.com.
Mike
Welcome!
Let's talk about the weather! Many of you have been reading my column on wtvr.com and it's taking on a new look. I'll expand a bit on what I've already been doing, by talking about current weather events, sometimes checking historical stats and of course taking a glance at what the future holds in store for Central Virginia. Enjoy!
Mike
Mike
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