Weekend storm will bring rain, not snow

** Richmond set another record high Wednesday afternoon, with a high of 77 degrees! **

The new model data today is in very good agreement regarding the weekend storm, at least here in Virginia. There are some questions as to rain vs. snow up north from PA to New England, but here we'll be dealing with rain later Saturday into early Sunday morning.

Storm #1 Thursday...

A smaller storm will affect the area Thursday, moving along a cold front sliding through the Mid-Atlantic. This will bring a bit of rain, and be followed by a pleasant day on Friday (with temperatures a bit above average). Then the fun begins...

Weekend storm update...

I still feel strongly about the weekend storm. The track is NOT favorable for any winter precip. in our area. There may be some snow mixed in up in the mountains, but that's probably it. Warmer air should surge into the region on an east-southeast flow, especially a few thousand feet above the surface. That will guarantee wet weather for us. The various models are coming into good agreement with the storm track:

EUROPEAN: Northern Louisiana Saturday morning through the Ohio Valley, then splitting energy and giving way to a new low over Central and Eastern Virginia Sunday morning, which then moves up to Northern Maine early Monday morning.

GFS (Global Forecast System--American): Northern Mississippi early Saturday morning transferring energy to the coast Saturday night, with the new low over Long Island Sunday morning.

UK: Northern Mississippi early Saturday morning...then splitting energy over the mountains late Saturday night, with a new low off the Virginia coast Sunday morning.

That's a taste of what the model data has shown today. The big questions are up in New England, as right now there will likely be enough warm air along the coast to bring mostly liquid precipitation, but it is too early to tell how far inland the warmer air will get, meaning there is the potential for decent snows from this storm up north.

The longer term...

Very cold air will move in behind the storm and stay with us early next week. Any system mid-week would be very weak and the model data is not impressive at all. So next week looks pretty quiet.

White Christmas?...

Of course I've already been asked about a white Christmas. The odds here are so low to begin with and the long range data doesn't offer any hope. Right now, upon first glimpse...we may be relatively mild the last week in December. Right now, the GFS has a storm affecting the East Coast on Christmas...but it's a rainmaker...and it's too far in the future to be relied on anyway. Stay tuned...