Thursday evening update on the weekend storm...

After looking at the latest model suite, I don't have any different thoughts on the weekend storm. Those hoping for winter precipitation will be quite disappointed in Central Virginia. This is a rainmaker for us, not snow. That being said, there may be some sleet mixed in at the very start Saturday afternoon, especially north and west of Richmond. However, warmer air will overtake the region, leading to some significant rain Saturday night. The models still have good consensus on the storm track up until the transfer of energy to near the coast. What happens after that plays a big role in whether the folks up north get significant snow. It still appears possible for a big snow inland from PA up through New England.

Reasons for rain as opposed to winter weather...

There are a few big factors working against us here. I'd like to see a stronger area of high pressure area to our north and its location is just too far north for us...a different story for New England. A few things some forecasters tend to forget when faced with a situation like this...it's still early in the season and climatology just doesn't favor a good snow this far south. That doesn't mean it can't happen, but things would be different under the same circumstances if this was January or February. Also, the water temperatures are still a bit on the high side, so any fetch off the water will fill the atmosphere with milder air. One last thing, the storm track really needs to be to our south, with significant development occurring to the south and east. The current forecast allows much milder air to invade the region. Then once the storm really takes shape along the coast, it's too far north for winter weather here. That's why the folks up north will be watching this situation very closely.

Beyond the storm...

After the storm departs, high winds will usher in very cold air Sunday afternoon despite a return to sunshine. The chilly air will stick around early next week, with some moderation by Wednesday. The next potential storm could affect the area by next weekend. Stay tuned...