The weekend looks like a rather cloudy one, but it will be turning milder...especially on Sunday. A cold front approaching from the west will be the next main weather-maker, producing showers to finish the weekend. Ahead of the front, temperatures could jump above 60. Then cooler air heads into the Mid-Atlantic, arriving in time for Christmas Eve.
The storm for Christmas is off...
The potential storm that was showing up on various models has undergone some changes on the data over the last few runs. It still appears an area of low pressure will develop along the coast late Tuesday into early Wednesday, but move quickly out to sea...with its only impact being felt in extreme eastern North Carolina and possibly the tip of southeastern Virginia. So Metro Richmond and all of central Virginia should enjoy sunshine for the holiday, with temperatures mainly in the 40s.
Unsettled weather later next week, but when exactly?
All indications are there will be some unsettled weather later in the week, but exactly when is still in question. The computer models are having a hard time ejecting energy out of an upper level trough in the Southwest and the timing is key. The GFS (American) model threatens our area with rain on Thursday, with a second wave getting suppressed to our south...followed by a more significant system on Sunday 12/30. The European model holds off most of the deep moisture until Friday, with another wave coming in Saturday afternoon. It certainly appears that moisture may come in several waves and based on the upper level pattern, I wouldn't be surprised to see some arrive late Wednesday into Thursday. That may be followed by a break, with another shot at precipitation over the weekend.
How does the New Year come in?
Again, there is some disagreement amongst the longer range models, with the GFS briefly bringing in some cooler air to finish 2007, then warming us up on the 1st. The European is much milder the last couple of days of the year, and agrees with building the ridge over the Southeast to keep us rather warm to wring in the new year. We shall see...
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