We've enjoyed some terrific weather to finish out the month and it will likely go down as the warmest October on record in Richmond, surpassing the old mark in 1985. A mild start to November is on the way as well. Temperatures in Central Virginia will reach the low 70s on Thursday, but a cold front will be heading in from the west. This front won't be able to produce any rain, but will bring cooler air to the region on Friday. There will also be some gusty breezes to finish the work week, particularly along the coast. This will be due to a pretty strong pressure gradient between high pressure building to our north and Tropical Storm Noel (which may be extratropical by Saturday) tracking well east of the Mid-Atlantic coast.
The weekend and next week...
The weekend looks very nice for early November, with high pressure in control. There will be plenty of sunshine, with afternoon highs in the lower 60s and overnight lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. The current dry spell should last through much of the week. Another cold front will slide through on Tuesday. Ahead of the front, temperatures could approach 70 degrees...with much cooler air following the front. Our computer forecast models are showing the potential for a decent shot for a cool to chilly rain later in the week (November 9-10).
The longer range...
Long range data shows upper level ridging over the east during the period November 12-14. That means temperatures will likely be back above average. Beyond that, we're in more of a zonal flow for much of mid-November. If that verifies, we can expect relatively mild to seasonable conditions, with brief intrusions of cooler air.
The winter outlook...
We're getting close to that time of the year. I'm busy preparing my 7th annual Winter Outlook and will be presenting it the week of November 19th. More details to come. In the mean time, there's a lot of talk about a mild winter due to La Nina. In coming posts, I'll talk about what La Nina is and what it could mean for the winter ahead.
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
The dry pattern is back...
Halloween 2007 will be a winner across the Mid-Atlantic with plenty of sunshine and mild air. Temperatures here in the Metro area should reach the low 70s. And the milder weather will stick around for the first day of November, before a cold front brings readings back to near 60 degrees Friday afternoon.
Tropical Storm Noel...
Noel will make a quick right hand turn and head north of Cuba, passing just east of Florida. South Florida has been experiencing some strong winds due to the pressure gradient between the storm and high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic. All of the hurricane models keep Noel east of the coast and travelling into the North Atlantic by the weekend. As it passes well east of the Virginia coast, we could feel some gusty breezes on Friday, the result of the pressure gradient that will develop between the storm and a new area of high pressure building to our north by the end of the week.
This weekend and beyond...
The dry weather looks to continue through early next week. Temperatures will be close to seasonal averages over the weekend, with readings in the low to mid 60s during the day and upper 30s to low 40s at night. The next cold front due to approach late Tuesday into early Wednesday could usher in some decent chilly air for later next week. Stay tuned...
Tropical Storm Noel...
Noel will make a quick right hand turn and head north of Cuba, passing just east of Florida. South Florida has been experiencing some strong winds due to the pressure gradient between the storm and high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic. All of the hurricane models keep Noel east of the coast and travelling into the North Atlantic by the weekend. As it passes well east of the Virginia coast, we could feel some gusty breezes on Friday, the result of the pressure gradient that will develop between the storm and a new area of high pressure building to our north by the end of the week.
This weekend and beyond...
The dry weather looks to continue through early next week. Temperatures will be close to seasonal averages over the weekend, with readings in the low to mid 60s during the day and upper 30s to low 40s at night. The next cold front due to approach late Tuesday into early Wednesday could usher in some decent chilly air for later next week. Stay tuned...
Thursday, October 25, 2007
Finally RAIN!
A good deluge of rain today was much needed, after over 5 weeks without any significant precipitation. Rainfall tallies between 1 and 2 inches were common Wednesday and Wednesday night over Central Virginia, with more to come. I expect occasional showers (some with heavy rain) to continue Thursday and Friday. A plume of tropical moisture extends from the Bahamas and western Caribbean northward into the Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, a cold front settled to our south late Wednesday evening, with temperatures lowering into the 50s and lower 60s. This front will drift back north by Friday and we could see another decent slug of rain later Friday into the early morning hours of Saturday. That will be pushed away by the next cold front.
Drying out over the weekend...
That front will help to bring a dry and pleasantly cool air mass to Virginia on Sunday, and will stick around into the middle of next week. So the big question is will we enter a wetter period or revert back to the dryness? The longer range charts show that we might return to a dry spell, although there isn't enough evidence to draw conclusions about the early part of November just yet. Stay tuned...
Drying out over the weekend...
That front will help to bring a dry and pleasantly cool air mass to Virginia on Sunday, and will stick around into the middle of next week. So the big question is will we enter a wetter period or revert back to the dryness? The longer range charts show that we might return to a dry spell, although there isn't enough evidence to draw conclusions about the early part of November just yet. Stay tuned...
Friday, October 19, 2007
Some rain, but not enough...
We finally got some measurable rain in the Metro Richmond area today, but it wasn't much...averaging only about 0.10". The drought is classified as "severe" to "extreme" from north to south across our area. We are now just above 6 inches below average precipitation for the year officially at RIC, but the more important stat is that we are more than 5 inches below average since September 1st!
The coming week...
The dry conditions will be back with us throughout the next several days, as high pressure builds over the Mid-Atlantic. The next rain chances will come by mid-next week, as a potent area of low pressure aloft develops over the Central U.S. Based on the latest computer model data, it appears this will keep any significant rain well to our west, but the general flow will import more moisture, so clouds and at least a few showers should be over the state, especially Wednesday and Thursday. As this system lifts northward, a front will likely cross the Mid-Atlantic before next weekend.
More dryness to finish the month?
Behind that front, the upper flow flattens on all of our longer range data, and it appears that a rather zonal (west to east) flow or developing Eastern ridge will be the rule heading into early November. This means our temperatures should remain above average until further notice.
The coming week...
The dry conditions will be back with us throughout the next several days, as high pressure builds over the Mid-Atlantic. The next rain chances will come by mid-next week, as a potent area of low pressure aloft develops over the Central U.S. Based on the latest computer model data, it appears this will keep any significant rain well to our west, but the general flow will import more moisture, so clouds and at least a few showers should be over the state, especially Wednesday and Thursday. As this system lifts northward, a front will likely cross the Mid-Atlantic before next weekend.
More dryness to finish the month?
Behind that front, the upper flow flattens on all of our longer range data, and it appears that a rather zonal (west to east) flow or developing Eastern ridge will be the rule heading into early November. This means our temperatures should remain above average until further notice.
Thursday, October 11, 2007
Still no significant rain in sight...
While the weather has been somewhat "quiet," there's a lot to talk about these days. The lack of rain has really become a major issue across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, as drought conditions are expected to continue well into the future. In fact, the drought is now characterized as extreme in Southern Virginia, and exceptional across parts of the Carolinas extending west into the Tennessee Valley. Here in downtown Richmond, we have now gone 27 days without measurable rain. The airport had .01" on October 5th, and that is the only measurable rain in the metro area since September 14th. September's rainfall was about 3" below average here and if you're wondering, the driest October on record was in 2000, when we recorded just .01".
Record temperatures this past week...
The high temperature of 95 degrees on Tuesday tied for the 3rd hottest October day on record in Richmond. The top five are as follows:
#1 99 degrees (October 6, 1941)
#2 97 degrees (October 5, 1941)
#3 95 degrees (October 9, 2007, October 7, 1941 and October 8, 1941)
It's interesting to note that the other days in the top five were all in 1941, which happens to be the driest October on record.
What's on the way...
The weekend will be dry and seasonably cool, with afternoon highs in the upper 60s and low 70s and overnight lows well down into the 40s. In fact, some rural communities may bottom out in the upper 30s during the early morning hours. I really don't see an end to the dry conditions anytime soon. Our longer range charts show the possibility of an onshore flow developing mid-week, which could bring a little more moisture, but I won't hold my breath. High pressure re-takes control and the dry weather could easily continue into the following weekend (October 20-21).
In the longer range...
NOAA issued their inital winter outlook this week, and it calls for above average temperatures across much of the country during the period December through February. It also states drier than average conditions may cause the drought to persist over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. A weak to moderate La Nina event is expected and I'll be talking more about this in future posts, leading to my 7th Annual Winter Outlook, which will be issued in mid-November.
The tropics are hanging on...
There hasn't been much action in the tropics lately, but Tropical Depression #15 developed in the Central Atlantic on Thursday. Keep in mind, the Atlantic season officially continues until November 30th.
Record temperatures this past week...
The high temperature of 95 degrees on Tuesday tied for the 3rd hottest October day on record in Richmond. The top five are as follows:
#1 99 degrees (October 6, 1941)
#2 97 degrees (October 5, 1941)
#3 95 degrees (October 9, 2007, October 7, 1941 and October 8, 1941)
It's interesting to note that the other days in the top five were all in 1941, which happens to be the driest October on record.
What's on the way...
The weekend will be dry and seasonably cool, with afternoon highs in the upper 60s and low 70s and overnight lows well down into the 40s. In fact, some rural communities may bottom out in the upper 30s during the early morning hours. I really don't see an end to the dry conditions anytime soon. Our longer range charts show the possibility of an onshore flow developing mid-week, which could bring a little more moisture, but I won't hold my breath. High pressure re-takes control and the dry weather could easily continue into the following weekend (October 20-21).
In the longer range...
NOAA issued their inital winter outlook this week, and it calls for above average temperatures across much of the country during the period December through February. It also states drier than average conditions may cause the drought to persist over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. A weak to moderate La Nina event is expected and I'll be talking more about this in future posts, leading to my 7th Annual Winter Outlook, which will be issued in mid-November.
The tropics are hanging on...
There hasn't been much action in the tropics lately, but Tropical Depression #15 developed in the Central Atlantic on Thursday. Keep in mind, the Atlantic season officially continues until November 30th.
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