Still no significant rain in sight...

While the weather has been somewhat "quiet," there's a lot to talk about these days. The lack of rain has really become a major issue across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, as drought conditions are expected to continue well into the future. In fact, the drought is now characterized as extreme in Southern Virginia, and exceptional across parts of the Carolinas extending west into the Tennessee Valley. Here in downtown Richmond, we have now gone 27 days without measurable rain. The airport had .01" on October 5th, and that is the only measurable rain in the metro area since September 14th. September's rainfall was about 3" below average here and if you're wondering, the driest October on record was in 2000, when we recorded just .01".

Record temperatures this past week...

The high temperature of 95 degrees on Tuesday tied for the 3rd hottest October day on record in Richmond. The top five are as follows:

#1 99 degrees (October 6, 1941)
#2 97 degrees (October 5, 1941)
#3 95 degrees (October 9, 2007, October 7, 1941 and October 8, 1941)

It's interesting to note that the other days in the top five were all in 1941, which happens to be the driest October on record.

What's on the way...

The weekend will be dry and seasonably cool, with afternoon highs in the upper 60s and low 70s and overnight lows well down into the 40s. In fact, some rural communities may bottom out in the upper 30s during the early morning hours. I really don't see an end to the dry conditions anytime soon. Our longer range charts show the possibility of an onshore flow developing mid-week, which could bring a little more moisture, but I won't hold my breath. High pressure re-takes control and the dry weather could easily continue into the following weekend (October 20-21).

In the longer range...

NOAA issued their inital winter outlook this week, and it calls for above average temperatures across much of the country during the period December through February. It also states drier than average conditions may cause the drought to persist over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. A weak to moderate La Nina event is expected and I'll be talking more about this in future posts, leading to my 7th Annual Winter Outlook, which will be issued in mid-November.

The tropics are hanging on...

There hasn't been much action in the tropics lately, but Tropical Depression #15 developed in the Central Atlantic on Thursday. Keep in mind, the Atlantic season officially continues until November 30th.