A great Halloween!

We've enjoyed some terrific weather to finish out the month and it will likely go down as the warmest October on record in Richmond, surpassing the old mark in 1985. A mild start to November is on the way as well. Temperatures in Central Virginia will reach the low 70s on Thursday, but a cold front will be heading in from the west. This front won't be able to produce any rain, but will bring cooler air to the region on Friday. There will also be some gusty breezes to finish the work week, particularly along the coast. This will be due to a pretty strong pressure gradient between high pressure building to our north and Tropical Storm Noel (which may be extratropical by Saturday) tracking well east of the Mid-Atlantic coast.

The weekend and next week...

The weekend looks very nice for early November, with high pressure in control. There will be plenty of sunshine, with afternoon highs in the lower 60s and overnight lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. The current dry spell should last through much of the week. Another cold front will slide through on Tuesday. Ahead of the front, temperatures could approach 70 degrees...with much cooler air following the front. Our computer forecast models are showing the potential for a decent shot for a cool to chilly rain later in the week (November 9-10).

The longer range...

Long range data shows upper level ridging over the east during the period November 12-14. That means temperatures will likely be back above average. Beyond that, we're in more of a zonal flow for much of mid-November. If that verifies, we can expect relatively mild to seasonable conditions, with brief intrusions of cooler air.

The winter outlook...

We're getting close to that time of the year. I'm busy preparing my 7th annual Winter Outlook and will be presenting it the week of November 19th. More details to come. In the mean time, there's a lot of talk about a mild winter due to La Nina. In coming posts, I'll talk about what La Nina is and what it could mean for the winter ahead.