Severe Thunderstorm Watch South of Richmond Until 9:00 P.M.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect south of Richmond (generally south of I-64), from Chesterfield County down into North Carolina, until 9:00 P.M. Developing thunderstorms could produce torrential downpours, damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and hail up to 1.5" in diameter.

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Severe Thunderstorm Watch Until 8 P.M.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for Central and Eastern Virginia down into North Carolina until 8 P.M. Strong thunderstorms developing over the region may produce torrential downpours, hail and damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph.

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Mike's Weekend Getaway

This weekend's outlook across the region:

VIRGINIA BEACH

SATURDAY: Partly to mostly sunny...HIGH around 90
SUNDAY: A mix of sun and clouds with a few scattered thunderstorms...HIGH around 90

OUTER BANKS

SATURDAY: Partly sunny, a scattered thunderstorm or two...HIGH in the mid 80s
SUNDAY: Partly sunny, a few scattered thunderstorms...HIGH in the mid 80s

THE MOUNTAINS

SATURDAY: Partly sunny with a few scattered afternoon thunderstorms...HIGH in the low to mid 80s
SUNDAY: Lots of clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms around...HIGH in the low to mid 80s

WASHINGTON, D.C.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny, an isolated late day thunderstorm possible...HIGH around 90
SUNDAY: A mix of clouds and sun with a few scattered thunderstorms...HIGH around 90

RALEIGH/DURHAM, N.C.

SATURDAY: Partly to mostly sunny...HIGH around 90
SUNDAY: Partly sunny with an isolated thunderstorm or two...HIGH in the low 90s

Hurricane Dolly Making Landfall...

As of midday, the eyewall of Hurricane Dolly is crossing South Padre Island in South Texas. While it has been meandering the last couple of hours, it is expected to move onshore during the afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph, although those winds are in a small core near the center over the extreme southern part of Texas.

Notice on the wind speed probabilities that the main effect from Dolly will be limited to the extreme southern part of Texas. Dolly is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches, with isolated amounts near 20 inches over South Texas and Northeast Mexico over the next couple of days. This will likely cause widespread flooding. Isolated tornadoes are possible over South Texas through tonight.

A developing ridge over the western United States should force the storm on a more westward track as it gradually weakens over the next 24 hours.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Until 8 P.M.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for most of Central and Eastern Virginia until 8:00 P.M. Strong storms developing over the region could produce damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, along with hail. The watch area includes Richmond, the Tri-Cities, Williamsburg, Emporia, Farmville and Hampton Roads.

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Tropical Update--Tuesday Afternoon

The main action in the tropics is Dolly, which is expected to make landfall as a hurricane along the Gulf Coast early tomorrow morning. Here's the latest on the various systems:

CRISTOBAL: The storm has strengthened a bit over the last 24 hours, but it has passed north of the Gulf Stream into cooler waters and therefore is expected to weaken shortly, while transitioning to an extratropical cyclone. It is now moving quickly to the northeast and will likely turn to the northeast around a subtropical ridge in the Central Atlantic. Cristobal may turn to the southeast due to an approaching trough, before it eventually dissipates.



DOLLY: Dolly continues to show signs of strengthening with a better defined outflow. It is expected to become a hurricane shortly, with landfall expected to be early tomorrow morning (see the various computer model forecast tracks on the map below). The core of the storm is expected to pass near the US/Mexico border, but effects will be felt a ways out from the center. As of early Tuesday afternoon, tropical storm force winds extend outward 160 miles from the center. Rainfall amounts are expected to be in the 6 to 10 inch range over much of South Texas and Northeast Mexico over the next few days, with isolated amounts potentially approaching 15 inches. With a ridge building to the north, the storm should turn to the west over Mexico after landfall.





















TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC: The rather large wave in the Eastern Atlantic is still well-defined and is near the Cape Verde Islands. Development is still possible over the next couple of days.

The Tropics Are Heating Up...

There is quite a bit of action in the tropics right now. Bertha is gone and Cristobal is heading out into the open waters of the Atlantic, away from the coast...but now attention is turning to Dolly and a potential new system emerging off the coast of Africa. Here's the lowdown:

CRISTOBAL is located well off the NC/VA coast at tropical storm strength. Its intensity could increase slightly over the next 24 hours and could be close to hurricane strength before reaching cooler waters. It should ride just north of a subtropical ridge in the Atlantic. A new trough closing in on it may cause a turn to the southeast, but it is expected to dissipate over the open waters in about 4-5 days.

DOLLY is the most intriguing system, now moving into the western Gulf. It is expected to strengthen and become a hurricane in the next day or two, before reaching the southern coast of Texas or northern coast of Mexico by Wednesday morning. The storm is moving pretty quickly to the west-northwest at 18 mph. Tropical storm force winds extend outward 175 miles from the center. A Hurricane Watch is posted on the Texas Coast from Mexico up to Port O'Connor and warnings are likely to be issued later tonight.
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OTHER ACTION: A large, well-defined tropical wave is located just inland over extreme western Africa, set to emerge into the Atlantic. This system has the potential for some development over the next couple of days and will be monitored, as it could eventually become a tropical depression or tropical storm.

Mike's Weekend Getaway...

If you're heading out of town this weekend, here's my Weekend Getaway forecast:

THE BEACHES

SATURDAY: Partly sunny...HIGH in the mid 80s
SUNDAY: Partly sunny...HIGH near 90

THE MOUNTAINS

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny...HIGH in the mid 80s
SUNDAY: A mix of sun and clouds with afternoon showers & thunderstorms...HIGH in the mid 80s

WASHINGTON, D.C.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny...HIGH in the low 90s
SUNDAY: Partly sunny with a few scattered late day thunderstorms...HIGH near 90

RALEIGH-DURHAM, N.C.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny...HIGH in the low 90s
SUNDAY: Partly sunny...HIGH in the low to mid 90s

A Few More Scattered Storms...

Thursday will likely bring a few more scattered thunderstorms, particularly across Southside Virginia. The threat for severe weather will be lower though, and any rain over the metro area will likely be widely scattered at best, as a front settles south into North Carolina by the evening. Temperatures will average in the mid to upper 80s through Friday, with readings back in the 90s over the weekend. Our next front will probably produce more thunderstorms later Sunday and Monday. It is summer, after all!

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10 P.M....Main Threat Remains South of Richmond...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 10 P.M. from the Metro Richmond area south. However, I still believe the main threat for any severe storms will be to the south and west of the metro, from the Farmville area down to Emporia, possibly including the Tri-Cities. Damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and hail are possible. Again, I expect a few thunderstorms in the Metro Richmond area tonight, with the main threat for severe weather staying south.

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A Few Thunderstorms Tonight, Strongest South...

A few scattered thunderstorms will be across the region tonight, ahead of an approaching cold front. The extensive cloud cover over the metro today has kept the atmosphere from becoming more unstable and therefore limiting the severe threat. However, to the south and west of Richmond, the air is increasingly unstable and the threat for some stronger storms exists through the evening, with damaging wind gusts and hail possible. While we'll probably see a few storms rumble through the metro, I do not expect an outbreak of severe weather.

Severe Threat Diminishes This Evening, Returns Tomorrow

The main threat of severe weather has diminished over the metro area for the evening. However, a front approaching from the northwest later tomorrow afternoon will bring another threat for severe thunderstorms. Storms that develop in advance of the front may contain strong, damaging winds along with the possibility for hail. The Storm Prediction Center has much of the East Coast in the threat area from North Carolina north to Maine.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9:00 P.M.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for much of central and eastern Virginia until 9 P.M. The watch includes Metro Richmond, the Tri-Cities, Williamsburg and Hampton Roads. Strong storms developing over the region may contain strong wind gusts up to 70 mph and hail.

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2nd Warmest June on Record in Richmond

It certainly was a hot June across the Mid-Atlantic. It seems that day after day, we recorded readings in the mid and upper 90s. The National Weather Service in Wakefield reports that Richmond had an average June temperature of 79.0 degrees, which makes it the 2nd warmest on record (the warmest was in 79.2 in 1943). Norfolk came in at 79.2 degrees, the 3rd warmest on record there (the warmest was 80.1, also in 1943). Records go back to 1880 in Richmond and 1874 in Norfolk.

The average HIGH temperature for the month in Richmond was 91.4, the highest on record. 19 days hit 90 or higher in June and this ranks 2nd for the most 90+ days in June. There were 13 consecutive days with high temperatures of 90+ from June 4-16, which tied 1943 (June 16-28) for the longest such streak for the month. There were 3 days of 100+ (June 7, 8 and 10), which was the most of any June since 1952, when 3 were also recorded. In Norfolk, the average HIGH temperature for the month was 89.3, which was the higest on record (the previous high was 88.8 in 1943). There were 2 days of 100+ (June 7 and 10), which was the most of any June since 1952, when 2 were also recorded.

Rain Chances Increase Through the Holiday Weekend...

Another hot day is on tap for the 4th with increasing humidity, as a south-southwesterly wind flow continues over the area. Afternoon temperatures will average in the low to mid 90s and we might catch a thunderstorm or two late in the day or during the evening. However, the chances are relatively low (about 20%-30% with the best chances north and west of town) as a front inches into the region from the northwest. The rain chances will increase on Saturday and numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely Saturday afternoon and again on Sunday. If you're heading out of town, here's what to expect:

THE BEACHES

Friday---Partly to mostly sunny...HIGH in the low to mid 90s (Wind: S 10-15 mph)
Saturday---A mix of sun and clouds with scattered showers/thunderstorms (40%)...HIGH in the upper 80s (Wind: S 10-15 mph)
Sunday---A mix of clouds and sun, scattered showers/thunderstorms (50%)...HIGH in the mid 80s

THE MOUNTAINS

Friday---Partly sunny early on, then mostly cloudy with a few showers/thunderstorms (40%)...HIGH in the mid 80s (Wind: S/SW 6-12 mph)
Saturday---Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms (60%)...HIGH in the low 80s (Wind: S 6-12 mph)
Sunday---Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms (50%)...HIGH in the low 80s

WASHINGTON, D.C.

Friday---Partly sunny early on, then increasing clouds with a few late showers or thunderstorms (40%)...HIGH around 90 (Wind: SW 6-12 mph)
Saturday---Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms (60%)...HIGH in the low to mid 80s (Wind: SW/E 5-10 mph)
Sunday---Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms around (50%)...HIGH in the low 80s

RALEIGH-DURHAM, N.C.

Friday---Partly sunny, hot and more humid (a 20% risk of a nighttime thunderstorm)...HIGH in the mid 90s (Wind: SW 5-10 mph)
Saturday---A mix of sun and clouds with a few scattered showers and thunderstorms (40%)...HIGH around 90 (Wind: SW 6-12 mph)
Sunday---Lots of clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms (60%)...HIGH in the mid to upper 80s