Tropical Update--Tuesday Afternoon

The main action in the tropics is Dolly, which is expected to make landfall as a hurricane along the Gulf Coast early tomorrow morning. Here's the latest on the various systems:

CRISTOBAL: The storm has strengthened a bit over the last 24 hours, but it has passed north of the Gulf Stream into cooler waters and therefore is expected to weaken shortly, while transitioning to an extratropical cyclone. It is now moving quickly to the northeast and will likely turn to the northeast around a subtropical ridge in the Central Atlantic. Cristobal may turn to the southeast due to an approaching trough, before it eventually dissipates.



DOLLY: Dolly continues to show signs of strengthening with a better defined outflow. It is expected to become a hurricane shortly, with landfall expected to be early tomorrow morning (see the various computer model forecast tracks on the map below). The core of the storm is expected to pass near the US/Mexico border, but effects will be felt a ways out from the center. As of early Tuesday afternoon, tropical storm force winds extend outward 160 miles from the center. Rainfall amounts are expected to be in the 6 to 10 inch range over much of South Texas and Northeast Mexico over the next few days, with isolated amounts potentially approaching 15 inches. With a ridge building to the north, the storm should turn to the west over Mexico after landfall.





















TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC: The rather large wave in the Eastern Atlantic is still well-defined and is near the Cape Verde Islands. Development is still possible over the next couple of days.