Weekend storm coming!

Our weather will be changing rather quickly over the next couple of days, with a big storm projected to affect the region over the weekend. We'll start with possible record warmth again tomorrow, as temperatures soar into the mid 70s (the record high at RIC Airport is 76 degrees, set in 1931). A cold front will then slide through the area by evening. This will cool us off quite a bit on Thursday, and an area of low pressure moving along the front will bring some rain.

The storm comes in Saturday...

Friday looks like a pleasant mid-December day, but then the clouds will increase and thicken on Saturday as a significant storm moves into the Mid-Atlantic. High pressure will slide off the New England coast allowing an east-southeast flow to scour out any substanial cold air. The most likely track of the storm is from the lower Mississippi Valley Saturday morning to the Commonwealth by Sunday morning. The current forecast track is also not favorable for winter precipitation in the Metro Richmond area, so snow lovers should not get excited. In fact, the storm could draw much warmer air aloft well west of the metro, although I think the mountains will probably get some snow. Of course, we're still a couple of days away, so stay tuned for any updates. It's possible the storm track could shift farther north and west, as that certainly has been the trend on the GFS (American) model the last couple of days.

Looking ahead to next week...

A surge of very chilly air will head into town early next week. Some questions arise in the middle of the week, as the European model has a small storm tracking through the region with enough cold air building in from the north to possibly bring some winter precipitation. The GFS, however, is much different. It's still way too early to speculate, and there's just not enough evidence to be concerned at this point. More to come in the next few days...