Wednesday, September 5, 2007

No changes in the Atlantic system today...

We continue to watch the disturbance that is located well off the Southeast coast and about 375 miles west-southwest of Bermuda as of late afternoon. There is a concentration of showers and thunderstorms to the east of the center, along with near gale force winds reported by the hurricane hunters. However, the system has not taken on any tropical or subtropical characteristics as of yet. Upper level winds are somewhat unfavorable for development right now, but are expected to become more favorable over the next couple of days. So don't be surprised if this is a tropical or subtropical storm by the end of the week. If it is named, it would be Gabrielle.

In terms of impact on Central Virginia and the Mid-Atlantic, it all depends on the storm track. Most of the significant rain would likely be on the east side of the center and right now, the forecast track from most of our computer model data takes it right along the Mid-Atlantic coast from the eastern Carolinas up along the Virginia coast and then northeast. As a front approaches our area from the west, it could draw some of the moisture farther inland, so I do expect some showers and thunderstorms on Sunday, with the potential for some rain as early as Saturday evening, mainly east of Richmond. It looks like the whole weather pattern will be evolving very slowly, and the threat for showers and thunderstorms will linger Monday and Tuesday.

Stay tuned for more updates on this developing weather situation...

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