The chill sticks around...

The cool weather is here to stay through the upcoming weekend. Afternoon temperatures will be in the 50s, with overnight lows mainly in the 30s. While we may see a couple of showers pop up later Friday and Friday night, the rain chances will remain somewhat low until the middle of next week. I expect a bit of rain on Wednesday with a cold front moving through. However, what earlier looked to be a shot of decent rain may not pan out. Our long range computer data was showing a storm passing over the Mid-Atlantic, but has now shifted the track well north of us. Nonetheless, we'll hope for some rain during the mid-week period. Ahead of the front, temperatures will be on the rise into the 60s, with more chilly air poised to move into the lower 48 from Canada behind the front. More below average temperatures are likely on the way heading into the week leading up to Thanksgiving.

La Nina...

It's time to start talking about La Nina as we get close to the presentation of my 7th Annual Winter Outlook. La Nina is probably the main feature most forecasters are focusing on heading into this upcoming winter. So you ask, what is La Nina? It is defined as cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean that affect pressure and weather patterns around the globe. It is the opposite of the familiar El Nino. Some typical impacts in La Nina seasons include wet and cool weather in the Northwest and milder than average in the Southeast. However, I caution that those are generalizations. Every situation is different and the strength and timing of the La Nina episode can have varying effects. Most climate model data shows a weak to moderate La Nina continuing over the next few months, but potentially weaking in the latter portion of the winter. A milder than average forecast would certainly be in line with the recent outlook issued by NOAA, as pictured here.