A Tornado Watch is in effect for our entire area until 3 A.M. Storms moving into the area from the west may pack quite a punch during the late evening. The main issue will come from potentially strong, damaging winds. The Storm Prediction Center has posted the watch because there is the possibility of isolated tornadoes due to strong shear in the atmosphere.
What's going on...
A strong storm is moving northeast through the Ohio Valley (to our northwest). Its trailing cold front is running into a rather warm air mass over VA and the Carolinas. One batch of showers and thunderstorms is moving across VA now, with a second line to follow from the west later this evening. Gusty winds have prevailed at times throughout the day and stronger winds aloft could be brought to the surface by any of the developing thunderstorms.
The meteorological factors:
This is different from the traditional lines of thunderstorms that become severe and produce strong winds and hail in the spring and summer. In this situation, there is limited instability in the atmosphere and the timing of the front is not good (late night/early morning). HOWEVER, there is a strengthening low-level jet (very strong winds just above the surface) and deep shear in the environment. This means there is the threat for damaging wind gusts and possibly the development of a few isolated tornadoes due to the strong twisting of the winds aloft.
The timing:
A few storms could be strong between 8 P.M. and 10 P.M., mainly along and west of I-95. After 10 P.M., this batch will move toward the Middle Peninsula and Northern Neck. The second line (which right now looks like a good squall line as of 7:30) may very well be the one to watch, although we'll have to see how it holds together. The main questions being will it survive the trip east and will the first round of rain stabilize the environment even more. I still believe the shearing environment could contribute to some late-night wind issues. Stay tuned...
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