May Outlook and Drought Update

The state outlook for the month of May is for near average temperatures and precipitation. The central and southern parts will likely see slightly above average temperatures, while the north and west parts may see above average precipitation. I think the next week or so will produce temperatures above average, with a bit of a cooldown for the middle of the month. The longer range computer models are showing some potential for a couple of decent rain events over the next couple of weeks, possibly continuing the trend started in April (to some extent).

Speaking of April, it was the 3rd wettest on record in Richmond, with 8.32" observed. That is over 5 inches above average! Norfolk came in with 6.37" (10th on the all-time list). Over in Roanoke, 4.94" was observed, 1.33" inches above the April average. Moderate drought conditions continue west of Interstate 95, from Charlottesville south through Farmville to South Hill and Danville. Much of the state still remains in the "abnormally dry" category according to the National Drought Mitigation Center (see map below), although the recent rains certainly have helped to alleviate much worse conditions.

In terms of rainfall for the year so far, here are the stats:
Richmond: 2.15" ABOVE average
Norfolk: 0.87" BELOW average
Roanoke: 3.99" BELOW average

So despite the recent heavy rains in some places, many locations remain below average for the year. We can still use as much rain as we can get going into the hot summer months, when evaporation rates will exceed precipitation.