As new model data continues to stream in, there remain some questions as to how much snow we could get late tonight through Monday morning. Here's the situation...temperatures have lowered into the low and mid 30s tonight and there's even been some sleet in the metro. Readings won't move much during the day, averaging in the mid 30s. The 2nd storm will move northeast along the Carolina coasts while an upper low deepens and moves from Georgia into the Carolinas. The precipitation from this system should begin as rain during the mid-afternoon hours. Strong high pressure is located well to the north, generally centered over the western Great Lakes. This location, while helping to funnel cold air south, will likely enable the strengthening surface flow to produce a bit of a easterly (or east-northeast) component to our wind flow during the late afternoon and early evening. The rain should begin to mix with sleet and even some snow during the early evening, although this east-northeast component could keep the mix of rain and sleet going a bit longer and therefore holding down potential snow accumulation. As the surface low moves farther north, the wind will then turn more northerly and this should enable the changeover to snow. There should be some good bursts of snow overnight into early Monday morning, although I am a little concerned about some drier air getting entrained into the system...another thing to keep an eye on.
Taking these concerns into account, here's my potential accumulation map. There is a lot of potential with this winter storm, and it should be noted that with a quicker changeover, higher totals are certainly possible. On the flip side, a prolonged mixture of precipitation types or dry air getting involved could lessen the amounts...so stay tuned for updates.
Metro Richmond: 3-5 inches
Tri-Cities: 3-5 inches
Williamsburg: 2-4 inches
Northern Neck: 2-4 on the eastern end, 3-6 to the west
West of I-95 from Western Hanover/Goochland north to Fredericksburg and west to Charlottesville: 4-6 inches with locally higher amounts
Farmville: 4-6 inches
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