Tornado Watch in effect for Hampton Roads until 7 A.M.

A Tornado Watch is in effect for the Hampton Roads area down into the eastern Carolinas until 7 A.M. Conditions are favorable for some severe weather to develop overnight.

Tropical Depression #16 in the Caribbean...should become a tropical storm shortly...

Tropical Depression #16 has formed in the Caribbean and is close to tropical storm strength. It is expected to become Tropical Storm Nicole later today. The system is 160 miles south of Havana, Cuba and 370 miles south-southwest of Miami, FL. In Florida, a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Jupiter Inlet south to East Cape Sable and Florida Bay, and for the Florida Keys. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from north of Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet, and north of East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee.
This storm is expected to merge with the front along the East Coast and bring potentially heavy rain to central and eastern Virginia tomorrow night into Thursday. Stay tuned...

Tropical Storm Igor forms...

Tropical Storm Igor has formed in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the southernmost Cape Verde Islands...

Hermine has made landfall...

Tropical Storm Hermine has made landfall as a strong tropical storm over northeastern Mexico, and is producing very heavy rain north into southern Texas...

TD #10 now Tropical Storm Hermine and heading toward land...

Tropical Depression #10 is now Tropical Storm Hermine, packing maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from from La Cruz, Mexico to Port O'Connor, TX and a Hurricane Watch is posted from Rio San Fernando, Mexico north to Baffin Bay, TX. The center of Hermine is moving north-northwest at about 13 mph and is expected to approach the coast of northeastern Mexico or extreme southern Texas later tonight. Additional strengthening is forecast, and it's possible Hermine could reach hurricane strength before landfall. As of midday, tropical storm force winds extend outward 105 miles from the center.

More action in the tropics...

Tropical Depression #10 formed late Sunday evening in the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The system has maximum sustained winds of 30 mph and some strengthening is expected. If it is able to reach tropical storm status, its name would be Hermine. The depression is moving to the north, but is expected to take a left turn and be near the coast of northeastern Mexico early Tuesday morning. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect along the coast of Mexico from Tampico to the mouth of the Rio Grande. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall of 4 to 8 inches over northeastern Mexico into south Texas, with isolated amounts up to 12 inches possible.

Meanwhile, the remnants of Gaston are located about 600 miles east of the Leeward Islands. Upper level winds appear to be conducive for some development and its possible it could regenerate into a tropical depression or tropical storm in the next day or two.

Earl update and the rest of the tropics...

Earl continues to move away from the Mid-Atlantic coast and toward southeastern New England. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 80 mph, so Earl is now a minimal hurricane and further weakening is forecast. However, the large circulation will continue to impact southern New England through tonight. Storm surge values of 1-2 feet are still expected at the time of high tide in Virginia, potentially causing minor flooding along southern portions of Chesapeake Bay. Significant swells will continue to bring a high risk of rip currents, along with high surf along the Mid-Atlantic coast.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Fiona is weakening (max sustained winds at 45 mph), with the center expected to be near Bermuda early Saturday morning. What was once Gaston is a disorganized area of thunderstorms, but regeneration into a tropical depression is possible over the weekend. And finally, an area of low pressure has developed along yet another tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands. This system has the potential for some development over the weekend as well.

So the tropics remain very busy, which is appropriate since we are now entering the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Late night update on Earl: Passing east of the Outer Banks

Late night update:

As of midnight, the center of Earl is passing east of the Outer Banks. The storm continues to weaken, with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph. However, it remains a large and dangerous storm, and will batter the Outer Banks during the wee hours of the morning with strong winds and torrential downpours. Gusty, tropical storm force winds are possible at Virginia Beach, with a few bands of showers as well. As the storm pulls away from the coast, conditions will gradually improve later this morning. Earl will then set its sights on southeastern New England, where a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Massachusetts and Rhode Island coastlines.

Flooding remains a concern along the Virginia coast today, as a storm surge of 1-3 feet is possible during high tide along the southern portion of Chesapeake Bay. Minor to moderate flooding is possible and significant swells will bring a high risk of strong rip currents. High surf is expected along the coast, with large battering waves potentially peaking at 15 to 20 feet, which may cause significant beach erosion, particularly from Virginia Beach south.

Earl skirts by the Outer Banks tonight...

Thursday afternoon update:

Hurricane Earl has weakened slightly this afternoon, as data from the hurricane hunters indicates maximum sustained winds are down to 125 mph. This makes Earl a category three storm, still a major hurricane. It remains a dangerous and large storm. The center is tracking north at 18 mph and should pass east of the Outer Banks of North Carolina later tonight. Earl is expected to continue its right turn to the north-northeast later tonight, as it encounters the mid-latitude westerlies.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect along the North Carolina coast, where the worst is expected tonight. Tropical storm force winds should arrive by evening along the Outer Banks, with hurricane force winds potentially brushing the coast overnight. A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch remain in effect for the Virginia coast northward to New Jersey. Virginia Beach may see some tropical storm force winds overnight, as these winds still extend outward up to 230 miles from the center. The outer rain bands and a storm surge of 1-3 feet remain a threat to the southern portion of Chesapeake Bay, where minor to moderate flooding is possible. Significant swells will bring a high risk of strong rip currents through tomorrow. The combination of the storm surge and high surf (large breaking waves are expected to peak at 14 to 18 feet) may cause significant beach erosion along the coast, particularly from Virginia Beach south.

Earl will then set its sights on southeastern New England, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect along the Massachusetts and Rhode Island coastlines.

Hurricane Earl threatens the Outer Banks, with minimal impacts expected along the Virginia coast…

Hurricane Earl is a bit stronger as of late Wednesday night, packing maximum sustained winds of 140 mph. This makes Earl a category 4 storm once again. As I mentioned during the afternoon, the expected turn was already showing up and this trend has continued through the night. This increases my confidence that the storm will stay east of the coastline and turn away from the Mid-Atlantic after making its closest approach to Cape Hatteras later this evening. Earl is currently moving to the north-northwest, clearly influenced by a ridge building to its east over the Atlantic. The storm will continue its turn to the north and then northeast, as a strong trough moving across the Great Lakes helps to push it along and increase its forward speed (see the forecast models below). A Hurricane Warning remains in effect along the North Carolina coast, with a Hurricane Watch for the Virginia, Maryland and Delaware coastline. A Hurricane Watch is also in effect up in New England, along the Massachusetts coast, including Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket. Earl is expected to threaten parts of southern New England later Friday.

WHAT TO EXPECT

For Richmond and central Virginia, I do not expect any impact from Earl. However, despite the fact I believe Earl will pass well east of the Virginia coast, Hampton Roads and the Eastern Shore probably won’t escape the rather large circulation of the storm. Hurricane force winds currently extend outward from the center about 90 miles, which won’t be an issue for Virginia Beach if the storm continues on the forecast track. However, tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center 230 miles and may impact the immediate coast later tonight and early Friday morning, along with some of the outer rain bands. Assuming no dramatic change to the track takes place, the only place I see getting potential hurricane force winds is the Outer Banks, particularly the southern portion. So this is likely to be a glancing blow, and hopefully many coastal residents will breathe a sigh of relief as the storm quickly moves northeast Friday morning.

The worst of the storm will hit the Outer Banks later today and tonight. Any impacts for Hampton Roads and the Virginia coast will be later tonight into early Friday morning. The major issue will be the potential for minor to moderate flooding over the Tidewater region, along Chesapeake Bay. Storm surge values are expected to peak at 1.5 to 3 feet during high tide Friday afternoon. Significant swells will bring a high risk of strong rip currents through Friday. The combination of the storm surge and high surf (large breaking waves are expected to peak at 14 to 18 feet) may cause significant beach erosion along the coast, particularly from Virginia Beach south.

Believe it or not, there’s plenty of other action in the tropics (see the satellite imagery below). Tropical Storm Fiona has turned to the northwest, away from the northern Leeward Islands. The environment ahead of the storm is not favorable, and Fiona may very well weaken and dissipate in the wake of Earl. Meanwhile, the newest storm on the map is Gaston. Gaston is out in the eastern Atlantic and is a minimal tropical storm at this time. However, it is quite possible that it strengthens into a hurricane by the weekend. There is some conflicting data regarding Gaston, and we’ll just have to keep a close eye on it for the next several days. Since its track is a bit farther south than Earl or Fiona, it certainly has some potential to be a major player down the road. Stay tuned…

Hurricane Earl update and the rest of the tropics...

Earl is still a major hurricane (cat 3) with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph. It is over 700 miles from Cape Hatteras and the computer data continues to show a turn, keeping the storm east of the coastline. Signs of the turn are already showing up, and the next 12-24 hours will be critical to determining the exact track. Earl's rather large circulation means at least tropical storm force winds for the Outer Banks up to VA Beach late tomorrow night into very early Friday. A hurricane warning is in effect along the NC coast and a hurricane watch is up for the VA/MD/DE coasts. A few rain bands will likely move into extreme SE VA late tomorrow night. As for Richmond and central VA, we should not feel any effects from Earl.

Fiona may produce tropical storm conditions over the northern Leeward Islands this afternoon, but should then move north over the open waters of the Atlantic and may weaken in the wake of Earl.

A new storm is on the scene today...Tropical Depression #9. This is over the eastern Atlantic and is expected to become a tropical storm very soon. It's name would be Gaston...yes, you heard right...Gaston!