Big winter storm to affect the entire region Friday night and Saturday...

LATE NIGHT UPDATE: The evening computer runs are very consistent. The forecast stands with big snows on the way for many. See below...

All of our computer model data is now coming in line with the storm for Saturday. While it will be a big one, we're still not sure on accumulation amounts for the Metro Richmond area and points south and east, due to the fact that there will be a fine line between a mix of wintry precipitation and heavy snow over our area. The key will be a possible surge of milder air aloft as the storm deepens just off the North Carolina & Virginia coasts. It doesn't appear this surge will move very far inland, which means the Metro Richmond area could end up with a lot of snow. However, just a few miles could be the difference between a foot of snow and significantly less.

Regardless, this looks like it will be a memorable snowstorm for central Virignia and much of the Mid-Atlantic. The top two December snowstorms on record in Richmond are 17.2" (December 22-23, 1908) and 10.4" (December 12-14, 1917).

Here's the timeline for the metro area:

Friday night: Precipitation begins during the evening and continues overnight as a mix of wintry weather types
Saturday morning: Mainly snow and sleet
Saturday afternoon: Snow, possibly heavy at times

As colder air gets drawn south and east during Saturday, we should see most places change over to snow. The only exception will likely be right along the coast and extreme southeastern Virginia, although they may get into a wintry mix later in the day.

As for potential accumulations, here are my thoughts:

Metro Richmond down to the Tri-Cities: 6-10 inches, although this all depends on where that fine thin line sets up and as usual, we'll be right near it! 12 inches are certainly a possibility for the western suburbs of Richmond
North and West (Goochland/western Hanover going west and Ashland going north to Fredericksburg): 12 inches +
Northern Neck/Middle Peninsula: 2-4 inches near the coast, 5-10 inches well inland
Wakefield down to Emporia: 3-6 inches

Keep in mind these are potential acccumulations. If mixed precipitation occurs longer than expected, accumulations will be lower. One thing is for sure, I think places west of Richmond will see a very heavy snowfall!

Stay tuned for updates...