Monster storm could bring a memorable December snowfall to the Mid-Atlantic...

Everything is on target for big snow across parts of the Mid-Atlantic tonight through tomorrow night. It will begin as a light mixture of wintry precipitation from south to north over central Virginia and then pick up later tonight. A bit of milder air aloft will be responsible for the mixture. However, to the west and north of Richmond, it should be mainly snow overnight and that's the area that will end up with the highest totals when all is said and done. In the metro area, sleet and snow will be mixed during the early morning hours, but will likely change to snow, which could be heavy at times. Locations east of I-95 and especially south of I-64 towards the coast will have more liquid precipitation and so accumulations will be lower.

The key to precipitation type is a surge of milder air aloft that will cause the mixture of precipitation. How far inland this line moves and sets up will ultimately determine accumulations. There will be a fine line between the mixture and heavy snow, and this line may be very close to Richmond at least through tomorrow morning. Eventually it will shift south and east, causing a change to snow for much of the region. The only exception will probably be coastal areas and extreme southeast Virginia, where they may see a mix or changeover late in the day or at night.

Even with the mixed precipitation early on, I expect a heavy snowfall for much of the Metro Richmond area and places west of I-95 will really see a lot. This event has the potential to be historical here and across the Mid-Atlantic. It's interesting to note the top two December snowfalls on record in Richmond are 17.2" (December 22-23, 1908) and 10.4" (December 12-14, 1917).

Here's what I expect in terms of accumulation:

Metro Richmond to the Tri-Cities: 6-10 inches (higher west, lower east of I-95 and down near the Tri-Cities)
North and West (Short Pump/Goochland/western Hanover west to Charlottesville, north to Fredericksburg and southwest to Farmville): 12 inches or more
Northern Neck/Middle Peninsula: 2-4 inches along the coast, 5-10 inches well inland
Emporia northeast through Wakefield and up to Charles City: 3-6 inches