Early Friday morning update...

The model data has been right on with the rapid warming aloft. This means most of the precipitation will be in the liquid form over our area. The only issue for the morning commute will be the temperature and the continued threat of freezing rain. I'm not sure this will be a significant on roads in the metro as the temp will be in the low 30s but increasing traffic and the increasing sun angle (yes, as I mentioned earlier this has an impact even when the sun is not out) should keep icy spots at a minimum. However, beware during the morning commute on bridges and elevated surfaces, which are the first to freeze. Areas north and west will have a more significant risk of icing, and I'm talking mainly western Goochland up through NW Hanover and Caroline and points north and west. This area could see freezing rain linger through the morning hours. There could be up to 1/4 inch of ice accumulation on trees and power lines, so that could certainly cause some problems.

Temps should be rising above freezing by about 9 A.M. in the metro, so just periods of light rain are likely throughout the day. In terms of amounts, the data favors about .25", maybe a little more in some locations. Here's my updated breakdown of what to expect in your neighborhood:

METRO RICHMOND/TRI-CITIES/FARMVILLE/NORTHERN NECK: Freezing rain early on should change to rain around 8 A.M. or 9 A.M. Icy spots will be at a minimum, mainly bridges, elevated surfaces and secondary roads. Be careful on decks and walkways. Some icing on trees and power lines (up to 1/10")

GOOCHLAND/HANOVER/CAROLINE: Freezing rain should change to rain by around 10 A.M. Some icy roads for the AM commute and 1/10" to 2/10" icing possible on trees and power lines.

CHARLOTTESVILLE NORTHEAST TO FREDERICKSBURG: Freezing rain and sleet for the AM commute...freezing rain will continue to be an issue through midday, with temperatures gradually rising just above 32 degrees during the afternoon. Icy roads possible for the AM commute, although major highways should be OK (except bridges and elevated surfaces). Ice accumulation up to 1/4" possible on trees and power lines.