The low level cold air in place is a little stronger than indicated by the models. That means our threat for winter weather tonight is still on track. The data is trending toward more liquid, but it is likely scouring out the cold air too quickly. That being said, there are a few issues to deal with...extremely dry air in place now...an onshore flow that will quickly import milder air, especially aloft...and the lack of significant QPF (precipitation amounts) on the latest model runs.
While the model analysis might try to convince us to change the forecast, I don't think that's the smart move right now. Despite the very dry air in place now, the onshore flow should help to moisten up the lower layers of the atmosphere this evening. I still expect some snow and sleet to develop very late tonight (after midnight). This will likely mix with freezing rain rather quickly, by the morning commute. The key to potential problems is how long the temperature remains at or below freezing. In the metro area, I think the transition to rain will probably happen during the morning commute. Keep in mind, the expected precipitation amounts are expected to be light. With that in mind, there will still be slick spots though, especially on bridges and overpasses. By 9 A.M., we should be just wet...the increasing sun angle (yes, this has an impact even when the sun is not out!) should help to alleviate any further icy problems in the metro. However, north and west of Richmond...in the climatologically favored areas, the colder air will be much harder to dislodge. This region, from western Goochland west to Charlottesville and then northeast to Fredericksburg (including northwest Hanover and Caroline) will likely see a longer period of sleet and freezing rain. So icy problems will continue there well into the morning. By afternoon, everyone should be dealing with periods of mainly light rain.
Here are my thoughts for your neighborhood:
METRO RICHMOND: Snow/sleet develops after midnight, mixes with and changes to freezing rain by around 4 A.M. A light mix of icy precip than changes to rain during the morning commute (8 A.M.-9 A.M.)...accumulation should be light and many icy/slick spots
TRI-CITIES/FARMVILLE: A light mix of snow/sleet/freezing rain develops late tonight (probably after midnight) and changes to just freezing rain for a period of a couple of hours. The changeover to rain should happen by 8 A.M. (some slick spots for the commute)
CHARLOTTSVILLE TO FREDERICKSBURG: A mix of snow and sleet develops late tonight...changes to a mix of sleet and freezing rain by the morning commute...freezing rain could linger through the morning...accumulation of 1-2 inches of snow and sleet possible
NORTHERN NECK: A light mix of snow and sleet develops well after midnight (3 A.M. or so)...mixes with freezing rain and then changes to rain during the commute...accumulation should be light with mainly icy spots on secondary roads
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