Danny...Thursday Midday Update

As of midday, Tropical Storm Danny is now located 550 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, NC. It has moved somewhat erratically to the northwest, but is still expected to turn to the north by tomorrow and then increase its forward speed. A look at the computer model data from the morning runs (below) shows that the suite is in very good agreement, keeping the center of the storm well offshore. The official NHC forecast follows this lead and if this track verifies, central Virginia will experience minimal impact from Danny. The main effect will likely be the onshore flow ahead of the storm, which will increase the available moisture for scattered showers and thunderstorms along a nearly stationary front over the region. The greatest threat will come later tomorrow and tomorrow night. By Saturday, subsidence (sinking air) on the back side of the storm will likely lead to sunshine, although a few isolated showers or thundershowers can't be ruled out.