Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Tropical Storm Danny and the Next Few Days...

As of late Wednesday night, Tropical Storm Danny was located about 675 south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. The storm is packing maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. It is moving northwest at 10 mph and this motion is expected to continue over the next 24 hours (through Thursday evening). The potential exists for further strengthening, and it is possible that Danny becomes a hurricane. The computer data is in good agreement that by late Thursday night and early Friday morning, Danny will turn north and then move parallel to the Eastern seaboard, well off the coast.

Even though the storm's center is expected to remain well away from the coastline, some impacts will likely be felt. Large swells, gusty winds and potentially heavy rainfall could skirt coastal areas later Friday night into Saturday. Inland, over central Virginia including the Richmond area, the effects may not be as significant. The exact track will determine what happens here, as any deviation in the track to the left could mean decent rainfall spreading inland.

As of now, central Virginia will likely be dealing with a few scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. This will be the result of a lingering front over the area and an enhanced onshore flow due to Danny. If the current forecast track verifies, the storm will accelerate as it moves up the coast and we could actually see some drier air moving in by Saturday afternoon as the flow shifts away from onshore. Either way, another front will slide into the region by Sunday morning, so at least some rain chances will linger through the weekend. Drier and somewhat "cooler" air will move into the Mid-Atlantic early next week.

National Hurricane Center official forecast:



















Computer model forecasts for Danny (most recent runs as of late Wednesday evening):

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