Winter storm update...potential snowfall accumulations!

The much anticipated latest winter storm will be moving out of the western Gulf tonight, tracking to the northeast and redeveloping off the Mid-Atlantic coast. As I've mentioned previously, this will not be the same setup as last week's storm, which had Arctic air pouring into the region. This time, milder air will surge in from the south, especially aloft, which will cause a mix of precipitation types for Metro Richmond and locations south and east. The big snowfall winners will be to the north and west, from Charlottesville to DC and Baltimore, where 1-2 feet with locally higher amounts are possible. That's not to say we won't see anything significant here in Richmond. However, we will be right on the dividing line (so what else is new).

Here's the timeline:

Snow and sleet should develop across the region early tomorrow morning. In locations south and east of Richmond, we should see a very quick change to rain. In the city, I expect to see a change to rain during the afternoon, but a couple of inches may accumulate before that happens. Just to the west and north of town, from extreme western Henrico County through eastern Goochland and northeast to Ashland/King William and then over to the Northern Neck, more substanial snow and sleet is likely before a change to rain or even freezing rain a bit later (towards evening). Accumulation amounts will increase rapidly the farther north and west you are. For instance, I see about 8-12 inches of snow and sleet in western Goochland up through southern Caroline and the central/western Northern Neck. With such a strong surge of milder air, I expect even these areas will see a bit of a mix Friday night. However, from Charlottesville to Fredericksburg up to DC, this will likely be mainly a snow event (with some sleet mixed in, especially in Fredericksburg), and they'll likely be measuring the snow with yardstick. 1-2 feet is possible in this region up through central and western Maryland, with some locally higher amounts.

On the other side of the coin, southeastern Virginia will see heavy rain, with 1-3 inches expected and a Flood Watch in place.

Despite a change to rain from the city south and east tomorrow afternoon and evening, as the storm deepens off the coast on Saturday, colder air will take over the area again. This means we'll see a change back to snow for everyone, including coastal areas by afternoon. A couple more inches of accumulation are possible on Saturday, so be prepared! Accumulation amounts are a tough forecast where there will be mixed precipitation, but one thing is for sure, this storm will be a real mess!

Stay tuned for updates...