Friday midday update...

The latest model solutions are trending a bit south and east with the storm track. This is especially true of the NAM, which is inching toward the European solution...but not quite as far off the coast. Often when the NAM starts trending toward the European, it can be a good indicator of what might happen. So what does this mean for potential snowfall in Virginia? The highest amounts will be where the deeper moisture tracks, likely across southern Virginia. In the Metro Richmond area, earlier model runs put us at about .25" liquid...now it's down to around .15"-.20". So while a 2-4 inch snowfall certainly isn't out of the question, the trend would suggest less...maybe 1-3 inches. There may be a pretty sharp cut-off between little to no accumulation...to significant accumulation. I'll have an update this evening, when I will try to pinpoint forecast amounts over the region.