Saturday midday update:
The precipitation is on schedule and the situation hasn't changed much over the last 12 hours. The model solutions continue to show the track well south and east of Metro Richmond. There is still a QPF of about .15"-.20" and the NAM has actually come in line with the GFS on this. The one problem is somewhat warm boundary layer temperatures at the start of the event. Despite many critical temperatures aloft and thicknesses being low enough to support snow, the warmer boundary layer will cause rain or a mix to fall at the start. Eventually everyone should go over to snow, but this will hold down potential accumulation. I still expect a coating to an inch in the Metro Richmond area down toward the Tri-Cities and east to New Kent County. Counties north and west will see little if anything. The focus remains well south and east, where 1-3 inches are possible in a line from Williamsburg to Emporia. There could be a bit more in the interior of extreme southeastern Virginia.
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Mike, we had not seen this website, and commend you for it, as it is very well done. We hope you are doing well and that you are in the process of "landing on your feet." You have a lot to offer whatever organization is lucky enough to hire you.
Take care,
Your friends in the Midwest
Phil and Amanda Koch
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