The newest model runs are finishing up now and the trend clearly continues to push everything south and east of Richmond. The NAM model has virtually taken all of the precipitation out of the metro, while the GFS has .15"-.20" liquid. Normally with such a dramatic shift in the NAM, I would be inclined to toss it out, BUT it has come around to the European solution that has been consistent for many runs now. The European tends to be a superior performer when it comes to winter events along the East Coast and it looks like this case may be no exception.
What to expect...
Come Saturday afternoon/evening, I do expect some light snow or flurries in the Metro Richmond area. Accumulation of a dusting to an inch is possible. North and west of Richmond, you'll be lucky to see flurries...more as a result of the push of Arctic air arriving than the storm moving well off the coast. The area to watch remains well south and east of Richmond. In a line from Williamsburg to Emporia and points south and east, a couple of inches could accumulate by late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. Coastal areas in Hampton Roads will have a mix of rain and snow, eventually changing to snow with some accumulation.
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