As of midday, Tropical Storm Fay is located about 65 miles east-northeast of Havana, Cuba and 70 miles south-southeast of Key West, FL. It is now moving north-northwest at 13 mph, a bit slower than yesterday. This reduction in forward speed is expected to continue through tonight. Fay will be approaching the southwest Florida coast tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds are at 60 mph, with some strengthening likely tonight and Fay will probably be a hurricane before it makes landfall. Therefore, a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the southwest Florida coast from Flamingo to Anna Maria Island. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the east coast of Florida from Cocoa Beach south, including Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Key West. Meanwhile, a Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Florida Mainland east of Flamingo to Card Sound Bridge, and along the Florida West Coast north of Anna Maria to Tarpon Springs.
Across South Florida, general rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with maximum amounts of 10 inches near the Florida Keys. Isolated tornadoes are possible over the Keys and extreme South Florida through the night.
As you can see below, the forecast model suite is coming into some consensus, showing a track through central Florida and up into eastern Georgia by Thursday. After that, there is some disagreement, although the general consensus brings Fay north into eastern Tennessee and Kentucky. This means the core of heavy rain may very well avoid central Virginia. However, a persistent southeast flow developing between the storm and high pressure just to our north will likely increase moisture levels and possibly produce at least some scattered thunderstorms later in the week. Stay tuned...
No comments:
Post a Comment