Fay Update--Very Early Tuesday Morning

Fay is expected to cross the coast of southwest Florida this morning and continue inland over central Florida during the next 12-24 hours. The storm could approach hurricane strength near landfall, but will then weaken as it moves inland. General rainfall amounts over central and southern Florida are expected to range between 4 and 8 inches, with maximum storm totals near 10 inches. Isolated tornadoes are possible throughout the day over central Florida.

As for the storm's future path, the hurricane models show that the steering currents will break down, as a large ridge building over the eastern U.S. will block the storm's northward movement. There is a lot of uncertainty in the model tracks, but for central Virginia, any immediate threat through Friday is clearly lower than earlier runs. Assuming the storm stays down south and over land, it will gradually weaken. However, a persistent southeast flow over the region could lead to widely scattered thunderstorms developing during the afternoon and early evening Friday through Sunday. Also, longer range computer data shows the system could still have an impact on the region early next week, bringing moisture northward. That's still too early to pinpoint, but stay tuned...

Here are nighttime hurricane model plots...