Fay is now over Florida and will move slowly north-northeast across the peninsula through tonight. It should then move back over water near the east coast of northern Florida tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph, but some weakening is likely tonight as the storm remains over land. Then some restrengthening is expected tomorrow as it moves back over water. General rainfall totals over southern and east-central Florida are expected to be between 5 and 10 inches, with some isolated amounts possibly near 15 inches. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the east coast of Florida from north of Ocean Reef to Flager Beach, including Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from north of Flagler Beach to Fernandina Beach.
In terms of Fay's future track, you can clearly see looking at the model suite above that the latest consensus forecast takes the storm back inland over northern FL and southern GA, as a ridge of high pressure to the north blocks its movement up the coast. This means the storm should stay away from central Virginia through the week and the upcoming weekend. However, a persistent onshore flow between Fay and the strong area of high pressure could produce a few widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorm Friday through Sunday. Early next week, if the storm holds together, it could bring moisture to the Mid-Atlantic as the ridge gradually gives way.
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