Tropical Storm Fay is the latest system in the Atlantic, now sitting just south of eastern Cuba as of late afternoon. Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane Watches are in effect across much of Cuba, with a Tropical Storm Watch posted for the Central Bahamas, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph and while the system has weakened slightly, it is expected to gain strength during the next couple of days. Fay is currently moving west, and will be very close to the coast of southern Cuba over the next 24-36 hours, likely moving inland over western Cuba either late Sunday night or Monday as it turns to the north-northwest or even north. This direction change is due to a forecast weakness in a ridge sitting over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The model data is not in agreement on exactly where this turn will take place and how dramatic it will be. Several models are now forecasting a landfall over south/southeastern Florida, while others favor a track along the western Florida coast. It is still too early to tell whether Fay will have an impact on our weather here in Virginia, but it is possible that it could produce some rain here late in the week. We'll just have to continue to monitor its progress and future computer model runs. For now, here's the latest track from the National Hurricane Center... 
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