Happy New Year!

Many thanks go out to the loyal followers of this blog and my web site. I hope you find it all informative and continue to return for your weather information in the new year.

Best wishes to all for a very happy, healthy and prosperous 2009!

Mike

A Cold Rain Coming...

While big snows are impacting the Northeast today, we are just dealing with the clouds, chill and some fog. There may be a spotty shower or two tonight, but for the most part we'll stay rain-free until the second half of the upcoming weekend.

Next storm hits Sunday...

Our next storm will impact the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Sunday. It will be a chilly rain for us, with surface temperatures stuck in the 40s, despite the air aloft being quite mild. Behind this storm, a blast of cold is on tap for Monday and Tuesday. Afternoon temperatures will struggle to get above 40 on Monday, with overnight lows in the 20s and teens. If you don't like the cold, the one positive will be the return of the sun.

The Christmas outlook...

We'll start warming up again on Christmas Eve (into the 50s), but the next front will be approaching from the west, and will likely bring a round of showers into very early Christmas morning. While there may be somewhat cooler air behind the front, the next air mass is not an Arctic air mass, so temperatures should be rather seasonal (upper 40s to low 50s). Beyond the Christmas holiday, we may see some milder air before the New Year arrives...

A Lot of Rain...

Low pressure developing over the Gulf states will track northeast along a cold front sliding through the Mid-Atlantic. That will bring periods of heavy rain to central and eastern Virginia through Thursday night. As colder air inches in from the Ohio Valley, freezing rain may become a concern over the higher elevations well north and west (counties along the Blue Ridge).

The map above shows the National Meteorological Center forecast for rainfall through Thursday night. In the metro Richmond area, the two main computer models are forecasting copious amounts of rain. The NAM forecasts a total of 3 1/2 inches by Friday morning, and the GFS comes in just over 4 inches! So be prepared for a real soaker during the next 36-48 hours.

We'll clear out Friday afternoon and enjoy a nice weekend, with lots of sunshine. Temperatures will only be in the mid 40s Saturday afternoon, but should rise into the mid 50s on Sunday.

A Soaking Rain on the Way...Then a Pattern Change...

A broad southerly flow has boosted temperatures into the 60s over the area today. We've got another very mild day tomorrow, with afternoon highs closing in on 70. However, it won't last all that long, as a cold front will slide into the area by Thursday morning. Temperatures will be lowering through the 40s on Thursday, as a developing area of low pressure across the Gulf Coast states heads northeast. That will bring us periods of rain, which could be heavy at times. Model guidance is showing the potential for a couple of inches of rain on through Thursday night. As the storm departs early Friday morning, it's even possible a few places could end as a brief period of wet snow if the moisture lingers long enough.

A pattern change on the way...

The pattern we've been in for several weeks now that has produced below "normal" temperatures on average is probably about to come to an end. Our longer range guidance shows a broad, rather flat ridge building over the Southeast next week. That will mean milder days for us. Beyond that, the ridge may strengthen Christmas week, leading to temperatures well above average for the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, meaning a warm Christmas could be ours this year.

Friday Update on Next Week's Event...

While we may still see a few snow showers/flurries late Saturday night and early Sunday morning, our attention is clearly focused on the significant storm for the middle of next week.

Today's model runs continue to favor a storm track to our west along a front approaching the Mid-Atlantic. That means ways of moisture bringing periods of showers beginning Tuesday and continuing through Thursday. However, the last wave could still prove to be somewhat interesting on Thursday. Here's a look at the data...

First, the European model, which clearly shows the mild flow ahead of the system and waves of moisture for both Wednesday and Thursday...

Now for the GFS, first off Wednesday morning's map, which agrees with the European and shows a milder day (temperatures probably in the 50s) with waves of moisture producing showers.

The last wave is what could prove interesting. The first map shown below if for Thursday morning, with a surface low developing way down south and high pressure anchored to the north. The high is a little too far north to drive enough cold air south for wintry precipitation here.

Then here's Thursday evening's map (effective 7 P.M. Thursday), which shows the surface high moving out of the way to the northeast, while the powerful storm moves up through the Delmarva. It would be too warm for winter weather along and east of I-95, but the mountains could get some snow in this scenario. That's the latest for now...we'll see what developments evolve over the weekend.

Update on the Coming Week...

Colder air will filter back into the Commonwealth tomorrow behind our latest cold front. This will set the stage for a weekend with afternoon highs in the mid 40s. A system moving through the Great Lakes will transfer its energy to another developing low well off the coast. As the upper energy crosses our region, we may see a few snow showers/flurries very late Saturday night or early Sunday morning. Nothing more than that...

An update on next week's storm...

It still looks like we'll be dealing with a significant precipitation event for the middle of next week. While yesterday's model runs were trying to figure out a way to make this a coastal system with cold air involved, I pointed out that climatology was not favorable for a substanial winter event, at least in central and eastern Virginia. Today's model runs look more reasonable, with more energy hanging back to the southwest. Here's a look at the European model, which shows waves of moisture moving through the Mid-Atlantic. This would mean periods of rain Tuesday, Wednesday and possibly Thursday. The forecast map is effective Wednesday morning at 7 A.M.

Taking a look at the GFS run, there is more of a trend toward the coast, but clearly the upper pattern holds the trough back to the west and it doesn't go negative (leaning back to the northwest) until the storm virtually passes, meaning it just won't get that cold until after the precipitation is gone. So there have been a few big changes today, showing that it's likely we just deal with rain next week...but we've still got plenty of time to watch for future changes. Stay tuned...

Snow Chances in the Next Week?

There may be quite a bit to talk about weather-wise over the next week. It's quiet for now, with southwesterly breezes boosting temperatures close to 60 tomorrow afternoon, ahead of the next cold front. The chill behind the front will produce afternoon readings in the mid 40s on Friday. Then another disturbance in the northern stream will throw its energy to a developing system off the coast this weekend. This coastal low will be too far east to bring us any precipitation, but the upper energy transferring to the coast may be enough to trigger some morning snow showers here on Sunday.

A more significant event next week...

What's more intriguing is a storm that is likely to affect the East Coast the middle of next week. By later Tuesday, a developing low across the south will spread moisture into our area. There will be mild air ahead of this system, so expect rain to arrive by later Tuesday. What happens after that could be rather interesting. Take a look at the latest European model run showing the surface low off the Carolina coast by early Wednesday.

The GFS (American) model shows the low tracking off the coast as well, but a bit later. The following map is effective Wednesday evening at 7 P.M. This could potentially bring a change to snow, with colder air oozing in from the north and west. The big problem for winter weather lovers is the lack of a cold high to the north.

The upper level pattern shows a trough going negative over the area, but will everything happen in tandem to create the necessary conditions for a change to snow? That is very much up in the air, and climatology doesn't really favor it. However, it will be interesting to watch how this situation evolves on the model data over the next few days. Stay tuned...

A Dazzling Sky Show!

Take a look at the sky Monday evening, as Venus and Jupiter will be separated by only 2 degrees and the crescent Moon will join them to make a splendid triangle! And if you miss this, Venus and the crescent Moon will pair up again (without Jupiter) on New Year's Eve.

Check out the full story on SkyandTelescope.com!

Sunday Travel Update

Here's an update on the stormy weather we expect for travel on Sunday. Be aware that there will be many airport delays due to the weather and heavy volume of traffic. The Sunday forecast for various cities:
Washington, D.C.: Rain, 44
Baltimore, MD: Rain, 42
Philadelphia, PA: Rain (some sleet possible early on), 43
New York City, NY: Rain, 43
Boston, MA: Rain in the afternoon, 43
Pittsburgh, PA: Rain, 40
Buffalo, NY: Rain developing, mixed with wet snow, 40
Cleveland, OH: Rain (mix at the start), 40
Raleigh, NC: Rain, 51
Charlotte, NC: Showers, 49
Atlanta, GA: Showers, 54
Chicago, IL: Snow (mixed with rain at the start), 37
Orlando, FL: Windy, showers, 78
Miami, FL: Windy, thunderstorms, 83

An update on the longer range...

Yesterday, I mentioned the longer range data focusing on a potential event for the weekend of December 6-7. Today, both main longer range models (the GFS and ECMWF) are suppressing or flattening the flow during this period and holding back energy over the Southwest. This would delay any storm development until Monday or Tuesday (12/8-9) and potentially drive the system west of us, as opposed to up the coast. As I've said, we're still way too far in advance to jump to any conclusions. Tomorrow, the model data could completely change again, so stay tuned...

Sunday Travel Weather...and a Look at the Longer Range...

As I previously mentioned, a significant storm will be affecting the area on Sunday that will likely have travel implications up and down the East Coast from southern New England to Florida. Most places from the Mid-Atlantic south won't have to deal with any winter weather, but a good, cold rain is likely. Airport connections will likely experience significant delays with bad weather expected in many locations. Here is the Sunday forecast for a bunch of cities:
Washington, D.C.: Rain, 44
Baltimore: Rain, 42
Philadelphia: Rain (some sleet possible early on), 43
New York City: Rain (a mix at the start), 44
Boston: Rain in the afternoon, 43
Pittsburgh: Rain/snow showers, 39
Buffalo: Rain, mixed with wet snow, 40
Cleveland: Rain (mix at the start), 40
Raleigh: Rain, 51
Charlotte: Rain, 49
Atlanta: Showers, 55
Chicago: Snow, 37
Orlando: Windy, showers, 78
Miami: Windy, thunderstorms, 83

A storm to watch in the longer range...

I've recently been talking about the fact that the next few weeks could bring some storminess and the two main longer range computer models are showing a potential storm to impact the area next weekend (Dec 6-7). It's rather intriguing, since there is a mass of cold air trying to enter the area prior to any event that takes place. The chill will be the result of a cold front that is right now expected to arrive on Thursday the 4th. It should be interesting to watch how the models handle this development in future runs. Right now, I'm certainly not ready to jump to any conclusions, as this is still 7-8 days in advance...but it's certainly something to watch. Stay tuned...

A dry start to the long weekend...but a wet finish...

We'll get the long holiday weekend off to a terrific start with plenty of sunshine tomorrow and afternoon highs in the seasonable mid and upper 50s. We could touch 60 on Friday, with increasing clouds as a front approaches from the west. It appears this front won't be able to squeeze out any rain, and in its wake we'll see a blend of clouds and sun on Saturday. It will be a little cooler, with afternoon highs in the low 50s. The problem this weekend will come on Sunday, as an area of low pressure approaches from the west and a second low develops on the coast. An onshore flow will bring abundant moisture, and periods of rain are likely throughout the day. Out in West Virginia, it may be cold enough for some snow. Travel could be impacted up and down the eastern seaboard from NYC to Florida. Be prepared and leave plenty of time if you have to travel. There will likely be airport delays as well, as this system will probably have an impact on connection cities like Charlotte, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, New York and Chicago.

Don't forget to check out the Winter Outlook...

My 8th Annual Winter Outlook is now posted on the main site. There's a 5-minute video presentation and the full text online. Check it out!

Have a happy and safe Thanksgiving weekend!

Winter Outlook on the Radio Today...

Listen to a chat about my Winter Outlook TODAY (Wednesday) on:

Lite 98 "Kat's Cafe" at around 1:20 P.M. and
107.3 BBT "Afternoons with Tony Booth" at approximately 5:45 P.M.

Holiday Travel...the Winter Outlook is Posted!

The weather will not cause any problems for holiday travelers tomorrow across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. There will be some snow showers in the mountains of West Virginia and Pennsylvania extending north into New York State and the Great Lakes. The only potential for steady snow will come near Lakes Erie and Ontario, although these areas will be localized. Quiet weather is expected from the Southeast west to the Plains and Upper Midwest, as well as the Pacific Northwest. A big storm is entering central and southern California. Flash flood watches are posted in Los Angeles and San Diego and rain is expected to spread north and east into Nevada and Arizona, so be aware of this if you have a flight out to the West Coast.

My Winter Outlook is posted!

Yes, it's here! My 8th Annual Winter Outlook is posted on my main site and video is coming shortly! You can hear a summary of the outlook Wednesday on the radio. I'll be on "Kat's Cafe" on Lite 98 around 1:20 P.M. and "Afternoons With Tony Booth" on 107.3 BBT at approximately 5:45 P.M. Listen in!

A Wet Night...Winter Outlook Is Coming!

A cold front will bring showers to the region tonight. Our computer data suggests between .35" and .50" of rain by mid-morning tomorrow. Following the frontal passage, the sun will make an appearance tomorrow afternoon. If you're doing some early holiday travel tomorrow, morning showers will be the rule from Virginia Beach north through New England. The most significant issues will be over the interior Northeast and Great Lakes, where snow could be a problem. Cities like Detroit, Cleveland and Buffalo will get some of the white stuff and there could be some airport delays in Pittsburgh with snow showers in the forecast. Elsewhere, it looks quiet from the Southeast through the nation's mid-section and all the way to the West Coast.

The big travel day on Wednesday...

Wednesday and Thursday will bring a good amount of sunshine here, with afternoon highs near 50 on Wednesday and in the mid 50s for Thanksgiving. Holiday travel on Wednesday won't be terribly impacted by Mother Nature, although there will be more problems over the Great Lakes, with some steady snow in some locations near Lakes Erie and Ontario. Snow showers will also be scattered through the Appalachians in Pennsylvania and West Virginia. More quiet weather is expected from the Southeast through the Central U.S. and in the Pacific Northwest. A storm system entering California could bring some rain to Southern California and Nevada.

The rest of the holiday weekend here...

A rather potent system passing to our south may bring some showers later Friday and Saturday. The Southeast could see a soaking rain from this disturbance before it exits the coast later Saturday. Cooler air will be back with us later in the weekend and there are some signs that more cold air will be taking over next week. Our longer range computer data is having trouble figuring out all the details, but I have a hunch that we're going to see some snow during the first two weeks of December (possibly as early as next week). Keep that in mind...you heard it hear first...and we might be talking some accumulation!

Winter Outlook coming...

With all this talk of cold and maybe even some winter weather, I know everyone is anxious for the Winter Outlook. I'm putting the finishing touches on it, and it will be posted on my main site either tomorrow night or Wednesday, and I'll be giving a summary on Wednesday during "Kat's Cafe" on Lite 98 and "Afternoons with Tony Booth" on WBBT-107.3. Stay tuned...

Winter Outlook Coming Soon!

Many of you have been asking when my annual Winter Outlook will be issued, and the answer is early next week! Stay tuned...

In the mean time, we have our first taste of winter in the air tonight. We saw scattered snow showers and flurries throughout the day, with rather blustery conditions. The wind will gradually diminish, but the coldest air of the season thus far will be sitting over us through tomorrow.

Check out the new video weather webcast on the main site tonight...mike-goldberg.com. You can also reach the site from richmondforecast.com.

Leonid Meteor Shower Peaks Early Monday Morning

Every November, we talk about the Leonid meteor shower, which will peak very early Monday morning. I actually saw a meteor shoot through the sky last week, which was likely part of the Taurids, that peak in early November.

The Leonids go on for the next week, but this year's show is not expected to be anything special. Activity will probably be low, and even if there are outbursts, the Moon will be rather bright and likely get in the way. If you want to take a shot at seeing the Leonids, the best time is between midnight and the beginning of morning twilight. The most active mornings are expected to be Monday and Tuesday. The Leonids originate from the Comet Temple-Tuttle and if you know your sky, you want to look toward the constellation Leo.

The next sky show for meteors will be the Geminids, which peak on December 13th.

Tornado Watch In Effect Until 7 P.M.

A Tornado Watch is in effect for central and eastern Virginia until 7 P.M. A developing line of storms is moving into the area. Large scale forcing ahead of a cold front will likely lead to intensification. Dangerous lightning, damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, hail to 1" in diameter and isolated tornadoes are possible in and near the watch area.

CLICK HERE FOR CURRENT SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS IN VIRGINIA

A Saturday Soaker...

Moisture moving in from the south ahead of an approaching cold front will mean showers overnight for us and some pretty good rain to start the weekend. As the front moves in, a few thunderstorms are possible as well, producing local downpours. Our two main computer models are projecting about 1.25" in the Metro Richmond area, so a healthy rainfall indeed. While the weekend will start very wet, it will end on a dryer note, with a blend of sun and clouds on Sunday. Temperature-wise, we'll be up and down, with readings in the upper 60s and low 70s tomorrow, dipping back down into the 50s on Sunday.

A parade of chill arrives early next week...

A series of disturbances will roll through the Mid-Atlantic early next week, ushering in progressively colder air. There will probably even be snow showers in the air over the higher elevations to the west, especially on Tuesday. High temperatures in the Richmond area will be in the mid 50s on Monday, dipping into the 40s by Wednesday. Overnight lows should get well down into the 20s mid-week, so we're in for a real taste of chill. No major storms are expected throughout the week.

Unsettled the Next Few Days...A Real Cold Blast Next Week

The clouds have moved in and will stick around the next few days. Rain chances will be with us Thursday and Friday, with a warm front slowly lifting into the area. This will provide rising temperatures on Friday, probably into the upper 60s. We'll stay mild on Saturday, but more showers are possible as a cold front rolls in from the west.

Cooler air later in the weekend...

That front will bring cooler air to the region again on Sunday, with afternoon temperatures in the mid 50s. We'll dip into the lower 30s and some 20s Monday morning, but as the upper trough kicks out to the east, temperatures will moderate Monday afternoon. However, this will be short-lived, because...

A real cold blast for mid-to-late next week...

Another trough digging across the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley will bring a reinforcing shot of colder air by Wednesday. This will likely be the coldest air of the season so far and it may very well stay chilly through the following weekend (November 22-23). The European model upper level chart below shows the deep trough over the East Coast next Friday (November 21).

A Cold Night...

We're in for a cold night tonight, as temperatures will dip into the upper 20s and lower 30s by morning, under clear skies. Another dry day is on the way tomorrow, with temperatures rebounding into the mid and upper 50s during the afternoon. We'll start to see some clouds later in the day, as moisture streaks in from the southwest.

Unsettled later in the week....

We're still looking at unsettled weather later in the week, as moisture takes over in advance of an upper trough in the Central U.S. The highest rain chances will probably be on Thursday, but showers will prevail into Friday as well. Temperatures should rise into the 60s, before a cold front crosses the state on Saturday. This front will probably bring a few more showers on Saturday, before dry and much cooler air takes over for Sunday.

Temperatures moderate early next week, but then...

The deeping trough is anchored on the East Coast Sunday, but should lift out quickly on Monday. That means temperatures will moderate just a bit. However, while earlier computer model runs suggested temperatures could be on the rise, it now appears another trough will deepen over the Central U.S. and shift east, bringing more chilly weather later next week into the following weekend (November 22-23). As I always like to say, stay tuned...

Cooler Air Moving In...

After a taste of 70-degree weather the past two days, we'll be getting somewhat cooler tomorrow. However, afternoon temperatures will still be in the low to mid 60s, about where they should be this time of the year. Dry conditions will be the rule as well, as high pressure builds over the region by Monday. This area of high pressure will set up a wedge along the East Coast Tuesday and Wednesday, while moisture tries to invade the region from the southwest. It appears only clouds will get in here later Tuesday and Wednesday, although a few light showers can't be ruled out.

Unsettled weather possible later in the week...

As the moisture increases, eventually our rain chances will go up a bit Thursday and Friday, although there may be a split in the deeper moisture over our area. That means we may not end up with much rain. We'll continue to monitor future computer model runs to see how they handle this developing weather situation. Either way, another strong cold front will cross the region by next Saturday, bringing some very chilly conditions to finish next weekend.

And beyond...

A deep trough sits over the area next Sunday (as seen on the European model below), but is already lifting out of the region on Monday. That means temperatures should moderate rather quickly, possibly returning above average much of the week of November 17th. The real cold will stay over the northern Rockies and Plains.

Rain For Election Day...

If you've been following my forecast the last couple of days, you know I've been concerned about coastal development and the potential for rain to dampen Election Day. Well it's happening now, as moisture is quickly invading Southeast and Central Virginia. A steadiy rain will be developing and continuing through the day. Looking at the latest NAM model forecast for the early afternoon, you can clearly see a coastal trough spreading moisture over much of the region. A coastal low will develop that should bring a pretty good dousing to the area. The latest computer model output is showing some impressive numbers. The evening run of the NAM model puts out about 0.75" by 7 P.M. Tuesday evening, with another 0.56 through Wednesday evening. The GFS (from this afternoon's run), which was the first model hinting at a wet Election Day, shows 0.68" by 7 P.M. Tuesday and another 0.90" by Wednesday evening. So both main short range models show the potential of a good inch and a half of rain.

Clearing and milder later in the week...

Looking at the 72-hour forecast chart from the NAM below, a distinct area of low pressure is moving away from the East Coast. This will allow our skies to clear on Thursday, with temperatures heading to near 70 degrees. The mild weather will continue into Friday, before the next cold front arrives to bring another change over the weekend.

Freeze Warning West of I-95

A Freeze Warning is in effect overnight west of I-95 from 4 A.M. until 9 A.M. As winds diminish, the temperatures will tumble below the freezing mark in these counties: Goochland, Powhatan, Louisa, Amelia, Fluvanna, Cumberland, Nottoway, Prince Edward, Buckingham...and points south and west. Freeze conditions will likely kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.

Moderation on the way...

Temperatures are still expected to rise later this week, into the mid 60s on Friday and probably 70+ on Saturday. In fact, it looks like a great day to start the weekend. The next cold front will slide through the state Saturday night. It basically looks like a dry frontal passage, although I can't rule out an isolated shower or two.

Not as cold behind this next front...

Temperatures behind the next front will average near 60 during the afternoon and in the upper 30s and lower 40s at night. Don't forget that early Sunday morning (at 2 A.M.), we turn our clocks back as we return to Eastern Standard Time.

Election Day looks dry as of now...

Tuesday still looks dry as a ridge of high pressure dominates. This will keep temperatures at or above seasonal averages. The next shot of cold air is still on schedule to arrive next weekend (November 9-10).

Cold Blast Moving Into Virginia...

A blast of chilly air is entering Virginia tonight, and below average temperatures are expected for the next several days, despite plenty of sunshine. The 30-year normals are a high in the mid 60s and low in the low 40s. Tonight, a Freeze Watch is in effect from Buckingham County south and west. Showers will taper later this evening and skies should begin to clear prior to sunrise. Gusty breezes will dominate Tuesday, and skies should be partly sunny with afternoon temperatures in the mid 50s. The next couple of nights should produce temperatures in the low to mid 30s in city, with outlying areas dipping into the 20s!

Milder later this week, then another cold front...

Temperatures should rebound on Friday, reaching the mid 60s during the afternoon and readings on Saturday could jump above 70 degrees before the next front comes rumbling through. This will cause temperatures to take another dip, but the next surge probably won't be as chilly as the current one.

Election Day and beyond...

High pressure will inch off the coast in time for Election Day, leading to an increase in moisture...at least clouds, and possibly some rain. Let's hope any rain holds off until after the polls close. An upper ridge builds over the East next week, moderating our temperatures. However, a strong cold front appears on the model data, due to arrive either late Friday or next weekend with the coldest air of the season thus far. Stay tuned...

FREEZE WARNING tonight north and west of Richmond

A Freeze Warning is in effect overnight for the following counties in central Virginia north and west of Richmond: Hanover, Caroline, Goochland, Louisa, Fluvanna, Cumberland, Amelia, Nottoway, Prince Edward, Buckingham, Charlotte. The warning also includes the Roanoke area.

Temperatures are expected to dip below the freezing mark for a couple of hours over this area. The warning is officially in effect from 3 A.M. until 9 A.M.

New Posts Coming Soon...

The weather has been pretty quiet recently, but there will be more to talk in the near future. Look for a regular posts to return the week of October 20th, and my annual Winter Outlook will be issued in mid-November!

A Rainy End to the Week...Tropical Storm Kyle forms...

The well-defined area of low pressure along the Carolina coast is not tropical, but it continues to wreak havoc on the Mid-Atlantic coast. The storm is producing some heavy rain, strong winds, coastal flooding, high surf and dangerous rip currents.

We will continue to see periods of heavy rain through the night and during Friday. The gusty winds will gradually diminish, but the breeze will still kick up to 15 and even 20 mph at times, with higher gusts along coastal areas. The system will move inland and then track northeast through Virginia on Saturday. This means we're in for more wet weather, although it will be a bit more showery. It should begin to dry out a bit on Sunday.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Kyle has formed well east of the Bahamas. It is moving north at about 13 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. Kyle could become a hurricane by Saturday as it tracks over the open waters of the Atlantic. At this point, as you can see from the hurricane model tracks below, Kyle is not a threat to the East Coast of the U.S., although it should help to maintain some high seas along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts through the weekend. For the latest information on Kyle, visit the National Hurricane Center...

Watch LIVE Coverage of Hurricane Ike

Hurricane Ike has made landfall in Texas. Watch live coverage at the following link:

LIVE COVERAGE OF HURRICANE IKE

(image courtesy Liam Gumley/SSEC/CIMSS)

Hanna--Saturday Afternoon Update

The heaviest rain bands have now moved out of the Metro Richmond area. There will be a few lingering showers and gusty winds will continue to plague the area into the early evening. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph are possible in the Metro Richmond area, with sustained winds of 25-35 with gusts to 50 mph near the coast. These winds will gradually diminish during the evening.

As of the 2 P.M. NHC advisory, Hanna is just northeast of Williamsbusrg and moving rapidly to the northeast at 25 mph. The storm center will be near southern New England later tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph and while little change in strength is likely, the storm is expected to lose tropical characteristics tomorrow.

Hanna Overnight Update...

Hanna is charging toward the SC/NC coastline and will make landfall during the early morning hours. It will then move northeast up the coast, drenching the Mid-Atlantic and eventually impacting the New England coast as well. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the entire area, as a general 3-4 inch rainfall is likely, with local amounts up to 10 inches. Tropical storm force winds are possible throughout the day along the coast and isolated tornadoes are also possible.

Here's the rundown on what to expect:

LOCATION, MOVEMENT AND STRENGTH (as of the 11 P.M. NHC advisory)

-- About 140 miles south-southwest of Wilmington, NC and 60 miles east-southeast of Charleston, SC
-- Moving north at 20 mph
-- Maximum sustained winds are at 70 mph...it's still possible Hanna could become a hurricane before making landfall along the southern NC or northern SC coast
-- Tropical storm force winds extend outward 260 miles from the center

EXPECTED RAINFALL & WIND

-- A general 3-4 inch rainfall is likely across central and eastern Virginia, with local amounts up to 10 inches
-- Sustained winds near the coast of 30-40 mph with gusts over 50 mph
-- Sustained winds in Metro Richmond of 15-30 mph with gusts to around 40 mph possible

CURRENT WATCHES/WARNINGS (as of the 11 P.M. NHC advisory)

Tropical Storm Warning: From Edisto Beach, SC north to Watch Hill, RI (including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, all of Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potamac, Washington, D.C., Delaware Bay, New York Harbor and Long Island Sound

Hurricane Watch: From north of South Santee River, SC to Currituck Beach Light, NC, including Pamlico Sound

Tropical Storm Watch: From Watch Hill, RI to Merrimack River, MA, including Block Island, Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket

FORECAST TRACK & INTENSITY

Below is the late night hurricane model output (courtesy of Colorado State University), with the forecast track from the various runs and the intensity forecast...

Hanna Racing North...8 P.M. Update

It's showtime for Tropical Storm Hanna along the East Coast. The storm is now located just under 200 miles south-southwest of Wilimington, NC. As it moves up along the coast overnight, we'll see the outer rainbands bring some heavier showers...with the heaviest rain coming tomorrow. Very heavy rain is likely to occur between 10 A.M. and 5 P.M., with a Flash Flood Watch posted for the entire area. Tropical storm force winds are possible throughout the day along the coast and isolated tornadoes are also possible. Here's the rundown on what to expect:

LOCATION, MOVEMENT AND STRENGTH (as of the 8 P.M. NHC advisory)

-- About 200 miles south-southwest of Wilmington, NC
-- Moving north at 20 mph
-- Maximum sustained winds are at 70 mph and Hanna could become a hurricane before making landfall late tonight in either northern SC or southern NC
-- Tropical storm force winds extend outward 290 miles from the center

EXPECTED RAINFALL & WIND

-- A general 3-4 inch rainfall is likely across central and eastern Virginia, with local amounts up to 10 inches
-- Sustained winds near the coast of 30-40 mph with gusts over 50 mph
-- Sustained winds in Metro Richmond of 15-30 mph with gusts to around 40 mph possible

CURRENT WATCHES/WARNINGS (as of the 8 P.M. NHC advisory)

Tropical Storm Warning: From Altamaha Sound, GA north to Sandy Hook, NJ (including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, all of Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potamac, Washington, D.C. and Delaware Bay

Hurricane Watch: From north of Edisto Beach, SC to Currituck Beach Light, NC, including Pamlico Sound

Tropical Storm Watch: From north of Sandy Hook, NJ to Merrimack River, MA, including Long Island, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket

THE FORECAST TRACK & INTENSITY

Below is the latest hurricane model output, with the forecast track from the various runs and the intensity forecast...

Hanna to Bring a Quick Shot of Rain Our Way...

Tropical Storm Hanna is still heading toward the East Coast. The forecast track curves the storm up in the direction of eastern North Carolina and then near Virginia Beach before heading up off the New England coast. The forward speed will increase as the storm heads north. Most likely, Hanna will pass closest to VA Beach Saturday morning (see the official NHC forecast track below). This will bring a slug of moisture to the region. A few showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop in advance of the storm later tomorrow afternoon and evening, with the heaviest rain coming on Saturday. In terms of short-term model projections, the NAM brings nearly 2" of rain to Richmond, with the GFS closer to 3". The heaviest rain will likely be east of I-95, but that all depends on the exact track. Right now, you can see the hurricane model suite below is leaning to the east. Stay tuned for updates...

Forecast Tracks for Hanna, Ike and Josephine...

The tropics continue to be extremely active, with three storms following in the wake of Gustav. Central Virginia will likely see rain from Hanna later Friday into Saturday. More on that coming as the storm gets closer. In the mean time, here are links to the National Hurricane Center forecast tracks for Hanna, Ike and Josephine...

FORECAST TRACK FOR HANNA

FORECAST TRACK FOR IKE

FORECAST TRACK FOR JOSEPHINE

Stay Tuned to Tropical Weather...

FYI, I'll be "off" the next couple of days and may not have a chance to produce new blog entries. So to stay up with Gustav and Hanna, check out the following links from the National Hurricane Center...

INFORMATION ON GUSTAV

INFORMATION ON HANNA

As of late Friday night, Gustav still looks to be on an eventual track to western Louisiana or possibly the Texas coast. There is a good possibility it becomes a major hurricane (at least Category 3). Hanna's future track is a bit more uncertain, and it too could strengthen to hurricane status. Yet another tropical wave south of the Cape Verde Islands could develop and eventually become Tropical Storm Ike. This is the time the tropics are usually getting busy and this year is no exception.

I'll send an update when I can during the week. In the mean time, enjoy your holiday weekend!

The Latest Tropical Weather--Gustav and Hanna

GUSTAV

Gustav is expected to become a hurricane as it tracks from southern Jamaica through the northwest Carribbean. The forecast track takes the storm near the western tip of Cuba Saturday evening and then into the Gulf of Mexico. The latest computer model suite continues to focus attention on a potential landfall along the Louisiana coast early next week. It's important to realize that a U.S. landfall is still many days away and computer projections could easily change. However, it would appear the the Louisiana and Texas coasts have the best shot at seeing a landfall. In terms of intensity, most of the models bring the storm to at least category 2 hurricane status, with several making Gustav a dangerous category 3 before landfall. With the very warm waters of the Gulf, significant intensification is a possibly and the storm will be monitored very closely by those along the Gulf Coast through the holiday weekend.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST TRACK FOR GUSTAV

HANNA

Meanwhile, Hanna is out in the Atlantic, about 260 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands as of very late Thursday night. The storm is expected to intensify and possibly be a hurricane by Saturday. Hanna is expected to remain over the open waters for several days, moving generally west-northwest, but a southward component could enter the picture later in the weekend. This would be due to strong northerly winds in the mid and upper levels behind a trough swinging off the East Coast, indicated by virtually all of our computer models.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST TRACK FOR HANNA

What's Left of Fay Could Bring Us Rain... and Gustav Enters the Picture!

The remnants of Tropical Storm Fay will be inching northeast toward the Mid-Atlantic over the next 24-48 hours. There is some disagreement in how much rain we may get, as the popular GFS/ECMWF models show a good slug of rain entering the region by Wednesday, with the threat of precipitation continuing through Friday. Meanwhile the NAM model shows the axis of significant moisture remaining west, with a drier scenario. At this point, with an increasing onshore flow, I have to believe our rain chances will increase on Wednesday and we may receive some decent rainfall on Thursday, lingering into Friday what's left of the system crosses the region. Stay tuned for more...

The newest storm on the horizon is Tropical Storm Gustav. Gustav is located south-southeast of Haiti and moving northwest at about 14 mph as of late afternoon/early evening. The forward speed is expected to decrease over the next couple of days, with the center likely moving over Haiti tomorrow. With strenghtening expected, Gustav could become a hurricane prior to moving over land. In the longer term, it is forecast to move over Cuba and potentially end up in the Gulf of Mexico. Below, you can see the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center, along with the computer model projections from their afternoon runs.

Fay Update--Early Saturday Morning

Tropical Storm Fay is now back over water, about 50 miles south of Tallahassee, FL as of 11 P.M. Friday night. The storm is moving west at about 8 mph and regaining strength. With this motion expected to continue, Fay will be near or over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast during the weekend. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Suwanee River, FL westward to the Mississippi/Alabama border. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from west of the Mississippi/Alabama border to the mouth of the Mississippi River. The watch does not include Lake Pontchartrain or the city of New Orleans.

As seen in the computer model tracks, Fay should stay across the Deep South the next couple of days. The storm is expected to produce total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches across the northern Florida Peninsula, the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, southern Alabama and southern Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. Additional rainfall of 1-2 inches is possible over central and southern Florida in the outer rain bands associated with Fay. Isolated storm total rainfall amounts of 20-30 inches have been observed across portions of the east-central coast of Florida.

Eventually, moisture from Fay is expected to make its way northeast into the Mid-Atlantic. Most likely, clouds will be on the increase by Tuesday afternoon and the earliest we would see any rain is probably Tuesday night. Rain chances will then increase Wednesday into Thursday.

Fay Update...Late Thursday Night

You've probably heard about the tremendous amount of rain and flooding over central Florida the last couple of days. Here are some of totals as of late Thursday afternoon:

Melbourne NWS Office: 18.21"
Cape Canaveral: 20.03" (through 5 AM Thursday)
Palm Shores: 19.67"
Hobe Sound: 13.84"
Jensen Beach: 12.95"
Port St. Lucie: 11.52"
Palm Shores: 11.17"
Stuart: 11.05"

Malabar: 10.48"
Fort Pierce: 8.98"
Palm Bay: 7.31"
Cocoa: 5.72"

As of late night, Fay is drifting west across the Florida Peninsula and dumping heavy rains over northeast Florida. It is about 25 miles west-northwest of Daytona Beach, FL (11 P.M. NHC advisory). The westward movement is expected to continue with a gradual shift to the west-northwest during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds near 60 mph are expected to come down a bit as gradual weakening occurs over land. Additional flooding and isolated tornadoes are possible over northeast Florida, southeastern Georgia and even southern South Carolina through Friday.

The forecast track from the hurricane models continuesto show the storm remaining over the Deep South through early next week, with continued weakening. Eventually some of the moisture may make its way up into the Mid-Atlantic by later Tuesday and Wednesday. We shall see...

Fay Update--Early Wednesday Morning

Fay continues to drift north-northeast across the Florida Peninsula and should be off the East Coast later today. It is likely to stay near the northeast coast of Florida through Thursday. The storm has weakened a bit, with maximum sustained winds near 50 mph, but restrengthening probably will occur when it moves back over the Atlantic. Heavy rain and isolated tornadoes are the main threat right now along the East Coast of Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from north of Jupiter Inlet to Flager Beach, and for Lake Okeechobee. A Hurricane Watch is in effect from north of Flagler Beach to Altamaha Sound, GA and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from north of Altamaha Sound to the Savannah River.

In terms of the latest computer data, the hurricane models continue to show the storm getting blocked by a big ridge of high pressure developing along the East Coast. This will likely steer the storm back inland over northern Florida and then west-northwestward by the weekend. There is some disagreement as to the exact track and whether it will stay inland, moving over southern Georgia and Alabama...or whether it could potentially move over the waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico. Either way, we here in central Virginia will not be impacted by the storm until at least early next week. The longer range computer data does show the possibility of significant moisture from the system moving north along the coast by either Tuesday or Wednesday, so stay tuned!

Fay Update--Tuesday Midday

Fay is now over Florida and will move slowly north-northeast across the peninsula through tonight. It should then move back over water near the east coast of northern Florida tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph, but some weakening is likely tonight as the storm remains over land. Then some restrengthening is expected tomorrow as it moves back over water. General rainfall totals over southern and east-central Florida are expected to be between 5 and 10 inches, with some isolated amounts possibly near 15 inches. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the east coast of Florida from north of Ocean Reef to Flager Beach, including Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from north of Flagler Beach to Fernandina Beach.

In terms of Fay's future track, you can clearly see looking at the model suite above that the latest consensus forecast takes the storm back inland over northern FL and southern GA, as a ridge of high pressure to the north blocks its movement up the coast. This means the storm should stay away from central Virginia through the week and the upcoming weekend. However, a persistent onshore flow between Fay and the strong area of high pressure could produce a few widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorm Friday through Sunday. Early next week, if the storm holds together, it could bring moisture to the Mid-Atlantic as the ridge gradually gives way.

Fay Update--Very Early Tuesday Morning

Fay is expected to cross the coast of southwest Florida this morning and continue inland over central Florida during the next 12-24 hours. The storm could approach hurricane strength near landfall, but will then weaken as it moves inland. General rainfall amounts over central and southern Florida are expected to range between 4 and 8 inches, with maximum storm totals near 10 inches. Isolated tornadoes are possible throughout the day over central Florida.

As for the storm's future path, the hurricane models show that the steering currents will break down, as a large ridge building over the eastern U.S. will block the storm's northward movement. There is a lot of uncertainty in the model tracks, but for central Virginia, any immediate threat through Friday is clearly lower than earlier runs. Assuming the storm stays down south and over land, it will gradually weaken. However, a persistent southeast flow over the region could lead to widely scattered thunderstorms developing during the afternoon and early evening Friday through Sunday. Also, longer range computer data shows the system could still have an impact on the region early next week, bringing moisture northward. That's still too early to pinpoint, but stay tuned...

Here are nighttime hurricane model plots...

Fay Update--Midday Monday

As of midday, Tropical Storm Fay is located about 65 miles east-northeast of Havana, Cuba and 70 miles south-southeast of Key West, FL. It is now moving north-northwest at 13 mph, a bit slower than yesterday. This reduction in forward speed is expected to continue through tonight. Fay will be approaching the southwest Florida coast tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds are at 60 mph, with some strengthening likely tonight and Fay will probably be a hurricane before it makes landfall. Therefore, a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the southwest Florida coast from Flamingo to Anna Maria Island. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the east coast of Florida from Cocoa Beach south, including Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Key West. Meanwhile, a Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Florida Mainland east of Flamingo to Card Sound Bridge, and along the Florida West Coast north of Anna Maria to Tarpon Springs.

Across South Florida, general rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with maximum amounts of 10 inches near the Florida Keys. Isolated tornadoes are possible over the Keys and extreme South Florida through the night.

As you can see below, the forecast model suite is coming into some consensus, showing a track through central Florida and up into eastern Georgia by Thursday. After that, there is some disagreement, although the general consensus brings Fay north into eastern Tennessee and Kentucky. This means the core of heavy rain may very well avoid central Virginia. However, a persistent southeast flow developing between the storm and high pressure just to our north will likely increase moisture levels and possibly produce at least some scattered thunderstorms later in the week. Stay tuned...

Tropical Storm Fay--Sunday Afternoon Update

Fay is now located just south of the central Cuba coast. As expected, it has strengthened a bit over the last 24 hours, with maximum sustained winds now at 50 mph. Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane Watches remain in effect for much of Cuba. As for the U.S., a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Florida Keys from south of Ocean Reef to Key West...and along the Florida Mainland from Card Sound Bridge westward to Anna Maria Island. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas and a Tropical Storm Watch is posted along the southeast Florida coast from Ocean Reef northward to Jupiter Inlet...as well as Lake Okeechobee.

Some continued strengthening is expected tonight, and Fay could be near hurricane strength as it approaches western Cuba very late tonight or early tomorrow morning. The storm is currently moving west-northwest at 17 mph (as of Sunday afternoon), but a gradual turn to the north with a slower forward speed is expected by midday Monday. Following the National Hurricane Center forecast track above, Fay will likely be near the Florida Keys Monday night.
As for the long term, the computer data suite (the early morning run shown below) still has a lot of disagreement, but there is some consensus that Fay could end up tracking into the Southeast U.S. during the middle of the work week. With a significant area of high pressure just to our north, it looks like at the very least a rather persistent southeast wind flow will set up across Virginia and the Carolinas. This will lead to an increasing rain threat, and depending on the track of Fay, some significant rain is a possibility, so stay tuned...

Tropical Storm Fay...

Tropical Storm Fay is the latest system in the Atlantic, now sitting just south of eastern Cuba as of late afternoon. Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane Watches are in effect across much of Cuba, with a Tropical Storm Watch posted for the Central Bahamas, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph and while the system has weakened slightly, it is expected to gain strength during the next couple of days. Fay is currently moving west, and will be very close to the coast of southern Cuba over the next 24-36 hours, likely moving inland over western Cuba either late Sunday night or Monday as it turns to the north-northwest or even north. This direction change is due to a forecast weakness in a ridge sitting over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The model data is not in agreement on exactly where this turn will take place and how dramatic it will be. Several models are now forecasting a landfall over south/southeastern Florida, while others favor a track along the western Florida coast. It is still too early to tell whether Fay will have an impact on our weather here in Virginia, but it is possible that it could produce some rain here late in the week. We'll just have to continue to monitor its progress and future computer model runs. For now, here's the latest track from the National Hurricane Center...