Tuesday, January 13, 2009

The Arctic Chill Arrives...Snow Possible On Sunday...

The Arctic chill is right on schedule and we'll certainly be feeling it the next few days. Look for afternoon temperatures mainly in the 30s tomorrow. A disturbance crossing the region on Thursday may produce a few flurries and will usher in the core of the cold air for Friday and Saturday. High temperatures on Friday will only be in the upper 20s, with overnight lows in the teens and single digits. Then things get interesting...

Accumulating snow possible on Sunday...

If you've been reading the blog the last couple of days, you know I've been intrigued by a system that could bring some snow here on Sunday. Well I'm becoming a bit more confident that this may very well happen. The European model has been very consistent and presents a very logical forecast solution. While it has been an outlier in the model suite, it has been a consistent performer during the winter months along the East Coast, not only this year, but most in the recent past. Below are two sets up maps from the European run today. The first set is valid Sunday morning. We can clearly see the developing system moving across Kentucky in the digging upper trough over the eastern U.S. This would spread a swath of moisture over us Sunday morning and with the air extremely cold aloft, snow would be likely. By Monday morning, the system has redeveloped along the coast and moved north, with yet another disturbance coming down in the trough over the Great Lakes. That would keep us pretty cold early next week, especially if we have snow cover on the ground at that point. The Gulf of Mexico would virtually be shut off from this system, so we're not talking abundant moisture here. However, a powdery snow could produce several fluffy inches Sunday afternoon and evening. Of course we're still several days away and a lot can change, as we know all too well around here, so stay tuned for updates!

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