Tomorrow Is Clearly The Time To Watch...

As mentioned in my early morning post, tomorrow is now becoming the "hot" time to watch for potential snow. There are still timing and strength differences amongst the model suite, but there is clearly some agreement on the general pattern and set-up. The upper level energy swinging into the eastern U.S. trough (still in a couple of pieces) will provide some lift for surface development, which should eventually get its act together along the East Coast. What happens before that is key to our snow chances, as once the low moves off the coast, it should take most of the moisture away with it.

So as the upper energy approaches tomorrow midday, some light precipitation is likely to break out by the early/mid-afternoon. The temperature profiles indicate that it should be snow in Metro Richmond and most places in our area, although I would not be surprised to see a mix or even rain to start well south and east of town (Williamsburg, Emporia, South Hill). Evaporational cooling should enable basically all of the precipitation to be snow by early evening. I think the key to accumulation potential will be how long the precipitation continues into the evening and possibly overnight. This is where the model solutions are particularly having trouble. They have wavered back and forth as to how fast the surface low develops and moves. If it strengthens closer to the coast, then we'll see light snow (maybe even a few heavier bursts) into the night and we could easily wake up to an inch or two Tuesday morning. If it moves faster and farther off the coast before taking shape, then we'll lose out on any decent precipitation. I favor the middle of the road right now, basically the light accumulation that I've been promoting for several days now...so my best bet is up to around an inch or so. This doesn't mean everyone will see that...but it's certainly a possibility for any location in our region (central Virginia). As always, stay tuned...