I'm hearing rumors of snow...why?...
I had many folks ask me today whether we were going to see snow early next week and said that's what they had heard from other sources. I must say I was quite surprised. The computer data is very consistent with an inland storm track, which would bring rain to our area, as temperatures would be rather mild. As the storm passes, colder air will plunge southward into our area, but most of the moisture should be gone by then. Bottom line, I really don't think we're going to see any snow (the exception being up in the mountains). The only reason I could see a forecast of snow is if one reads the early morning run of the GFS verbatim. It is a faster storm track, with a lot of moisture on the backside. I really don't buy the solution. The track is fine, but two things don't line up. First, the digging upper trough and deepening surface system should lead to a bit slower forward motion of the storm, like the European model has. Second, the abundant moisture on the backside just doesn't make sense. Our flow will be downslope by then, and even though the cold air will come plunging in, it will be much drier air as well. Either way, we will be dealing with high winds from later Monday night into Wednesday due to the strength of this storm. Check out the computer model run solutions below. First is the European...with the storm center right over Virginia Tuesday morning. Below that, if you want some fantasy...look at the GFS. The storm is WAY north of us (over northern New York early Tuesday afternoon), but there's a good slug of moisture over us. This is probably due to the upper trough, but the downslope flow will probably shut down such a possibility. Being that this event is still many days away, anything could change...so I guess you never know. But honestly, I see this as just a big rain and wind maker for us.
2 comments:
Great analysis. Those rumors you hear are from the wishcasters and snow geese, like myself that hold on to hope or it is the Ukrops doing their bit to stimulate the economy.
Do you think this storms sets us up for a better possibility down the road? The folks on Eastern are talking about this type of storm with the flow or tilt that you mentioned could kick the NAO negative which could setup a block that would enhance our chances of snow here in the Mid Atlantic with any systems.
Hey Mike,
Some of the TV Stations has had rain/snow in the forecast last few days, with no model support, they are starting to go toward rain know, we never can get a perfect setup around here for big snow storm been like this for like 3 years know...
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